February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Perturbed Member]

You still do well overall. I just notice in each of those six hour frames there seems to be a drier spot there. 

 

Yeah I did notice that too, not sure if it is geographical or just bad luck. I can get shadowed pretty bad in a showery orographic pattern but usually do fine with stratiform stuff. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Euro pretty much shifted most of the second event 100 miles south. Amazing how a little change makes a huge difference. Wont be the last time it changes either.

[TT-SEA]

Wednesday morning... finally quiet again.   

 

[Jesse]

Total snow over the next week.    Ironically... 80% of my snow comes in a 12-hour period on Friday night.      Andrew might have roof collapsing issues.  

 

 

I could print that map out, frame it, and hang it on my wall.

[TT-SEA]

I could print that map out, frame it, and hang it on my wall.

 

All that snow... and places like Lynden get less than an inch.   

[Requiem]

I could print that map out, frame it, and hang it on my wall.

 

I might. We can entitle it, "On the Day KI2 decided to Make a Trigger Happy Judgement".

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Day 7 looks colder than it did with last nights run.

[Phil]

I think I just upvoted Phil for the first time in my life.

[TT-SEA]

Wednesday afternoon... looks ridiculously dry.    This climate sucks soooooooooo bad!

 

[Jesse]

Wednesday morning... finally quiet again.   

 

 

Quiet but ******* cold by the looks of it. 32 line offshore up and down even the Oregon coast, and 0F line invading central Washington.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low of 8 in Olympia at hour 180. 13 at Seattle, 16 at PDX and SLE. A BALMY 20 at EUG.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

I really don't see the precipitation starting as rain on Friday given the amount of low level cold. The GFS, and other models, are notoriously quick to scour out the cold air. As the saying goes, "Too quick to bring in, too quick to scour out."

 

Judging by the 10PM AFD from NWS Seattle and other comments on their Twitter, I think they are forecasting snow from the start as well. They even made a comment about snow falling all the way out to the coast. It's not going to rain. I can almost guarantee it.

[TT-SEA]

Day 7 looks colder than it did with last nights run.

 

And drier... thankfully.  

[TT-SEA]

And the pattern on day 8 now looks prime for a reload.   The ridge was never going to happen with the EPS consistency. 

 

 

 

[Cloud]

This time it was the latter /:

Hey, it’s okay. Still part of your learning process I guess. Next time analyze it more and get a good sense in the output, then make a judgment.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Reports are Mark was like a schoolboy on air a few minutes ago after seeing this EURO run.

[Jesse]

I feel like my brain might explode.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Crazy that SLE is still hanging out in the mid-30s...A tiny bit of clearing up here and down to 25.

[TT-SEA]

Finally... a pattern that could deliver cold and snow!!!    Just 9 days away!  

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Before anyone starts to enter their manic depressive phase just because snow gluttony has gotten the best of them, here are some more healthy reminders;

- surface precip is the last thing to be modeled correctly, by any of them

- the HRRR is weirdly bad out here

- theme of this winter seems to be drifting north or south and then the day before landfall we see something completely new

- if this was the warm run, then hot d**n

- the NWS will be conservative probably until Friday afternoon, respect that

- tonight’s Euro was not gospel

- have fun, don’t worry, and just enjoy the ride

- if you think it’s immature, laughable, or irresponsible that people are getting hyped over snow maps that are over 24 hours out, then you must be new here

 

Good tips for the newbies.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good lord

[Phil]

Another potent wave riding the RNA ridge D9-10.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Before anyone starts to enter their manic depressive phase just because snow gluttony has gotten the best of them, here are some more healthy reminders;

- surface precip is the last thing to be modeled correctly, by any of them

- the HRRR is weirdly bad out here

- theme of this winter seems to be drifting north or south and then the day before landfall we see something completely new

- if this was the warm run, then hot d**n

- the NWS will be conservative probably until Friday afternoon, respect that

- tonight’s Euro was not gospel

- have fun, don’t worry, and just enjoy the ride

- if you think it’s immature, laughable, or irresponsible that people are getting hyped over snow maps that are over 24 hours out, then you must be new here

 

I agree with most of these except for NWS being conservative until Friday. If models continue to show what they've been showing, I see them biting by Thursday at the latest.

 

Their AFDs recently, their tweets, etc. all point to them being fairly bullish about this event. I don't think this will be the usual "Wait until 5 inches have fallen to post a WSW" we get out of them. 

[TT-SEA]

Snowing again by day 9.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Reports are Mark was like a schoolboy on air a few minutes ago after seeing this EURO run.

 

Hope there is a vid. Our EUG mets do a great job but Mark and the PDX folks work up there for a reason.

[Jesse]

Another potent wave riding the RNA ridge D9-10.

 

Phil what the hell is going on???? (I am mentally grabbing you by the shoulders and shaking you right now)

[Guest Sounder]

I don't care if it's the 3rd storm yet to come and still 6 days out, time to break out the top 10 list for our Portland weenies:

 

24 hour snowfall records in Portland:

1) 15.5" - 1/21/1943, Downtown

2) 15" - 1/2/1902, Downtown 

3) 14.4" -1/21/43, PDX

4) 14" 12/22/1892, Downtown 

5) 13.5" - 12/10/1919, Downtown 

6) 12.8" - 1/1/1937, Downtown 

7) 12.4" - 12/16/1884, Downtown 

8) 12" - 2/12/1995, PDX

9) 11.8" 1/10-11/2017, Downtown

10) 10.60" 1/13-1/14/1950 PDX

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is like 8 bad a** snow maps from the euro and a large area between portland and Canada is going to get 18 inches of snow.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Finally... a pattern that could deliver cold and snow!!!    Just 9 days away!  

 

 

Man, look at that beautiful block centered right at 150. Thing of dreams.

[TT-SEA]

Phil what the hell is going on???? (I am mentally grabbing you by the shoulders and shaking you right now)

 

Me too.

 

There is no historical guide for this... even our coldest periods have warm ups mixed in.    This is like they picked up the PNW and moved it to Juneau.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I thought the LRC had 40+ day cycles?

[Requiem]

 

I don't care if it's the 3rd storm yet to come and still 6 days out, time to break out the top 10 list for our Portland weenies:

 

24 hour snowfall records in Portland:

1) 15.5" - 1/21/1943, Downtown

2) 15" - 1/2/1902, Downtown 

3) 14.4" -1/21/43, PDX

4) 14" 12/22/1892, Downtown 

5) 13.5" - 12/10/1919, Downtown 

6) 12.8" - 1/1/1937, Downtown 

7) 12.4" - 12/16/1884, Downtown 

8) 12" - 2/12/1995, PDX

9) 11.8" 1/10-11/2017, Downtown

10) 10.60" 1/13-1/14/1950 PDX

 

 

I think that 1/10/17 storm is why my expectations get so high. If a storm beats that one....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

By hour 216 Hood River is at 39" of snow. 

[Requiem]

So, does someone have a clip or something of Mark's reaction? Apparently he was on air and played the run...

[Phil]

And the pattern on day 8 now looks prime for a reload. The ridge was never going to happen with the EPS consistency.

 

 

 

Man look at that beautiful dipole anomaly! Now that’s what I call a block.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We could potential smash all records for -PNA.

[El_Nina]

Am I high or are the models high?

[Cloud]

This pattern might just run all the way thru Feb.

[TT-SEA]

Alright... let gets this thing started at day 10!    

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Finally... a pattern that could deliver cold and snow!!!    Just 9 days away!  

 

Last night that same day looked like this: