Jump to content

Welcome!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

February 2019 Snow Event - Part 2

Victoria Vancouver Bellingham Seattle Tacoma Olympia Portland Salem Eugene
* * * * - 3 votes

  • This topic is locked This topic is locked

#1
iFred

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:25 PM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 3442 posts
  • LocationEverett, WA

*
POPULAR

Kicking off a new thread to track, discuss, speculate, and share observations of the extended period of cold and multiple snow events forecasted for the remainder of the month.

 

Please keep banter, depressed, "Debbie Downer", and really anything that does not contribute to the discussion at hand to the banter thread. Please feel free to ask questions, feel excited, and share anything you find that might help us gain insight into the kinds of weather we will see over the next few weeks.

 

As I and others have noted in the recent past, there almost always seems to be an 18 hour window near the event where models seems to lose what looked like a solid solution, only to have it return. It isn't a guarantee that we will see significant cold and snow next week, but just because we lose it tonight doesn't mean it cannot come back with tomorrow evenings runs. My experience with being an East Coast weather weenie, I wouldn't really trust the ICON for low placement, the Euro handles precip weirdly when going from warm to cold, and the GFS doesn't get low level temps right this far out. I would sit back and relax, and enjoy the ride. Even if we lose the Euro tonight for anything past this weekend, until we have had successive runs and the EPS supports the break in the trend, I am not going to sweat it.

 

Respect the professional mets that are lurking here, posting on Twitter, doing your local news cast, or writing up the AFD. Its not like these guys are assholes who want to see you shake in your weenie boots because their call is "too conservative". This shit is hard and it would be great if we had them on here discussing their methodology. I'm sure no one wants to hold those discussions when some jabroni is calling them a fraud for not getting the WWA out several hours sooner.

 


  • bainbridgekid, nwsnow, Sounder and 4 others like this

#2
iFred

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:29 PM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 3442 posts
  • LocationEverett, WA

7418 posts in the old thread.



#3
K%%

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:31 PM

K%%

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3477 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

Hope this is one to remember! This is my first significant event as a forum member, so yay!


  • nwsnow likes this

"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#4
Jesse

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:33 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 34458 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')
After today, PDX is running at 37.8F for the month to date, which would make this their third coldest February on record (behind 1989’s 36 and 1956’s 35.8) if the month ended today.
  • K%% likes this

#5
iFred

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:34 PM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 3442 posts
  • LocationEverett, WA

8940 posts for the December 08 events, spread over three threads and five weeks.



#6
wxmet

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:35 PM

wxmet

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 412 posts
  • LocationSeattle, WA

Would like to add to the first post that snow maps aren't what you will actually see as some of them make assumptions especially in marginal cases with potential planetary boundary layer warmth issues. They can under or overestimate when they are confined to the constraints such as a particular snow ratio. The best approach is always to start with the top-down skew-T to get a feel for the atmosphere, look at the qpf, look into the dynamics in play to determine snowfall accumulation. 


  • iFred, bainbridgekid, TigerWoodsLibido and 1 other like this

#7
nwsnow

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:35 PM

nwsnow

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2901 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

I think Cliff Mass is gonna do quite alright with his all in/hyped forecast for this weekend. Seattle looks like a lock for another strong event. 


  • K%% and PragmaticPanda like this

#8
iFred

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:36 PM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 3442 posts
  • LocationEverett, WA

A bit of history for those of you interested in our last region wide event that is a fond memory for just about everyone here.

 

http://theweatherfor...tbreak-part-ii/

 

http://theweatherfor...ic-outbreak-08/

 

http://theweatherfor...event-number-2/



#9
Skagit Weather

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:36 PM

Skagit Weather

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 620 posts
  • LocationWestern Skagit County (~100ft. ASL)

Think about how quickly we could fill up this thread if we simply listed the number of our post and nothing else!  ;)

 

Anyways, 34.4F/15.3F day here. A little more optimistic about snow chances up here with the WRF still looking solid and a slight northward trend to the precip in the Euro for the upcoming storm.


Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"

Snowfall Totals
2008-09: 30" | 2009-10: 0.5" | 2010-11: 21" | 2011-12: 9.5" | 2012-13: 0.2" | 2013-14: 6.2" | 2014-15: 0.0" | 2015-16: 0.25"| 2016-17: 8.0" | 2017-18: 0.9"

2018-19: 11"

[0.25" (2/3), 2.75" (2/4), 2.5" (2/8), 1.25" (2/10), 4" (2/11), 0.25" (2/11)]


#10
TT-SEA

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:36 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 46811 posts
  • LocationNorth Bend WA

This was requested in the previous thread...

 

KSEA-2019020700-ecmwf-min-max-10.png

 

KPDX-2019020700-ecmwf-min-max-10.png


  • bainbridgekid, nwsnow, Frontal Snowsquall and 1 other like this

#11
Jesse

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:36 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 34458 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

8940 posts for the December 08 events, spread over three threads and five weeks.


Pretty surprised we’re even within striking distance already. If the modeled storms for the next week even halfway verify we would probably sail past 10,000 with ease.

#12
K%%

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:36 PM

K%%

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3477 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

I think Cliff Mass is gonna do quite alright with his all in/hyped forecast for this weekend. Seattle looks like a lock for another strong event. 

 

Definitely. I have a feeling we could do okay too, especially higher up and towards the Gorge.


"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#13
Deweydog

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:37 PM

Deweydog

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22186 posts
  • LocationHockinson, WA

Let's see how many more model runs can screw over whatcom county before this thing is over


Okay Debbie...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#14
runninthruda206

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:37 PM

runninthruda206

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 153 posts
  • LocationUniversity District

Hope this is one to remember! This is my first significant event as a forum member, so yay!


Same here brother!
  • K%% likes this

#15
MossMan

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:37 PM

MossMan

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12480 posts
  • LocationStanwood, Wa
Last February I had snow on the ground for 10 consecutive days...I think this February will beat that number!

#16
Skagit Weather

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:39 PM

Skagit Weather

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 620 posts
  • LocationWestern Skagit County (~100ft. ASL)

Pretty surprised we’re even within striking distance already. If the modeled storms for the next week even halfway verify we would probably sail past 10,000 with ease.

 

Without a doubt. We're averaging more than a thousand posts a day. Combined we might hit 10,000 before the weekend.


Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"

Snowfall Totals
2008-09: 30" | 2009-10: 0.5" | 2010-11: 21" | 2011-12: 9.5" | 2012-13: 0.2" | 2013-14: 6.2" | 2014-15: 0.0" | 2015-16: 0.25"| 2016-17: 8.0" | 2017-18: 0.9"

2018-19: 11"

[0.25" (2/3), 2.75" (2/4), 2.5" (2/8), 1.25" (2/10), 4" (2/11), 0.25" (2/11)]


#17
iFred

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:39 PM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 3442 posts
  • LocationEverett, WA

Would like to add to the first post that snow maps aren't what you will actually see as some of them make assumptions especially in marginal cases with potential planetary boundary layer warmth issues. They can under or overestimate when they are confined to the constraints such as a particular snow ratio. The best approach is always to start with the top-down skew-T to get a feel for the atmosphere, look at the qpf, look into the dynamics in play to determine snowfall accumulation. 

 

That goes back to the win/lose with kuch ratios. If the skews look "normal" and match what you would expect as the modeled ratio, then it works.



#18
Deweydog

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:40 PM

Deweydog

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22186 posts
  • LocationHockinson, WA

Definitely. I have a feeling we could do okay too, especially higher up and towards the Gorge.


Keep in mind, the gorge isn’t a huge factor with the weekend storm. If we do see meaningful accumulations out of that it will be more dependent on precip rates, keeping the southerly component suppressed prior to offshore flow kicking in.
  • iFred and K%% like this

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#19
umadbro

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:41 PM

umadbro

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 799 posts
  • LocationRidgefield, Washington
I don't even....

Attached Files


  • Frontal Snowsquall and K%% like this

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#20
ShawniganLake

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:42 PM

ShawniganLake

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9059 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

Let's see how many more model runs can screw over whatcom county before this thing is over

How much snow did you get the other day?

#21
K%%

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:42 PM

K%%

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3477 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

Keep in mind, the gorge isn’t a huge factor with the weekend storm. If we do see meaningful accumulations out of that it will be more dependent on precip rates, keeping the southerly component suppressed prior to offshore flow kicking in.

 

Still, even just a bit of easterly flow can really suppress the southerly flow.


"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#22
snow_wizard

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:45 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 16718 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Last February I had snow on the ground for 10 consecutive days...I think this February will beat that number!

 

Our third February in a row to feature some good weather.  I like how we are finally losing the front loaded look to our winters.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#23
iFred

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:46 PM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 3442 posts
  • LocationEverett, WA

Just for this event - repeated weenie posts will result in mod preview. These posts can be best defined as those posts that always lament the lack of snow in their area on one run, down playing modeled events at all costs, and just generally being a weight on the discussion. If you feel like you just need to let your inner moody child out, please do so in the banter thread.

 

- The Management


  • Poulsbo Snowman, snow_wizard, Sounder and 1 other like this

#24
K%%

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:47 PM

K%%

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3477 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

Our third February in a row to feature some good weather.  I like how we are finally losing the front loaded look to our winters.

 

Excuse me for my ignorance- but what exactly does the term "front-loaded" mean? I've heard it used a lot.


"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#25
Deweydog

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:47 PM

Deweydog

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22186 posts
  • LocationHockinson, WA

Still, even just a bit of easterly flow can really suppress the southerly flow.


There’s gonna be southerly flow ahead of this thing and it will inhibit things to some level. The magnitude is what’s up in the air. The column will be very close to going isothermal, but it’s a touchy setup while we have to best precip rates going. The gorge is actually not a factor at all.
  • K%% likes this

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#26
snow_wizard

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:47 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 16718 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Still, even just a bit of easterly flow can really suppress the southerly flow.

 

It sure can.  It would be more proper to say even a bit of an easterly component to the surface pressure gradient can suppress southerly winds.  I get the same effect here.


  • K%% likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#27
K%%

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:48 PM

K%%

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3477 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

There’s gonna be southerly flow ahead of this thing and it will inhibit things to some level. The magnitude is what’s Up in the air. The column will be very close to going isothermal, but it’s a touchy setup while we have to best precip rates going. The gorge is actually not a factor at all.

 

Oh, I have no idea why Mark has been mentioning it quite a bit in relation to Saturday's event.


"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#28
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:50 PM

Frontal Snowsquall

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4391 posts
  • LocationGresham, OR

Excuse me for my ignorance- but what exactly does the term "front-loaded" mean? I've heard it used a lot.


It means winters that had most of the cold and snow occur in the first half of the season compared to the last half.
  • K%% likes this

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#29
snow_wizard

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:50 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 16718 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Excuse me for my ignorance- but what exactly does the term "front-loaded" mean? I've heard it used a lot.

 

The past 30 years have featured many winters where the best action came in November or December.  I'm convinced that is largely responsible for our horrible Januaries since 1980.  I think January will be making a comeback soon.  If February is capable of this January has to be.  We have actually had a number decent Februaries in recent years.


  • K%% likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#30
bainbridgekid

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:51 PM

bainbridgekid

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3014 posts
  • LocationNear Paine Field (500 feet)

*
POPULAR

I teach 3rd grade and showed my class some simple model analysis today.

 

They were excited you could "see the future" and oohed and aahed when they saw blue getting closer to us and went crazy when the dark blue was over our area. We're gonna check them again tomorrow to compare and make a forecast for Friday.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png


  • iFred, hawkstwelve, luminen and 3 others like this

2018-19 snowfall:

 

Feb. 3rd-4th: 8"

Feb. 8th-9th: 6"

Feb. 10th: 3"

Feb. 11th-12th: 6"

Feb. 22nd: Trace

Feb. 24th: Trace

March 6th: 0.25"

March 7th: 1.5"

 

 

Total: 24.75"

 

 


#31
K%%

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:52 PM

K%%

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3477 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

I teach 3rd grade and showed my class some simple model analysis today.

