Jump to content

Welcome!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

* * * * - 10 votes

  • This topic is locked This topic is locked

#51
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:39 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 25691 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

NAM doesn't really end up any better. A little worse. Darn.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#52
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:40 AM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 501024 posts
  • LocationNorth Bend WA

12Z NAM update looking further east and north than its 06Z run. Hmmmm

 

 

Not really.

 

It ends up in the same spot later Sunday into Monday.

 

 

12Z run on Monday morning...

 

namconus_z500_vort_nwus_48.png

 

 

00Z run on Monday morning...

 

namconus_z500_vort_nwus_52.png

 

 

 

 

12Z run:

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_48.png

 

 

00Z run:

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#53
Esquimalt

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:42 AM

Esquimalt

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1867 posts
  • LocationEsquimalt, British Columbia (Elevation 6 Feet)

Not really.

It ends up in the same spot on Sunday and a little farther south by Monday.


12Z run on Monday morning...

namconus_z500_vort_nwus_48.png


00Z run on Monday morning...

namconus_z500_vort_nwus_52.png

Things seemed further north east earlier in the run and now it ended up like this

#54
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:49 AM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 501024 posts
  • LocationNorth Bend WA

Things seemed further north east earlier in the run and now it ended up like this


I think the 06Z was a little slower.
  • Esquimalt likes this

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#55
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:52 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 25691 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

NAM only shows 0.30" of precip for Eugene between now and Monday 4pm. That's going to probably be the limiting factor up here more than temps. Just very little moisture unless we can get some kind of deformation.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#56
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:59 AM

Frontal Snowsquall

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5012 posts
  • LocationDamascus, OR

12z NAM has Bellingham below freezing by 6z Sunday, that's the earliest any model has shown yet. I went to sleep at 8:30pm last night and just woke up at 6... Earliest I've fallen asleep and slept through the night since December 11th 2008......


Oh nice.
<p><font size="4"><font color="purple"><b>Psalm 148:8 <font color="violet">Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!</font></b></font></font>

#57
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:07 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 25691 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

ICON RUNNING NOW.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#58
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:09 AM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 35912 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

One reason it's pretty melodramatic to call this the worst bust since January 2011 is that it does appear we will still go into some sort of cold pattern that could perhaps last for a little while. As opposed to the entire thing being scrapped like it was then.


  • Geos and van city like this

#59
van city

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:14 AM

van city

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 504 posts
  • LocationVancouver, BC

One reason it's pretty melodramatic to call this the worst bust since January 2011 is that it does appear we will still go into some sort of cold pattern that could perhaps last for a little while. As opposed to the entire thing being scrapped like it was then.

Attached File  Screenshot_20190201-071833_Twitter.jpg   682.27KB   0 downloads
  • Geos and Jesse like this

#60
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:16 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Just woke up. Good morning. I am sure you noticed the 6z GFS nudged the track of the low further east FV3 a bit and a nice reload. 6z ICON snowy. NAM nudged east too. Also importantly note where the arctic trough digs off BC it's hugging a bit closer to the coast line instead of further out that should keep the air mass a bit colder. I also noticed that trend last night on 00z GFS, FV3, EURO of holding the arctic trough further southwest wasn't there on 6z. Don't rule out 12z runs to shift the low a notch east. For PDX metro We have keep an eye on any lows that linger from Tillamook to Newport as Colder air is likely to creep down into the Columbia Basin and those lows will pull in Colder, Drier air. 12z ICON looks to be snowy too.

 

12z GFS in 5 minutes



#61
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:18 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Still 30 hours until the arctic trough is just into central BC.



#62
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:18 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 25691 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

ICON is SLIGHTLY colder through hour 84. Still the coldest model out there.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#63
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:21 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

ICON is SLIGHTLY colder through hour 84. Still the coldest model out there.

I wonder if Hasselhoff has a cold bias.... I know he has a chick in a lifeguard bathing suit with titties bias. Yes.

 

12z ECMWF in 2 hours 19 minutes


  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this

#64
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:22 AM

HighlandExperience

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4755 posts
  • LocationEastSide

Much better snow totals, especially from King County north.

5veBkOQ.jpg


😇
  • DJ Droppin likes this

#65
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:23 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 25691 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

I wonder if Hasselhoff has a cold bias.... I know he has a chick in a lifeguard bathing suit with titties bias. Yes.

 

12z ECMWF in 2 hours 19 minutes

 

I don't think it has a cold bias. I haven't noticed one at least. 


  • DJ Droppin likes this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#66
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:23 AM

Frontal Snowsquall

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5012 posts
  • LocationDamascus, OR

I wonder if Hasselhoff has a cold bias.... I know he has a chick in a lifeguard bathing suit with titties bias. Yes.

12z ECMWF in 2 hours 19 minutes


This.
<p><font size="4"><font color="purple"><b>Psalm 148:8 <font color="violet">Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!</font></b></font></font>

#67
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:27 AM

luvssnow_seattle

    This is going to be the year!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4934 posts
  • LocationBonney Lake - 560ft

I wonder if Hasselhoff has a cold bias.... I know he has a chick in a lifeguard bathing suit with titties bias. Yes.

12z ECMWF in 2 hours 19 minutes

Tends to have more of a really hot model bias,
  • DJ Droppin likes this

#68
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:32 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 1 arctic trough a NOTCH further south than 6z, Arctic air in southern BC a notch further south

 

500h_anom.na.png



#69
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:35 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 1.5

 

gfs_z500a_namer_7.png



#70
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:38 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Nah, I just don't think we'll see any changes with where the arctic trough moves off southwestern BC.



