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February 2019 Snow Event - Part 2

Victoria Vancouver Bellingham Seattle Tacoma Olympia Portland Salem Eugene
* * * * - 3 votes

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#51
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:25 AM

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06z NAM showing snow starting in the North Sound around 4AM Friday and Central Sound around 1PM. Roughly same timing as 00z.

It also continues to show a prominent dry slot on the east side of the Olympics. Snowier for Snohomish County through 10PM.

#52
iFred

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:27 AM

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Maps!

#53
nwsnow

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:28 AM

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This is actually pretty amusing

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_42.png



#54
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:29 AM

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You can really see the dry slot with the snow totals map at 4AM Saturday.

Once the low moves south of the Olympics, Central Sound fills in just as the low is moving away. Should be noted no other models show this right now.

Attached Files



#55
Sounder

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:34 AM

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This is actually pretty amusing

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_42.png

Haha, that's not like you just cherry picked a single bad frame either. The hole persists for basically the entire event.



#56
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:37 AM

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The gorge will still be a factor at some point even while the low is still well north of us, we will have an easterly component to the southerly flow.

1 AM Saturday

slp.57.0000.gif



SE flow and approximately isothermal
kpdx.57.0000.snd.gif


With the low still north of us but getting closer the flow is increasingly going easterly and the temps plummet into the 20s.

kpdx.60.0000.snd.gif


This is shown on several other models including the FV3 and euro (that has sticking snow Friday night). On these models the window of time where we have a warming southerly flow and precip seems fairly limited. The gorge enters the picture pretty quickly.


Steve Pierce also seemed pretty adamant PDX Metro switches over to snow right after Friday 10pm - Midnight.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#57
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:39 AM

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06z NAM wants to give everyone but Portland and Seattle a nice snow event. Holes over both cities for the majority of the night.

It's probably pissed because so many people talk sh*t about it.

#BeNicetoNAM
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#58
runninthruda206

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:42 AM

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06z NAM wants to give everyone but Portland and Seattle a nice snow event. Holes over both cities for the majority of the night.

It's probably pissed because so many people talk sh*t about it.

#BeNicetoNAM


I’m trying to be nice to the NAM but it’s doing me no good right now!!!

#59
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:45 AM

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This looks... Funky.

Attached Files



#60
wxmet

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:46 AM

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NAM has consistently been shown to be poor at forecasting low pressure systems especially on the West Coast.
 
Major Numerical Forecast Failures over the Northeast Pacific
Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part I: Analysis Errors and Short-Term NAM and GFS Forecasts
Comparison of Model Forecast Skill of Sea Level Pressure along the East and West Coasts of the United States


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#61
nwsnow

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:50 AM

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Haha, that's not like you just cherry picked a single bad frame either. The hole persists for basically the entire event.

 

Yep no joke. Holes over both SEA and PDX. NAM is trolling. 

 

namconus_apcpn_nwus_28.png



#62
iFred

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:53 AM

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NAM has consistently been shown to be poor at forecasting low pressure systems especially on the West Coast.
 
Major Numerical Forecast Failures over the Northeast Pacific
Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part I: Analysis Errors and Short-Term NAM and GFS Forecasts
Comparison of Model Forecast Skill of Sea Level Pressure along the East and West Coasts of the United States


Surface feature model skill sucks so bad on this side of the Rockies, especially on the coast. On the East Coast, a NAM run could be taken seriously two days out. Here, even our wind storm had its low shift significantly 12 hours out. People should be focused on features if they want to take these seriously, but I’ll never be opposed to crazy fun NAM maps.
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#63
bainbridgekid

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:53 AM

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06z NAM wants to give everyone but Portland and Seattle a nice snow event. Holes over both cities for the majority of the night.

It's probably pissed because so many people talk sh*t about it.

#BeNicetoNAM

The weathernerds.org map still gives Downtown Seattle4.4".

 

A streak of 6-8 inches for Snohomish County.

