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February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

* * * * - 10 votes

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#101
ChilliwackBCwx

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:28 AM

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And Prince George which is north of Quesnel had the Arctic front go through there last night at 10p.m. they went from 32f and is currently 8f

#102
ChilliwackBCwx

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:30 AM

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Noticed that. Quite a bit less snow than the 00z.

Lots can change in 48 hours right?

Yeah if you believe in horseshoes and hand grenades.

#103
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:30 AM

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Looking at pressure gradients the arctic front has passed south of Quensel, BC(YQZ). Pressure rises indicated. I also see it's just north of Williams, Lake BC(YWL).

 

51128896_10216673287656310_8044379183113



#104
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:31 AM

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Noticed that. Quite a bit less snow than the 00z.

Lots can change in 48 hours right?

 

 

Probably not much at this point.    The models have finally locked in a solution.  


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#105
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:32 AM

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12z GEM Day 7

 

500h_anom.na.png



#106
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:33 AM

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12Z GEM also looks weaker and warmer with the reload later in the week compared to its 00Z run.

 

But the GEM at that range is pretty much pointless.  


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#107
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:33 AM

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ICON definitely supports the idea of a 2nd trough later in the week. It is pretty snowy from Salem/north. 


  • DJ Droppin and Frontal Snowsquall like this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#108
Requiem

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:34 AM

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Never thought I’d be jealous of California, but here we are. Their storm is bigger than anything we’ve seen in at least three years and won’t bust unlike most of our stuff.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 0" :(


#109
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:37 AM

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No dice with 12z GEM for secondary cold shot. That could change on future runs. I think it will.



#110
Jginmartini

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:37 AM

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44* and raining
.37 precipitation
Stats for last month

Attached Files


Layman’s terms please 😁

#111
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:39 AM

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GFS pretty chilly late next week too.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#112
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:41 AM

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Jim bolted when things turned bad 36 hours ago.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 46 (Most recent: Feb 27)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 3, 2020
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

 

24


#113
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:41 AM

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How do max temps look for Seattle Sunday through the end of next week?

#114
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:41 AM

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GFS pretty chilly late next week too.

 

 

Regardless of what individual runs might show... troughing is going to keep forming over the west for at least the first half of February.  

 

The EPS has not wavered once.   

 

Chilly weather is absolutely a given for the next couple weeks and maybe beyond.


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#115
Jginmartini

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:42 AM

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To be precise the Arctic front is located just south of Quesnel now they dropped from 32f to 18f in 3 hours


Only a 9 hour and 28 minutes drive if I leave now!
Layman’s terms please 😁

#116
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:42 AM

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FV-3 looks a "notch" better early next week.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#117
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:43 AM

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ICON definitely supports the idea of a 2nd trough later in the week. It is pretty snowy from Salem/north.


Yeah, the 12z ICON shows good snow this coming Thursday night. Good overall run, I'd be a happy camper if it verified.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_53.png
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_54.png
icon_asnow_nwus_61.png
<p><font size="4"><font color="purple"><b>Psalm 148:8 <font color="violet">Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!</font></b></font></font>

#118
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:43 AM

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Jim bolted when things turned bad 36 hours ago.

 

 

He posted last night in the January thread.

 

He said he was disappointed in the initial trough but very encouraged by the long-term cold opportunities.  


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#119
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:44 AM

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Jim bolted when things turned bad 36 hours ago.

 

He was here lamenting last night. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#120
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:46 AM

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Icon always gives false hope
  • TT-SEA likes this

#121
Jginmartini

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:49 AM

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Jim bolted when things turned bad 36 hours ago.


He posted just a bit ago although disappointed how things our unfolding short term he has hope as do I for the longer term. I still have hope for the short term though and not giving in yet. Weather doesn’t follow models so I’m expecting the unexpected!!! I also may drive to Portland pending where the Low goes to increase my chances.
  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this
Layman’s terms please 😁

#122
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:50 AM

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Icon always gives false hope

And the mighty Euro didn't?


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#123
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:53 AM

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Snow pack building NW flow in the long range. 


  • MR.SNOWMIZER and Jginmartini like this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#124
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:54 AM

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When you read though this forum it gives the false impression that nothing at all will happen. Not the case at all.


  • Jginmartini and Frontal Snowsquall like this

We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#125
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:55 AM

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And the mighty Euro didn't?

 

Unfortunately it did this time. 


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#126
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:57 AM

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When you read though this forum it gives the false impression that nothing at all will happen. Not the case at all.

Exactly. 40-45 degree temps and zero snow due to the infamous “westward trend” is what I am taking from the thread. That’s why I would like to see Seattle temp maps but I haven’t had a chance to look yet.

#127
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:57 AM

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When you read though this forum it gives the false impression that nothing at all will happen. Not the case at all.


This.
<p><font size="4"><font color="purple"><b>Psalm 148:8 <font color="violet">Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!</font></b></font></font>

#128
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:02 AM

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Exactly. 40-45 degree temps and zero snow due to the infamous “westward trend” is what I am taking from the thread. That’s why I would like to see Seattle temp maps but I haven’t had a chance to look yet.

