2/4 - 2/8: Multiple Potential Rain/Ice/Snow Events

[gosaints]

wherever the fronto band develops tomorrow afternoon could have a couple hours of fun

[Clinton]

12z NAM still holding on to ice potential during the week.  Hoping the NAM has this wrong.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z models aren't exactly raising my confidence of the Wed/Thurs. system in Central Nebraska.  Pretty minimal snow amounts, but cold and windy.  What looks like a perfect setup might not produce much.

[gimmesnow]

12Z models aren't exactly raising my confidence of the Wed/Thurs. system in Central Nebraska.  Pretty minimal snow amounts, but cold and windy.  What looks like a perfect setup might not produce much.

 

At least it's going to be snow. This is going to be nasty for NIL.

[East Dubzz]

At HR 72, the NAM has the SLP at 1006mb in SW Missouri.

 

The GFS has a 1001mb SLP in Eastern Iowa.

 

Canadian has it in NW Arkansas.

 

Last night’s Euro has an elongated 1006mb low in from South central to east central-ish Missouri.

[Tom]

12z GEFS looking pretty for all of MN into N WI/U.P....

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Man, temps crashing hard. Already down to 12F. It was in the middle 30s not too long ago. FZ has flipped to snow.

[East Dubzz]

The Euro seems to be thinking more freezing rain than sleet in my area tomorrow night / Wednesday morning. Does the Euro struggle with those kind of things?

 

Anyway, it’s a pretty nasty ice storm tomorrow night on that run from about HWY 20 and south. 0.2” to 0.4” of ice for most of that area.

[gosaints]

The Euro seems to be thinking more freezing rain than sleet in my area tomorrow night / Wednesday morning. Does the Euro struggle with those kind of things?

 

Anyway, it’s a pretty nasty ice storm tomorrow night on that run from about HWY 20 and south. 0.2” to 0.4” of ice for most of that area.

The EURO should handle the situation fine.  Now like all models in a smaller scale event like this it will struggle with placement of the highest qpf....

[BrianJK]

Boulder have a place in Manitowish waters, but shut it down for the winter. Always wanna stay farther north with better snow, but Boulder is a nice to head south too. If the gfs is right looks like a foot by Thurs afternoon!

Yep, if this pans out conditions will immediately be back to “good/excellent” riding. Have a great time. I’ll be back up the following week.

[East Dubzz]

The EURO should handle the situation fine. Now like all models in a smaller scale event like this it will struggle with placement of the highest qpf....

Fair. Just seems like the Euro is the only model not showing a good swatch of sleet, which is what has me confused. Most other models seem to indicate that, where the Euro has me with all FZR. That could make a pretty huge difference.

[Clinton]

The Euro seems to be thinking more freezing rain than sleet in my area tomorrow night / Wednesday morning. Does the Euro struggle with those kind of things?

 

Anyway, it’s a pretty nasty ice storm tomorrow night on that run from about HWY 20 and south. 0.2” to 0.4” of ice for most of that area

Is the EURO similar to the CMC in terms of ice amounts and placement?

[East Dubzz]

Is the EURO similar to the CMC in terms of ice amounts and placement?

For which event? It’s very difficult with the Euro, because the site I use only shows ice accumulations in 6-hour increments.

[jcwxguy]

12z euro

[Iowawx]

For which event? It’s very difficult with the Euro, because the site I use only shows ice accumulations in 6-hour increments.

What does the Euro show for ice for Wednesday night- Thursday in eastern Iowa?

[Clinton]

For which event? It’s very difficult with the Euro, because the site I use only shows ice accumulations in 6-hour increments.

Tuesday afternoon and night.

[East Dubzz]

What does the Euro show for ice for Wednesday night- Thursday in eastern Iowa?

This is Wednesay night into Thursday..

[East Dubzz]

This is Tuesday afternoon/night & Wednesday morning ice accumulations..

[snowstorm83]

Euro is better here for about 2-3" but we waste some QPF on lame freezing rain. 

[Snowshoe]

PIcture from Hwy 8 near Rhinelander, WI this morning. Quarter inch of ice being reported with thousands of power outages. Nasty stuff.