 

https://www.weathern...On&inithgwys=On

 

It's the only model showing so much less moisture over the Central Sound though. I wouldn't worry too much about it.


2018-19 snowfall:

 

Feb. 3rd-4th: 8"

Feb. 8th-9th: 6"

Feb. 10th: 3"

Feb. 11th-12th: 6"

Feb. 22nd: Trace

Feb. 24th: Trace

March 6th: 0.25"

March 7th: 1.5"

 

 

Total: 24.75"

 

 


#64
Sounder

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:01 AM

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Surface feature model skill sucks so bad on this side of the Rockies, especially on the coast. On the East Coast, a NAM run could be taken seriously two days out. Here, even our wind storm had its low shift significantly 12 hours out. People should be focused on features if they want to take these seriously, but I’ll never be opposed to crazy fun NAM maps.

I certainly wasn't taking it seriously and I don't think nwsnow was either. It was just mildly amusing to see the hole that seemed like a human had purposefully drawn them with the intent of riling up the weather weenies. Gave me a chuckle is all.


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#65
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:01 AM

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NAM has consistently been shown to be poor at forecasting low pressure systems especially on the West Coast.
 
Major Numerical Forecast Failures over the Northeast Pacific
Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part I: Analysis Errors and Short-Term NAM and GFS Forecasts
Comparison of Model Forecast Skill of Sea Level Pressure along the East and West Coasts of the United States


Really interesting links. Thanks for these.

I wonder how much (if any) of the NAM's central pressure displacement errors have been fixed by updates since 2008? Would be interesting to find out.

#66
snow_wizard

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:05 AM

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Holy crap!  528 heights progged over Seattle at day 10 on an ensemble mean!  I cannot believe this is happening!  


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#67
Skagit Weather

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:07 AM

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This looks... Funky.

 

This looks awesome for me at face value. I would definitely take the 6" it shows.


Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"

Snowfall Totals
2008-09: 30" | 2009-10: 0.5" | 2010-11: 21" | 2011-12: 9.5" | 2012-13: 0.2" | 2013-14: 6.2" | 2014-15: 0.0" | 2015-16: 0.25"| 2016-17: 8.0" | 2017-18: 0.9"

2018-19: 11"

[0.25" (2/3), 2.75" (2/4), 2.5" (2/8), 1.25" (2/10), 4" (2/11), 0.25" (2/11)]


#68
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:07 AM

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I've heard some people refer to the NAM as the Never Accurate Model.
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Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#69
snow_wizard

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:08 AM

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Really interesting links. Thanks for these.

I wonder how much (if any) of the NAM's central pressure displacement errors have been fixed by updates since 2008? Would be interesting to find out.

 

I've been thinking about the NAM and came to the conclusion it's a model mainly geared toward forecasting continental weather.  I don't thinks it's suited for forecasting the coastal regions.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#70
wxmet

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:09 AM

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Really interesting links. Thanks for these.

I wonder how much (if any) of the NAM's central pressure displacement errors have been fixed by updates since 2008? Would be interesting to find out.

 

I'll see if I can dig anything up. I doubt those errors improved upon significant though. 



#71
Brennan

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:10 AM

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I've been thinking about the NAM and came to the conclusion it's a model mainly geared toward forecasting continental weather.  I don't thinks it's suited for forecasting the coastal regions.

I remember way back in 2004 when all we had was the GFS and NAM! Well, at least that was all I looked at. 



#72
snow_wizard

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:13 AM

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The GFS ensemble is one of the coldest runs yet during this entire event.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#73
snow_wizard

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:15 AM

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I remember way back in 2004 when all we had was the GFS and NAM! Well, at least that was all I looked at. 

 

Very true.  The NAM was called the ETA and there was another model called the NGM that didn't take topography into account.  That one was kind of interesting actually.  We did have the GFS (then called MRF) ensemble.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#74
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:20 AM

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I think the hype train has begun with the local media.

