Tom Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 While much of the focus in the wx dept has been on the ongoing historic cold wave, there is a decent Clipper that will be traversing the region later this week on the heels of a dramatic warm-up. Let's discuss... Models are actually painting advisory snows...temps will be very cold so I expect ratios will be rather high with this one. Some of this snow will fall on the last day of this memorable January and pad the stats for the month as a whole. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Looks like the main energy passes to my south. Hopefully, it can nudge a bit north. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 12z GFS... 12z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I'm more worried about that rain and warm coming after this, but it looks like how this turns out will affect what comes right after. Maybe in a perfect world this will dump 3 on me and then the rain and heat will take 3 away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I'm more worried about that rain and warm coming after this, but it looks like how this turns out will affect what comes right after. Maybe in a perfect world this will dump 3 on me and then the rain and heat will take 3 away.Luckily, the warm spell coming is brief w little rain. I would hate to have my beautiful snowpack lessen. I think since the ground has been so cold and w snow otg, it will not get as warm as predicted. Idk, we will see. Hopefully, models change for the weekend and stay colder. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Models showing pretty decent snows into N IL and Indiana.Here's the RGEM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 12z FV3... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 12z FV3... Too bad this will be rained upon this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Looks like it doesnt get together til it is east of here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 WWA's issued for parts of E IA/IL/IN for 2-4" while most of N IL should see 1-3" of snow. Some peeps in E IA may score a few inches if the banding sets up just right. 06z RGEM.... 06z FV3... HRRR... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 06z Euro...I could see this system over performing for some members on here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 This system will develop rapidly today. We are watching in Maryland.... 2 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 Its -17 and just started snowing. I dont think I've ever seen it snow at that cold of a temp. Amazing 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 Possible flurries for my area. Hopefully, it can trend a little more north, otherwise, peeps on here that get this clipper, enjoy the couple of inches of powda.. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 Huge cottonballs now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 This is the hardest I've seen it snow yet this season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 Possible flurries for my area. Hopefully, it can trend a little more north, otherwise, peeps on here that get this clipper, enjoy the couple of inches of powda.. Shocked to see 70% Snow likely in my grid for tomorrow. Radar attm seems like this wouldn't come anywhere near mby. Might just be a light coating via a lake response as the SW passes by to the south? Won't mean much with the impending torch anyways. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 Shocked to see 70% Snow likely in my grid for tomorrow. Radar attm seems like this wouldn't come anywhere near mby. Might just be a light coating via a lake response as the SW passes by to the south? Won't mean much with the impending torch anyways. Hopefully, the torch wont be too severe. I heard 50s might be visiting our grid. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 Hopefully, the torch wont be too severe. I heard 50s might be visiting our grid. You should know betta by now. The one thing that's been a lock this winter is that the torches have been robust over-achievers across SMI. Will be shocked if I don't see another 57F and rain when all is said-n-done Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 A small bit of frost depth should keep the melting one-directional which is better than some scenarios. Soil temperatures taken under grass covered soil at 7AM EST/8AM EDT:............................................................: Station Soil Temperature (degrees F):............................................................:NWS Grand Rapids: 2 in: : 31NWS Grand Rapids: 4 in: : 31NWS Grand Rapids: 8 in: : 32NWS Grand Rapids: 20 in: : 34NWS Grand Rapids: 40 in: : 38NWS Grand Rapids: 60 in: : 36:............................................................Frost depth under grass covered soil at 7AM EST/8AM EDT:............................................................: Station Frost Depth: Name Inches:............................................................:: Big Rapids : M: NWS Grand Rapids : 4: Grandville : 10: Hastings : 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 Bout an inch of cotton here at work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 It's been lightly snowing for awhile, but isn't accumulating much so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 we had around an inch in CR when I went to lunch break at about noon. Still snowing pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 Radar trends suggesting this will barely clip us or miss us all together Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 Radar trends suggesting this will barely clip us or miss us all togetherI don't think so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 I don't think soThink we’ll get more than a dusting to .5” out of this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 Think we’ll get more than a dusting to .5” out of this?I still believe 1"-2" for our area but I have been wrong before. DGZ still looking favorable which will help in rates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 I still believe 1"-2" for our area but I have been wrong before. DGZ still looking favorable which will help in ratesI hope so. Going to need all we can get given Sunday/Monday forecast. Temps in the 50s, not dropping below 40 and rain. Not good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 It's been snowing for several hours and good sized flakes, not sure what we're at since I'm at work and can't measure, but would guess at least 2" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 This is an extremely picturesque snow. I’d guess 2-2.5” here in IC. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 Light snow falling here in Naperville. Yep, I back in town chitown! Good to be home, if only for a day. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 3.75” here in Marion. Was only expecting an inch this morning. Took me over an hour to get home from the southwest side of Cedar Rapids. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I didn’t measure, but I’d guess we picked up around an inch or so from this. Still lightly snowing. About what I expected. Pretty crazy considering it didn’t get above -7. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Some phone pics of the snow in IC today. Very picturesque and I picked up 3” or so. 8 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 You should know betta by now. The one thing that's been a lock this winter is that the torches have been robust over-achievers across SMI. Will be shocked if I don't see another 57F and rain when all is said-n-done Me too Hopefully, February will be a snowy month starting middle of next week. Gotta catch up to average snowfall. March will be here b4 ya know it. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Shocked to see 70% Snow likely in my grid for tomorrow. Radar attm seems like this wouldn't come anywhere near mby. Might just be a light coating via a lake response as the SW passes by to the south? Won't mean much with the impending torch anyways. Close call amigo! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I picked up 2" of fluff here today. Had pixie dust for quite awhile then it accumulated much faster once dentrites began falling. 0.12" liquid from my gauge catch. Not sure if it's worth taking a core sample. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Definitely going to be more than an inch. Hasn’t stopped snowing since I said that, and it’s coming down really well right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Heaviest snow of the winter here, right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 This clipper really overperformed here. I was only expecting maybe an inch, perhaps 1.5. But instead, the snow came down pretty much all day and at times, it was heavy snow. I finished with 3.5”. Very impressive little system here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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