 

They were excited you could "see the future" and oohed and aahed when they saw dark blue over our area. We're gonna check them again tomorrow to compare and make a forecast for Friday.

 

Kinda wish I was in your class TBH


"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#32
snow_wizard

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:53 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 16718 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Down to 22 degrees.  Another beautiful, snow covered, starry night!


  • iFred and PragmaticPanda like this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#33
snow_wizard

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:54 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 16718 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

I teach 3rd grade and showed my class some simple model analysis today.

 

They were excited you could "see the future" and oohed and aahed when they saw blue getting closer to us and went crazy when the dark blue was over our area. We're gonna check them again tomorrow to compare and make a forecast for Friday.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png

 

Awesome.  What a great time to teach them about weather.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#34
Deweydog

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:55 PM

Deweydog

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22186 posts
  • LocationHockinson, WA

Oh, I have no idea why Mark has been mentioning it quite a bit in relation to Saturday's event.


We transition to offshore flow later on Saturday but moisture is becoming an issue at that point.
  • K%% likes this

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#35
bainbridgekid

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:56 PM

bainbridgekid

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3014 posts
  • LocationNear Paine Field (500 feet)

Awesome.  What a great time to teach them about weather.

We've been looking at the radar before recess on rainy days all year, but this definitely took it to another level.

 

It was a lot of fun.


2018-19 snowfall:

 

Feb. 3rd-4th: 8"

Feb. 8th-9th: 6"

Feb. 10th: 3"

Feb. 11th-12th: 6"

Feb. 22nd: Trace

Feb. 24th: Trace

March 6th: 0.25"

March 7th: 1.5"

 

 

Total: 24.75"

 

 


#36
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:59 PM

Frontal Snowsquall

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4391 posts
  • LocationGresham, OR

Our third February in a row to feature some good weather. I like how we are finally losing the front loaded look to our winters.

The past 30 years have featured many winters where the best action came in November or December. I'm convinced that is largely responsible for our horrible Januaries since 1980. I think January will be making a comeback soon. If February is capable of this January has to be. We have actually had a number decent Februaries in recent years.


I've grown to like late season cold weather. It seems there's always a higher probability that moisture will be associated with them compared to November or December events. I know you've also mentioned that February Arctic Blast are less likely to be dry compared to other months.
  • K%% likes this

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#37
iFred

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:01 AM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 3442 posts
  • LocationEverett, WA

Anyone pulling the night shift?


  • TigerWoodsLibido likes this

#38
Sounder

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:03 AM

Sounder

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 700 posts
  • LocationCapitol Hill, Seattle, WA

Just for this event - repeated weenie posts will result in mod preview. These posts can be best defined as those posts that always lament the lack of snow in their area on one run, down playing modeled events at all costs, and just generally being a weight on the discussion. If you feel like you just need to let your inner moody child out, please do so in the banter thread.

 

- The Management

Can we add "posting serious comments about weather.com & weather app forecasts" to list of offenses?


  • PragmaticPanda likes this

#39
Cloud

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:04 AM

Cloud

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 693 posts
  • LocationBoeing Field

Our third February in a row to feature some good weather. I like how we are finally losing the front loaded look to our winters.


I actually prefer it because once we break out of it, it’s less gloomy. I mean the last couple days with snow covered ground with a little more sunlight is gorgeous.

#40
Jesse

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:09 AM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 34458 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')
Some more EPS maps cementing the fact that we will be continuously cold and snowy until at least President’s Day would be nice.
  • iFred likes this

#41
nwsnow

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:11 AM

nwsnow

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2901 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

A bit of history for those of you interested in our last region wide event that is a fond memory for just about everyone here.

