February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hard to believe that the things we've all dreamed about and talked about on here is on the table to happen in 2.5 days.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow over next 10 days...

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Am I high or are the models high?

 

Yes

[Phil]

Phil what the hell is going on???? (I am mentally grabbing you by the shoulders and shaking you right now)

Haha, I don’t know! Some combo of Justin’s overconfidence, solar minimum, Flatiron’s ski trip, the SSW, and the blob?

[TT-SEA]

Last night that same day looked like this:

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

 

It will not end until the EPS shows an end... and it does show an end for the next 15 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Geeze...

 

FWIW the EURO shows a low of 6 at SLE in one week (Wednesday AM) with a small pocket of sub-zero lows near Chehalis. 

[luterra]

I'll be at Breitenbush Hot Springs (2300', east of Detroit, OR) next Mon-Wed for a conference of sorts.  Assuming I can get there the Euro says I might see 3-4 FEET of snow.  Sounds fun!

[GHweatherChris]

I really don't see the precipitation starting as rain on Friday given the amount of low level cold. The GFS, and other models, are notoriously quick to scour out the cold air. As the saying goes, "Too quick to bring in, too quick to scour out."

 

Judging by the 10PM AFD from NWS Seattle and other comments on their Twitter, I think they are forecasting snow from the start as well. They even made a comment about snow falling all the way out to the coast. It's not going to rain. I can almost guarantee it.

Seattle AFD is the same as this afternoon, no updated info in the mid term.

[MossMan]

I have a feeling that my house will have an additional foot of snow on the ground by the end of Monday. Most of us will have one hell of a snowpack by the tail end of whatever you want to call this nearly unprecedented weather pattern. Epic stuff!

 

Temp dropping now! 17.8

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Total snow over next 10 days...

 

 

Just unbelievable consistency the EURO has been showing in delivering a regional snowstorm. Still a long ways to go but very promising.

[Cloud]

Last night that same day looked like this:

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

It was clearly contradicting the EPS last night. Outlier.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I would think there about ready to issue a sws.

[GHweatherChris]

Total snow over next 10 days...

 

Disappointing...

[Phil]

Alright... let gets this thing started at day 10!

 

Umm..verbatim that would be a full recycle of the -PNA/CWB..(IE: A complete redo of the pattern..we end up back where we are right now).

 

What the actual f**k.

[Guest Sounder]

I was going to be driving from Portland to Seattle this weekend and now I am really questioning if I'm going to even be able to get back up there by the middle of next week. Oof.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Departures today.

 

PDX -12 (37/25)

SLE - 8   (37/30)

EUG -7  (41/29)

[Cloud]

Umm..verbatim that would be a full recycle of the RNA/CWB..(IE: A complete redo of the pattern).

What the actual f**k.

It literally keep on cloning itself.

[epiceast]

This forum is memeing PNW snow apocalypse into existence. Reminiscent of Leicester city '15 EPL championship, and Trump '16 victory.

 

I think dewey found the meme magic for us.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Umm..verbatim that would be a full recycle of the -PNA/CWB..(IE: A complete redo of the pattern).

What the actual f**k.

We only know what can happen going back 150 years. This could be a game changer.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Seattle AFD is the same as this afternoon, no updated info in the mid term.

 

The update is at the top.

[Deweydog]

Phil what the hell is going on???? (I am mentally grabbing you by the shoulders and shaking you right now)

January 2018.

[Guest Sounder]

We only know what can happen going back 150 years. This could be a game changer.

Seattle used to be under a mile of ice, who knows what could happen by the end of the month, maybe we can beat it!!!

[MossMan]

You definitely scored in the sweet spot when you got that house. My wife and I have contemplated moving south a little but, and nothing down there has been very interesting to me, until I've seen the pics you've posted of your place. More than the weather, the trees and surrounding countryside look amazing....

I absolutely love this area and east to the Lake Cavanaugh area. Quiet, scenic, and very competitive snow wise! Southern Skagit Co doesn’t seem to have the same snow totals as here...most likely since it’s usually too far north for the pscz.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

These past few days my wife has complained about how much I am on the forum, looking at models, etc. I told her that if I don't visit the forum for an hour or two I'll have 10+ pages to catch up on. I said that simply cannot happen and she will have to deal with it.

 

She then said that, "If you love snow so much, I'll just kick your a** outside on Friday and you can spend the night out there."

 

I have her right where I want her.   

[Phil]

If this happens I owe frontal snowsquall the biggest apology in the history of apologies. Dude was pimping out 1968/69 since last spring and whether by pure luck or pure instinct beyond my comprehension, it might end up being one of the greatest long range forecasting calls in all of history. Lol.

[Winterdog]

I have a feeling that my house will have an additional foot of snow on the ground by the end of Monday. Most of us will have one hell of a snowpack by the tail end of whatever you want to call this nearly unprecedented weather pattern. Epic stuff!

 

Temp dropping now! 17.8

I finally cleared out here. 16F and dropping. I feel a zero or lower in the next few days.

[El_Nina]

Yes

Correct.

[Meatyorologist]

Correct.

Indeed

[Jesse]

If this happens I owe frontal snowsquall the biggest apology in the history of apologies. Dude was pimping out 1968/69 since last spring and whether by pure luck or pure instinct beyond my comprehension, it might end up being one of the greatest long range forecasting calls in all of history. Lol.

I blame Sparky the Sun Devil.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Noticed it is STILL snowing in Pendleton.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

When was the last time PDX had 1"+ snow in 4 consecutive winters? Because they have now accomplished that with the 1.4" last night.

[GHweatherChris]

The update is at the top.

Yep and the words were the same.

 

Edit... my bad dude, saw the update at the top was big time different, usually it is not during the nighttime shift, this time it was.

 

In my defense, everything else was exactly the same.

[Phil]

Where the heck is wx_statman? With the huge number of weather records shattered (and still to be shattered) across the country this seems like a weird time for him to vanish.

[Deweydog]

Noticed it is STILL snowing in Pendleton.

Their radar looks bad for PDX though.

[TT-SEA]

EPS does not finish running for another hour... but I will let you know what it shows now.

 

Absolute ice box for the next 15 days and just getting started on day 15.  

 

Don't even need to check it.     It literally never changes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Seattle used to be under a mile of ice, who knows what could happen by the end of the month, maybe we can beat it!!!

 

I'd love to be in a forest steppe/cold grassland biome with regular snow in the summer. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If this happens I owe frontal snowsquall the biggest apology in the history of apologies. Dude was pimping out 1968/69 since last spring and whether by pure luck or pure instinct beyond my comprehension, it might end up being one of the greatest long range forecasting calls in all of history. Lol.

Haha, you don't need to apologize. I don't want any credit for this if it happens. 8/9 winters though.

[Jesse]

EPS does not finish running for another hour... but I will let you know what it shows now.

 

Absolute ice box for the next 15 days and just getting started on day 15.  

 

Don't even need to check it.     It literally never changes.

 

It's already out through day 15?

[Guest Sounder]

Lol, I guess the Oregonian jumped the gun this morning.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

It's already out through day 15?

Read first sentence.