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2/4 - 2/8: Multiple Potential Rain/Ice/Snow Events


East Dubzz

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What's it look like when it comes in south? Rain, mix, or actual snow? I'm really bummed I don't have anyone to snowmobile with right now. If this waited just one more week I would have been a happy sledder.

Obviously mainly more snow from N IL on north if you believe the GFS/GGEM/Ukie.

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The models continue to gradually increase the Tuesday/Wednesday system, and also inch it north.  The Cedar Rapids to Detroit corridor could be in for some decent mix.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Last night's 00z Euro weakened the SLP considerably and not as amped which has been a bias this year in this type of pattern.  Here are the 00z EPS/GEFS snow mean which shows the subtle differences in both models. Somewhere in between (likely near N IL) will be the battle zone where the rain/snow line ends up.

 

I also posted the 00z Euro snowfall...

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The models don't really have me too excited.  This may be a throwaway week for I-80 corridor snow geeks.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The models don't really have me too excited. This may be a throwaway week for I-80 corridor snow geeks.

I loved Hawkeye. Couldn't resist butting in. You guys are where the action is. I don't pretend to know the mesoscale climatology for this region. I did go to forecasting school at Chanute AFB in Rantoul Illinois. Lived there during the Chicago blizzard of 79.

 

Don't despair, someone is going to get slammed.....

 

Auto correct. AI, what a pain.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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We had a great three week stretch.  A week off from significant snow and cold isn't a big deal(although I wouldn't mind if a blizzard buried us tomorrow).  Let the folks up north have a good week.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We had a great three week stretch.  A week off from significant snow and cold isn't a big deal(although I wouldn't mind if a blizzard buried us tomorrow).  Let the folks up north have a good week.

The wind blows.

 

Skip a rope, a country song....

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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As they say... the fortnite of the fork of the mountain steeps low during the briskest winter..... you shall be punished my peasant... as i reign down like the hammer of Thor.... for thou shalln’t forsee beyond the weather of the naked eye.... hear me roar.....

 

-Tabitha probably

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Snowmobile capital of the world. What town you staying in during your trip?

Boulder have a place in Manitowish waters, but shut it down for the winter. Always wanna stay farther north with better snow, but Boulder is a nice to head south too. If the gfs is right looks like a foot by Thurs afternoon!

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DVN mentioned headlines likely to come out soon for the Tuesday / Wednesday system. Luckily, it appears my area will be saved from the worst of the ice, as we’re likely to get more sleep than FZR.

 

Here’s what the DVN says about the first system:

 

“The first of two storm system close together will affect the area. After a dry Tuesday morning, precipitation will start moving back into the area from the west and southwest during the afternoon and continue into Tuesday night before ending.

 

Forecast profiles of the atmosphere show a layer of warm air aloft with cold air at the surface. Internally, the models are suggesting the potential for some cooling of the atmospheric column.

 

Unfortunately the overall setup points to an ice event for the area. Winter headlines for this event will be issued in the next 24 hours.

 

Some snow and likely some sleet will be seen Tuesday afternoon north of an Ottumwa, IA to Sterling, IL line. Snow and sleet amounts will be a trace to about one half inch.

 

South of an Ottumwa, IA to Sterling, IL line freezing rain is expected Tuesday afternoon with the freezing rain overspreading the entire area Tuesday evening.

 

Right now potential ice accumulations of 0.10 to 0.20 inch are possible generally south of a line from Rockford,IL to Williamsburg, IA. North of that line ice amounts look to be under 0.10 inch.”

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Skating rinks out there this morning. ZR making the commute extremely slow. Currently 7-10” in the point for tomorrow and Wednesday’s storms combined.

Your golden buddy and this pattern looks ripe for the northern tier of our Sub to get walloped this week.

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Southern plains could use some rain. Hit 76* yesterday.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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