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2/4 - 2/8: Multiple Potential Rain/Ice/Snow Events


East Dubzz

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Alright, you all want a thread... you all get one!

 

I also included Monday’s event, though most of us will be looking at rain with that one. However, after that, there are two potential systems to move through the area.

 

The first one is on Tuesday / Wednesday. Models had a better looking wave coming through a few days ago, but they have since backed off. There are still some signs of life, though. The GFS has some ice in far SE Iowa and northern Illinois, but the storm doesn’t organize well. The Euro is a little better organized with some snow in eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Michigan, but it is showing some heavier ice in northern Missouri, central Illinois, and parts of Indiana. CMC is showing some mixed precipitation across a wide area for a while. Not sure on any other models. Models are still very unsure what to do with this energy.

 

As for the next wave, the Euro has a SLP developing and heading from Nebraska, to N Missouri/SE Iowa, to western Wisconsin. Brings substantial amounts of snow & ice to the Midwest. CMC also has a big storm across the Midwest, though the SLP is further south. That stuff doesn’t matter to much at this point, though. 12z GFS, on the other hand, keeps the storm pretty well south of here.

 

In other words, the models are continuing to show multiple disturbances next week, with several models showing the potential for a snowstorm for at least some people in this sub forum. But... that’s about the only thing that’s consistent at this point.

 

Discuss!

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GFS actually a little stronger with the Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning disturbance. Still pretty weak overall, but brings some mentionable snow to northern Iowa & SE Iowa, and some ice accumulations to far SE Iowa and central Illinois.

 

First two attachments are for the first disturbance on Tuesday / Wednesday.

 

18z GFS also has the later week storm coming in as well. The second two attachments are for that storm. The snow totals are for just that storm, but the ice one is a combination of the two.

 

As always, this is obviously far out, but just posting the info so people can see a little of what’s going on. Probably best not to post on Facebook yet :)

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Looks like I just have to grin and bear it through this warm spell. Thankfully the base on the trails up here looks good and well trafficed, it should hold up to rain and heat much better than the stuff that hasn't been driven on. At least I hope so. The heat isn't a problem, too much, but that rain. If it can stay away on monday and we get a tenth of an inch or less I'll be so happy. I'm a little above the WI/IL border, this last month has been nailbiting with a lot of these storms having the models show me I'm going to get rain and putting me right on the line.

 

Is there some sort of meteorology system for estimating how much snow you're going to lose given temp, precip, etc?

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The bait is getting within nibbling range for this fish.... lol

 

 

:lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This week is going to be a tough forecast, esp across those who live near the MW/GL's region.  Models have been trending with more blocking across SE Canada and slowing the stronger mid week system.  Check out the last 3 runs off the 00z EPS and you can see this clearly.  

 

 

 

 

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I just hope this isn't a hard cutter like the euro has been showing.

 

Update:  The FV3 is shearing the crap out of the energy as it moves east out of the Rockies, so it's really no better than a hard cutter.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I just hope this isn't a hard cutter like the euro has been showing.

 

Update: The FV3 is shearing the crap out of the energy as it moves east out of the Rockies, so it's really no better than a hard cutter.

I suppose a broken clock is right twice a day, but I don’t even look at the FV3 model anymore. That thing has been trash. I remember when the big clipper system that just came through disappeared on it when we were inside 84 hours.

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That was a bummer run.  The surface low certainly tracks farther southeast, a track typically good for eastern Iowa, but the 850 zero line hasn't budged an inch from the last run and remains parked between Waterloo and Cedar Rapids during much of the event.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We got the GFS/GGEM/Ukie all less amplified and South while the Euro is amped and juiced for the primary strong late week system.  Occasionally this season, the Euro has been too amped and often weakened as we got closer to the event.  Wonder if this time it scores a coupe?  Would like to see the 12z EPS in a bit to see what shifting in SLP track are shown.

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That was a bummer run. The surface low certainly tracks farther southeast, a track typically good for eastern Iowa, but the 850 zero line hasn't budged an inch from the last run and remains parked between Waterloo and Cedar Rapids during much of the event.

Can’t be too bummed about a run this far out, especially with details like that. Things will certainly change with this system.

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We got the GFS/GGEM/Ukie all less amplified and South while the Euro is amped and juiced for the primary strong late week system.  Occasionally this season, the Euro has been too amped and often weakened as we got closer to the event.  Wonder if this time it scores a coupe?  Would like to see the 12z EPS in a bit to see what shifting in SLP track are shown.

 

What's it look like when it comes in south? Rain, mix, or actual snow? I'm really bummed I don't have anyone to snowmobile with right now. If this waited just one more week I would have been a happy sledder.

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The GFS, Euro, & CMC (I’m not sure about other models, as this is just off memory) are also showing some accumulations late Tuesday / early Wedneday over here. Interesting dynamic setting up. Won’t be much of a snow producer, but the ice could cause plenty of issues if it ends up happening. Luckily, I believe the ice is south of me at this point.

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