 

http://theweatherfor...tbreak-part-ii/

 

http://theweatherfor...ic-outbreak-08/

 

http://theweatherfor...event-number-2/

 

Whatever happened to Andy in Woodinville? He still around?


  • PragmaticPanda likes this

#42
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:13 AM

hawkstwelve

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5168 posts
  • LocationMaple Valley, WA

Some more EPS maps cementing the fact that we will be continuously cold and snowy until at least President’s Day would be nice.


I mean, I guess it's ok. Kinda "meh" if you ask me.

Something the underside of a planet might look like.

Attached Files


  • Jesse, bainbridgekid, nwsnow and 1 other like this

#43
ShawniganLake

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:16 AM

ShawniganLake

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9059 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft
Attached File  8DD9F90F-1023-45B1-9258-956DEC9B0B11.png   680.93KB   0 downloadsAttached File  38181CA2-9B71-47AA-846F-01EE762DADA6.png   679.35KB   0 downloadsAttached File  CD269CEB-4DE1-4CD9-A018-807AEA9299CB.png   670.65KB   0 downloadsAttached File  88252F35-E9EE-4ACA-9008-E66A5C9812D6.png   684.79KB   0 downloadsAttached File  2E10C6BB-4EF9-465E-B310-C8EABD6A0751.png   647.14KB   0 downloadsAttached File  12CC337C-3587-4DBB-B065-0CB80C8C8F05.png   664.19KB   0 downloads
  • iFred likes this

#44
ShawniganLake

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:17 AM

ShawniganLake

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9059 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft
Snow?

Attached File  A4E5A4F8-E58E-48A6-9DFA-A80373FDB745.png   425.46KB   0 downloads
  • iFred and K%% like this

#45
Sounder

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:17 AM

Sounder

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 700 posts
  • LocationCapitol Hill, Seattle, WA

I actually prefer it because once we break out of it, it’s less gloomy. I mean the last couple days with snow covered ground with a little more sunlight is gorgeous.

Agreed. I'll happily trade the slight handicap from the sun angle for the extra hour of daylight to enjoy the snow in.



#46
PragmaticPanda

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:18 AM

PragmaticPanda

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 23 posts
  • LocationEverywhere and nowhere..

Whatever happened to Andy in Woodinville? He still around?

 

Also, what happened to MallowTheCloud? 


  • Sounder likes this

#47
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:19 AM

TigerWoodsLibido

    ANALogs Gone Wild producer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6444 posts
  • LocationSpringfield, OR 502'

Anyone pulling the night shift?

 

You know it!!!


  • K%% likes this

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#48
K%%

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:21 AM

K%%

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3477 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR
Wish I could pull the night shift but I have school tomorrow. Good night everyone.

"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#49
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:21 AM

Frontal Snowsquall

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4391 posts
  • LocationGresham, OR

I mean, I guess it's ok. Kinda "meh" if you ask me.

Something the underside of a planet might look like.


I love that horseshoe pattern. It helps keep the cold air in place over us. I think we're good to go for at least the next 2 weeks.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#50
nwsnow

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:22 AM

nwsnow

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2901 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

There’s gonna be southerly flow ahead of this thing and it will inhibit things to some level. The magnitude is what’s up in the air. The column will be very close to going isothermal, but it’s a touchy setup while we have to best precip rates going. The gorge is actually not a factor at all.

 

The gorge will still be a factor at some point even while the low is still well north of us, we will have an easterly component to the southerly flow. 

 

1 AM Saturday

 

slp.57.0000.gif

 

 

 

SE flow and approximately isothermal

kpdx.57.0000.snd.gif

 

 

With the low still north of us but getting closer the flow is increasingly going easterly and the temps plummet into the 20s. 

 

kpdx.60.0000.snd.gif

 

 

This is shown on several other models including the FV3 and euro (that has sticking snow Friday night). On these models the window of time where we have a warming southerly flow and precip seems fairly limited. The gorge enters the picture pretty quickly. 


  • K%% likes this





Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Victoria, Vancouver, Bellingham, Seattle, Tacoma, Olympia, Portland, Salem, Eugene