February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[TT-SEA]

It's February now, btw.

 

 

Good point

[Jesse]

Good point

I think you and Rob have been simultaneously analyzing the same run on separate monthly threads this morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Now we find out if we just see a secondary shot of chilly air, or an actual blast.

[Gradient Keeper]

Block at Day 5.5 is significantly more amplified than 6z, 00z

[Jesse]

Now we find out if we just see a secondary shot of chilly air, or an actual blast.

Will be good to finally get that nailed down.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 522 thickness into Bellingham

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6.5

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The Arctic front is nearly to Williams Lake now, Shawnigan must be experiencing quite the blizzard.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here are last night's 00z EPS loops out to day 15. Very strong signal for continued PNW cold through at least the first half of February.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The WRF continues to be aggressive in filling northern areas with cold low level air as early as Saturday. Any precipitation on Sunday should be of the frozen variety if that's the case. The GFS seems to be doing some catchup on this:

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

The Arctic front is nearly to Williams Lake now, Shawnigan must be experiencing quite the blizzard.

Really? That seems faster than modeled. That COULD be a good thing. Hmmm...

[ChilliwackBCwx]

The Arctic front is nearly to Williams Lake now, Shawnigan must be experiencing quite the blizzard.

To be precise the Arctic front is located just south of Quesnel now they dropped from 32f to 18f in 3 hours

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM Day 5

 

[TT-SEA]

GEM has finally caught up with the westward trend in the other models for the initial system.   

[HighlandExperience]

[ChilliwackBCwx]

And Prince George which is north of Quesnel had the Arctic front go through there last night at 10p.m. they went from 32f and is currently 8f

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Noticed that. Quite a bit less snow than the 00z.

 

Lots can change in 48 hours right?

Yeah if you believe in horseshoes and hand grenades.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looking at pressure gradients the arctic front has passed south of Quensel, BC(YQZ). Pressure rises indicated. I also see it's just north of Williams, Lake BC(YWL).

 

[TT-SEA]

Noticed that. Quite a bit less snow than the 00z.

 

Lots can change in 48 hours right?

 

 

Probably not much at this point.    The models have finally locked in a solution.  

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM Day 7

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM also looks weaker and warmer with the reload later in the week compared to its 00Z run.

 

But the GEM at that range is pretty much pointless.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON definitely supports the idea of a 2nd trough later in the week. It is pretty snowy from Salem/north. 

[Requiem]

Never thought I’d be jealous of California, but here we are. Their storm is bigger than anything we’ve seen in at least three years and won’t bust unlike most of our stuff.

[Gradient Keeper]

No dice with 12z GEM for secondary cold shot. That could change on future runs. I think it will.

[Blizzard777]

44* and raining

.37 precipitation

Stats for last month

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS pretty chilly late next week too.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Jim bolted when things turned bad 36 hours ago.

[MossMan]

How do max temps look for Seattle Sunday through the end of next week?

[TT-SEA]

GFS pretty chilly late next week too.

 

 

Regardless of what individual runs might show... troughing is going to keep forming over the west for at least the first half of February.  

 

The EPS has not wavered once.   

 

Chilly weather is absolutely a given for the next couple weeks and maybe beyond.

[Blizzard777]

To be precise the Arctic front is located just south of Quesnel now they dropped from 32f to 18f in 3 hours

Only a 9 hour and 28 minutes drive if I leave now!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 looks a "notch" better early next week.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

ICON definitely supports the idea of a 2nd trough later in the week. It is pretty snowy from Salem/north.

Yeah, the 12z ICON shows good snow this coming Thursday night. Good overall run, I'd be a happy camper if it verified.

 

[TT-SEA]

Jim bolted when things turned bad 36 hours ago.

 

 

He posted last night in the January thread.

 

He said he was disappointed in the initial trough but very encouraged by the long-term cold opportunities.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jim bolted when things turned bad 36 hours ago.

 

He was here lamenting last night. 

[HighlandExperience]

Icon always gives false hope

[Blizzard777]

Jim bolted when things turned bad 36 hours ago.

He posted just a bit ago although disappointed how things our unfolding short term he has hope as do I for the longer term. I still have hope for the short term though and not giving in yet. Weather doesn’t follow models so I’m expecting the unexpected!!! I also may drive to Portland pending where the Low goes to increase my chances.