There is a real chance of some decent snow for many places. I'm good with that chance. By far the best set up all winter. And we all know these patterns never play nice with the models even 12hrs out. I've been through a few in the 45 years here.


  • MossMan and Jginmartini like this

We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#129
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:10 AM

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There is a real chance of some decent snow for many places. I'm good with that chance. By far the best set up all winter. And we all know these patterns never play nice with the models even 12hrs out. I've been through a few in the 45 years here.

True! :)  But honestly this looks to be pretty marginal for a lot of us, but that does not deny that we will not see some snow but overall super borderline/marginal and I would not be surprised if it is a bust for some if not a lot. I am excited for the potential, but am concerned too. A few flakes will be fun if anything, but not what I hoped for! ;)



#130
Requiem

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:12 AM

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True! :)  But honestly this looks to be pretty marginal for a lot of us, but that does not deny that we will not see some snow but overall super borderline/marginal and I would not be surprised if it is a bust for some if not a lot. I am excited for the potential, but am concerned too. A few flakes will be fun if anything, but not what I hoped for! ;)


Concerned even that won’t happen. Probably just me being silly though.
  • luvssnow_seattle likes this

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 0" :(


#131
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:13 AM

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Total snow per the WRF through Monday evening... amounts might be wrong but the low trajectory keeps the Seattle area dry with offshore flow and that is what the ECMWF is showing now as well.   

 

wrf.png


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#132
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:16 AM

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Total snow per the WRF through Monday evening... amounts might be wrong but the low trajectory keeps the Seattle area dry with offshore flow and that is what the ECMWF is showing now as well.   

 

wrf.png

 

Wow at least my area isn't totally hosed like yours.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#133
Geos

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:16 AM

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The WRF continues to be aggressive in filling northern areas with cold low level air as early as Saturday. Any precipitation on Sunday should be of the frozen variety if that's the case. The GFS seems to be doing some catchup on this:

 

wa_slp.36.0000.gif

 

wa_slp.39.0000.gif

 

Thank you for posting. It will be fun to track the arctic front at least. Just need to get that low to cut in somewhere instead of heading to northern California.

 

Just moved a bunch of posts from this morning over here...


  • VancouverIslandSouth likes this

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 23.62", 9/23

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#134
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:17 AM

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On the 9th the 12z ensembles are about 1.5C colder than the 06z run.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#135
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:19 AM

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Wow at least my area isn't totally hosed like yours.

 

 

Even Snoqualmie Pass gets shafted!  


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#136
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:19 AM

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Even Snoqualmie Pass gets shafted!  

 

Yeah above 1000' or so this is going to be more about if there is any moisture or not.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#137
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:20 AM

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Yeah above 1000' or so this is going to be more about if there is any moisture or not.

 

You should at get some flakes in the air at the very least I would hope.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 46 (Most recent: Feb 27)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 3, 2020
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

 

24


#138
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:22 AM

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You should at get some flakes in the air at the very least I would hope.

 

Yeah, but the historical average for snow is around 30-40" a year. I am still 3.1" below my record low seasonal total. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#139
FroYoBro

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:25 AM

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Total snow per the WRF through Monday evening... amounts might be wrong but the low trajectory keeps the Seattle area dry with offshore flow and that is what the ECMWF is showing now as well.   

 

 

 

 

The image isn't showing up for me.



#140
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:26 AM

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Concerned even that won’t happen. Probably just me being silly though.

SADLy you could be right. I am just hopeful but also doubtful as I have seen this type of setup bust more than succeed for us up here. But we have a chance, even if it FEELS like it is slipping away gradually. 



#141
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:26 AM

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The image isn't showing up for me.

 

 

Odd.    

 

How about this...

 

wrf.png


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#142
FroYoBro

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:28 AM

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Odd.    

 

How about this...

 

 

Yep, that works. Time to take a trip to the northern Oregon coast range!


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#143
El_Nina

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:29 AM

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Oregon coast range shadow
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#144
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:29 AM

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Yep, that works. Time to take a trip to the northern Oregon coast range!

 

 

Or take a boat out into the ocean.    :)


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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#145
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:32 AM

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Looks like the 12z ensembles are going to end up below average from the 3rd through the end of the run.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#146
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:33 AM

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Well looks like the 06z east movement was just a fluke..

Darn. At least there's some more potential later in the week, for now.

#147
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:33 AM

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FV-3 shows the cool/cold shot late in the week too.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#148
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:33 AM

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Or take a boat out into the ocean. :)


February 1-5. Don’t even worry about what the models show. It’s gonna happen. Snow for everyone.
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#149
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:36 AM

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February 1-5. Don’t even worry about what the models show. It’s gonna happen. Snow for everyone.

 

 

I saw the potential! 

 

Fine details screwed it up.   Lots of people will see snow though.    :)


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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#150
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:38 AM

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I saw the potential!

Fine details screwed it up. Lots of people will see snow though. :)


:)