Tom Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 What's it look like when it comes in south? Rain, mix, or actual snow? I'm really bummed I don't have anyone to snowmobile with right now. If this waited just one more week I would have been a happy sledder.Obviously mainly more snow from N IL on north if you believe the GFS/GGEM/Ukie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 Forecast is already at 70% chance of snow Wednesday night and 70% chance of snow Thursday. Ok then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 Nam picking up on some early week ice potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 Nam picking up on some early week ice potential.The other models have been picking this up as well. NAM is the further south of the bunch, I believe. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 The models continue to gradually increase the Tuesday/Wednesday system, and also inch it north. The Cedar Rapids to Detroit corridor could be in for some decent mix. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 Last night's 00z Euro weakened the SLP considerably and not as amped which has been a bias this year in this type of pattern. Here are the 00z EPS/GEFS snow mean which shows the subtle differences in both models. Somewhere in between (likely near N IL) will be the battle zone where the rain/snow line ends up. I also posted the 00z Euro snowfall... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 NCEP WPC snowfall map has done well with the last several events to provide an idea of where to expect the snows to fall. Here's a map through Wed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 I Canadian border does well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 00z Euro seems to be snowing some pretty good ice accumulation in my area still. Haven’t been following this too close this weekend as it’s been a busy one, but it would be nice to see that shift to some snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 Yuck, pretty much all rain from HWY 20 and south on the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 The models don't really have me too excited. This may be a throwaway week for I-80 corridor snow geeks. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 Quite a difference between the GFS & Canadian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 The models don't really have me too excited. This may be a throwaway week for I-80 corridor snow geeks.I loved Hawkeye. Couldn't resist butting in. You guys are where the action is. I don't pretend to know the mesoscale climatology for this region. I did go to forecasting school at Chanute AFB in Rantoul Illinois. Lived there during the Chicago blizzard of 79. Don't despair, someone is going to get slammed..... Auto correct. AI, what a pain. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 We had a great three week stretch. A week off from significant snow and cold isn't a big deal(although I wouldn't mind if a blizzard buried us tomorrow). Let the folks up north have a good week. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 We had a great three week stretch. A week off from significant snow and cold isn't a big deal(although I wouldn't mind if a blizzard buried us tomorrow). Let the folks up north have a good week.The wind blows. Skip a rope, a country song.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 The stones sang,"I can't get no satisfaction. " Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 That's why they have the down arrow. Tom T Hall, February 27th... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 That's why they have the down arrow. Tom T Hall, February 27th...Your style of posting seems rather.... Consistent with a previous member's style of posting... 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 Your style of posting seems rather.... Consistent with a previous member's style of posting...LOL was just thinking the same thing but the location threw me off 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 Oh no, not again. ^ Anyway, WWA in effect tonight through tomorrow morning for minor ice and snow accums. The 2 other potential systems this week looking better and better. Haven’t paid much attention to weather the last few days but these have my attention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 Both GFS models are wanting to give here ZR followed by a dry slot. That would definitely be the most disgusting scenario. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 3, 2019 Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 WHO was it? Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Did he obsess when a Storm was coming... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 lolI like this. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 As they say... the fortnite of the fork of the mountain steeps low during the briskest winter..... you shall be punished my peasant... as i reign down like the hammer of Thor.... for thou shalln’t forsee beyond the weather of the naked eye.... hear me roar..... -Tabitha probably 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 GFS has a low party IMBY! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 anyone got euro through Fri. hoping to get dumped on in vilas county! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 anyone got euro through Fri. hoping to get dumped on in vilas county!Snowmobile capital of the world. What town you staying in during your trip? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Yay! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 GFS has a low party IMBY! I was going for the upvote and hit the downvote. I'm so sorry ! Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Snowmobile capital of the world. What town you staying in during your trip?Boulder have a place in Manitowish waters, but shut it down for the winter. Always wanna stay farther north with better snow, but Boulder is a nice to head south too. If the gfs is right looks like a foot by Thurs afternoon! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 00z Euro...good luck to you guys up north...a lot of places up that way are going to make up their snow deficits. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 I can feel the zr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 DVN mentioned headlines likely to come out soon for the Tuesday / Wednesday system. Luckily, it appears my area will be saved from the worst of the ice, as we’re likely to get more sleep than FZR. Here’s what the DVN says about the first system: “The first of two storm system close together will affect the area. After a dry Tuesday morning, precipitation will start moving back into the area from the west and southwest during the afternoon and continue into Tuesday night before ending. Forecast profiles of the atmosphere show a layer of warm air aloft with cold air at the surface. Internally, the models are suggesting the potential for some cooling of the atmospheric column. Unfortunately the overall setup points to an ice event for the area. Winter headlines for this event will be issued in the next 24 hours. Some snow and likely some sleet will be seen Tuesday afternoon north of an Ottumwa, IA to Sterling, IL line. Snow and sleet amounts will be a trace to about one half inch. South of an Ottumwa, IA to Sterling, IL line freezing rain is expected Tuesday afternoon with the freezing rain overspreading the entire area Tuesday evening. Right now potential ice accumulations of 0.10 to 0.20 inch are possible generally south of a line from Rockford,IL to Williamsburg, IA. North of that line ice amounts look to be under 0.10 inch.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Skating rinks out there this morning. ZR making the commute extremely slow. Currently 7-10” in the point for tomorrow and Wednesday’s storms combined. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 @ Madtown, great timing for a good trip up north... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Skating rinks out there this morning. ZR making the commute extremely slow. Currently 7-10” in the point for tomorrow and Wednesday’s storms combined.Your golden buddy and this pattern looks ripe for the northern tier of our Sub to get walloped this week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Southern plains could use some rain. Hit 76* yesterday. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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