Jump to content

February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1


Guest hawkstwelve

Recommended Posts

The 12z NAM running.....

 

Prey for Sno.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chicago ended up below 0 for 52 straight hours. The 4th longest such streak in the cities history and 15 hour longer than the infamous "polar vortex" of 2014.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Finishing up my January stats. Looks like I ended up with about a +1.5 temp anomaly. 16 sub freezing minima, I think I only had 6 sub freezing lows last January.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z NAM has Bellingham below freezing by 6z Sunday, that's the earliest any model has shown yet. I went to sleep at 8:30pm last night and just woke up at 6... Earliest I've fallen asleep and slept through the night since December 11th 2008......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM looks slightly East again. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM doesn't really end up any better. A little worse. Darn.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z NAM update looking further east and north than its 06Z run. Hmmmm

 

 

Not really.

 

It ends up in the same spot later Sunday into Monday.

 

 

12Z run on Monday morning...

 

namconus_z500_vort_nwus_48.png

 

 

00Z run on Monday morning...

 

namconus_z500_vort_nwus_52.png

 

 

 

 

12Z run:

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_48.png

 

 

00Z run:

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not really.

 

It ends up in the same spot on Sunday and a little farther south by Monday.

 

 

12Z run on Monday morning...

 

namconus_z500_vort_nwus_48.png

 

 

00Z run on Monday morning...

 

namconus_z500_vort_nwus_52.png

Things seemed further north east earlier in the run and now it ended up like this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM only shows 0.30" of precip for Eugene between now and Monday 4pm. That's going to probably be the limiting factor up here more than temps. Just very little moisture unless we can get some kind of deformation.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ICON RUNNING NOW.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One reason it's pretty melodramatic to call this the worst bust since January 2011 is that it does appear we will still go into some sort of cold pattern that could perhaps last for a little while. As opposed to the entire thing being scrapped like it was then.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One reason it's pretty melodramatic to call this the worst bust since January 2011 is that it does appear we will still go into some sort of cold pattern that could perhaps last for a little while. As opposed to the entire thing being scrapped like it was then.

 

Screenshot_20190201-071833_Twitter.jpg
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just woke up. Good morning. I am sure you noticed the 6z GFS nudged the track of the low further east FV3 a bit and a nice reload. 6z ICON snowy. NAM nudged east too. Also importantly note where the arctic trough digs off BC it's hugging a bit closer to the coast line instead of further out that should keep the air mass a bit colder. I also noticed that trend last night on 00z GFS, FV3, EURO of holding the arctic trough further southwest wasn't there on 6z. Don't rule out 12z runs to shift the low a notch east. For PDX metro We have keep an eye on any lows that linger from Tillamook to Newport as Colder air is likely to creep down into the Columbia Basin and those lows will pull in Colder, Drier air. 12z ICON looks to be snowy too.

 

12z GFS in 5 minutes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ICON is SLIGHTLY colder through hour 84. Still the coldest model out there.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wonder if Hasselhoff has a cold bias.... I know he has a chick in a lifeguard bathing suit with titties bias. Yes.

 

12z ECMWF in 2 hours 19 minutes

 

I don't think it has a cold bias. I haven't noticed one at least. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z GfS going a little west with that low

 

 

Yeah... definite westward shift from 06Z run and a little worse than the 00Z run late Sunday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, that low is going to go west on Monday. Probably best that we just focus on the more interesting opportunities going forward now. Such as the fact that this looks like it could be a fairly long lived chilly pattern, possibly with multiple snow chances.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, that low is going to go west on Monday. Probably best that we just focus on the more interesting opportunities going forward now. Such as the fact that this looks like it could be a fairly long lived chilly pattern, possibly with multiple snow chances.

 

 

February looks pretty cold... don't see a hint of a pattern change on the EPS yet.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...