#71
iFred

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:41 AM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 3759 posts
  • LocationEverett, WA
Some of you guys are ridiculous.

Call Tim our for trolling, but spends the previous week pissing on everyone’s parade.

Being “realistically negative” and thinking that’s a good thing.

Showing your winking Jeckel and Hyde personality with every run.

Dismissing people who are taking the coldest model as gospel but then posting a snowless WRF as “the most likely scenario”.

Some of the nice things about the new forum software;
- tagging people as weenies
- downvoting people into oblivion
- filtering tagged posts, so if you only care about your weather, then you only need to see your weather
  • Jesse, Mapsyscon, van city and 2 others like this

#72
Esquimalt

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:44 AM

Esquimalt

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1867 posts
  • LocationEsquimalt, British Columbia (Elevation 6 Feet)
12Z GfS going a little west with that low. Positioning is a bit closer to the 06Z than the 00Z thou

#73
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:44 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Yeah Day 2 trough axis orientation too elongated again

 

500h_anom.na.png



#74
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:46 AM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 501024 posts
  • LocationNorth Bend WA

12Z GfS going a little west with that low

 

 

Yeah... definite westward shift from 06Z run and a little worse than the 00Z run late Sunday.


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#75
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:48 AM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 501024 posts
  • LocationNorth Bend WA

Monday morning...

 

00Z run...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

 

And the new 12Z run...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_13.png


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#76
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:49 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 3 arctic trough is actually a tiny notch further southwest than 6z

 

500h_anom.na.png



#77
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:50 AM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 35912 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

Yes, that low is going to go west on Monday. Probably best that we just focus on the more interesting opportunities going forward now. Such as the fact that this looks like it could be a fairly long lived chilly pattern, possibly with multiple snow chances.



#78
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:51 AM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 501024 posts
  • LocationNorth Bend WA

Deformation is a little further south on Tuesday morning... maybe Andrew will get in on the action?

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#79
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:52 AM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 501024 posts
  • LocationNorth Bend WA

Yes, that low is going to go west on Monday. Probably best that we just focus on the more interesting opportunities going forward now. Such as the fact that this looks like it could be a fairly long lived chilly pattern, possibly with multiple snow chances.

 

 

February looks pretty cold... don't see a hint of a pattern change on the EPS yet.  


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#80
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:53 AM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 35912 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

It's February now, btw.



#81
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:55 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 4

 

500h_anom.na.png



#82
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:55 AM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 501024 posts
  • LocationNorth Bend WA

It's February now, btw.

 

 

Good point


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#83
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:59 AM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 35912 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

Good point


I think you and Rob have been simultaneously analyzing the same run on separate monthly threads this morning. :lol:
  • TT-SEA likes this

#84
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:01 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 5

 

500h_anom.na.png



#85
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:04 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 5.5

 

500h_anom.na.png



#86
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:06 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Now we find out if we just see a secondary shot of chilly air, or an actual blast.



#87
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:07 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Block at Day 5.5 is significantly more amplified than 6z, 00z



#88
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:08 AM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 35912 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

Now we find out if we just see a secondary shot of chilly air, or an actual blast.


Will be good to finally get that nailed down.

#89
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:08 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 6

 

500h_anom.na.png



#90
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:10 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 6 522 thickness into Bellingham



#91
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:11 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 6.5

 

500h_anom.na.png



#92
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:12 AM

VancouverIslandSouth

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2478 posts

The Arctic front is nearly to Williams Lake now, Shawnigan must be experiencing quite the blizzard.


  • hcr32 and DJ Droppin like this

#93
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:15 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 7

 

500h_anom.na.png



#94
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:15 AM

Frontal Snowsquall

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5012 posts
  • LocationDamascus, OR
Here are last night's 00z EPS loops out to day 15. Very strong signal for continued PNW cold through at least the first half of February.

14-km_EPS_Global_Northern_Hemisphere_500
1617116155_14-kmEPSGlobalNorthAmerica2-m
  • Geos, DJ Droppin and Jginmartini like this
<p><font size="4"><font color="purple"><b>Psalm 148:8 <font color="violet">Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!</font></b></font></font>

#95
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:16 AM

VancouverIslandSouth

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2478 posts

The WRF continues to be aggressive in filling northern areas with cold low level air as early as Saturday. Any precipitation on Sunday should be of the frozen variety if that's the case. The GFS seems to be doing some catchup on this:

 

wa_slp.36.0000.gif

 

wa_slp.39.0000.gif


  • Geos likes this

#96
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:17 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

The Arctic front is nearly to Williams Lake now, Shawnigan must be experiencing quite the blizzard.

Really? That seems faster than modeled. That COULD be a good thing. Hmmm...


  • iFred likes this

#97
ChilliwackBCwx

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:21 AM

ChilliwackBCwx

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 166 posts
  • LocationChilliwack, B.C. Canada, Elev. 85 Ft

The Arctic front is nearly to Williams Lake now, Shawnigan must be experiencing quite the blizzard.

To be precise the Arctic front is located just south of Quesnel now they dropped from 32f to 18f in 3 hours
  • iFred, DJ Droppin and Jginmartini like this

#98
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:23 AM

DJ Droppin

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10380 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

12z GEM Day 5

 

500h_anom.na.png



#99
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:26 AM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 501024 posts
  • LocationNorth Bend WA

GEM has finally caught up with the westward trend in the other models for the initial system.   


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#100
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:27 AM

HighlandExperience

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4755 posts
  • LocationEastSide

GEM has finally caught up with the westward trend in the other models for the initial system.

Noticed that. Quite a bit less snow than the 00z. 😢

Lots can change in 48 hours right?