[St Paul Storm]

12z euro

Thanks for posting the Euro. That extends to everyone that posts it.

[Tom]

PIcture from Hwy 8 near Rhinelander, WI this morning. Quarter inch of ice being reported with thousands of power outages. Nasty stuff.

That literally looks like an ice rink...no bueno...feel bad for those who have to deal with that ice...hope your doing well Snowshoe...

[gosaints]

Fronto weenie run for the NAM just NW of MSP

[St Paul Storm]

^ LIKE. Big change from previous runs.

[Minny_Weather]

No shortage of dry air on NAM. Gives us a couple tenths before shafting us.

 

Catastrophic ice storm just North of Jaster on NAMily... >0.50".

[St Paul Storm]

18z NAM and 3km NAM. Still snowing on the 3km at the end of the run. And of course, my snowblower is out of commission this week. Fuel leak for the loss.

[Stormgeek]

We might be quite low in the snow department this year, but this snow-thaw-freeze cycle has left the snow base here very solid. Probably have around 3-4 inches of glacier. Hoping to see things happen this week too! Side streets and parking lots are a nightmare up here with the freezing rain that fell. That stuff can stay away.

[OmahaSnowFan]

I love how the surface low track is about perfect on the GFS, but we still get nothing in Omaha

[Minny_Weather]

I love how the surface low track is about perfect on the GFS, but we still get nothing in Omaha

That's happened so many times this Winter. Usually a track between KC and St. Joe is perfect for here, but we've only had one >6" storm.

[East Dubzz]

I would take a dry slot over sleet. I mean, I don’t like the trouble freezing rain causes, but I always find it to be fascinating, at least. Sleet is just the worst.

[hlcater]

That's happened so many times this Winter. Usually a track between KC and St. Joe is perfect for here, but we've only had one >6" storm.

We havent had a single one.

[gimmesnow]

I would take a dry slot over sleet. I mean, I don’t like the trouble freezing rain causes, but I always find it to be fascinating, at least. Sleet is just the worst.

 

Frozen rain is terrible. I'd rather we have dry and 0 - 25 degrees outside. Not sure why some people are complaining about being dry when most of us are getting a nasty mix of frozen rain, sleet, and snow.

[Minny_Weather]

I would take a dry slot over sleet. I mean, I don’t like the trouble freezing rain causes, but I always find it to be fascinating, at least. Sleet is just the worst.

I'm the opposite of you. I love sleet. I find it thrilling and a bit soothing when heavy sleet falls. Freezing rain is just a pain in the a**.

[WBadgersW]

No more sleet! I experienced enough of that in Chile.

[Madtown]

wow...I know it's the gfs fv3 but 988!

[Madtown]

looks like northern wi gets hammered!on nam gfs and gfs fv3. None of the forecast offices up there seem too excited. Weather channel has 12 to 18. Hope it happens would be pretty cool!

[jaster220]

No shortage of dry air on NAM. Gives us a couple tenths before shafting us.

 

Catastrophic ice storm just North of Jaster on NAMily... >0.50".

 

Thx for the heads-up. I try to ignore ZR events since they're as you say, just a nuisance or worse in my book. Getting just missed to the north would be a repeat of Dec 2013. Had a couple tenths here, but merely a county north was out of power for a week or more iirc. Perhaps if these 50's and torch is good for anything, it will spare me that misery. Although, my gut tells me we're "due". We had tons of ice in 06-07 and not a direct hit since. That sound bite you hear is me knocking on wood..

[Minny_Weather]

Thx for the heads-up. I try to ignore ZR events since they're as you say, just a nuisance or worse in my book. Getting just missed to the north would be a repeat of Dec 2013. Had a couple tenths here, but merely a county north was out of power for a week or more iirc. Perhaps if these 50's and torch is good for anything, it will spare me that misery. Although, my gut tells me we're "due". We had tons of ice in 06-07 and not a direct hit since. That sound bite you hear is me knocking on wood..

NAM gives you a mere 0.2". Lansing gets nearly 0.6".

[St Paul Storm]

Heavy snow wording in the point tomorrow. 3-5” expected. The evening commute is gonna be rockin.

[East Dubzz]

All kinds of rain here on Thursday on the GFS. Very gross.