Top 3 stories are all about the Friday storm

https://komonews.com

#75
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:22 AM

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06z ICON looks like the FV3 with that bullseye over Kitsap.

Shows snow starting around 10AM in the North Sound and 4PM elsewhere. It's a pretty fast moving storm so precip ends over Western WA around 7AM Saturday except over Kitsap/Hood Canal.

Attached Files



#76
bainbridgekid

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:25 AM

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06z ICON looks like the FV3 with that bullseye over Kitsap.

Per usual, the ICON precip map looks way better than the snow map.

 

icon_apcpn_nwus_20.png


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2018-19 snowfall:

 

Feb. 3rd-4th: 8"

Feb. 8th-9th: 6"

Feb. 10th: 3"

Feb. 11th-12th: 6"

Feb. 22nd: Trace

Feb. 24th: Trace

March 6th: 0.25"

March 7th: 1.5"

 

 

Total: 24.75"

 

 


#77
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:30 AM

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I wasn't following it close enough to know how it did last Sunday but the RGEM looks quite snowy for the Central Sound.

This is at 10PM Friday with snow still going.

Attached Files


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#78
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:33 AM

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The HRDPS (Because it's 1:30AM so why not) shows 2-3 inches have fallen by 4PM.

Attached Files



#79
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:41 AM

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06z GFS snow starting in North Sound around 10AM Friday, everywhere else around 4PM.

#80
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:44 AM

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RGEM is very snowy.

Rotates numerous heavy bands through with totals of 4-9 inches by 4AM and snow is still cranking.

Attached Files



#81
bainbridgekid

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:48 AM

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6z GFS slips the low South more quickly which really limits amounts for the North Sound compared to the last few runs. Still gives Seattle about 7 inches though.


2018-19 snowfall:

 

Feb. 3rd-4th: 8"

Feb. 8th-9th: 6"

Feb. 10th: 3"

Feb. 11th-12th: 6"

Feb. 22nd: Trace

Feb. 24th: Trace

March 6th: 0.25"

March 7th: 1.5"

 

 

Total: 24.75"

 

 


#82
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:49 AM

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5-8 inches by 7AM on the 06z GFS.

Snowier than the 00z by this time.

Attached Files



#83
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:55 AM

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Overnight GFS seems drier so far.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#84
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:57 AM

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9 inches in DT Seattle by 1PM Saturday with a brisk North wind and temps in the upper 20s.

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#85
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:02 AM

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_17.png

 

There's the Monday system.  :)


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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#86
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:04 AM

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Down to 26 out there. Nice and crispy.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#87
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:07 AM

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Snow at the coast and Portland by Tuesday morning.

Attached Files



#88
bainbridgekid

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:10 AM

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Tuesday morning snow is back. Colder at this time than the 00z too.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_21.png


2018-19 snowfall:

 

Feb. 3rd-4th: 8"

Feb. 8th-9th: 6"

Feb. 10th: 3"

Feb. 11th-12th: 6"

Feb. 22nd: Trace

Feb. 24th: Trace

March 6th: 0.25"

March 7th: 1.5"

 

 

Total: 24.75"

 

 


#89
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:10 AM

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Low hugging the coast more. Looks like some strong easterly gradients.

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#90
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:17 AM

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4PM Monday - 4PM Tuesday.

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#91
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:27 AM

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Round #3.

Attached Files


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#92
MillCreekMike

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:30 AM

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Wow that system on Valentine's Day has a lot of moisture with it. Big snow shadow over the Central Sound though.



#93
Brennan

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:34 AM

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Wow that system on Valentine's Day has a lot of moisture with it. Big snow shadow over the Central Sound though.

Finally something that favors North Sound! Lock it in... It's happening... You guys won't even be able to track it down south because you'll be buried in 20" of snow without power. 


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#94
MillCreekMike

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:37 AM

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Block on the 06z is much stronger than the block on the 00z.


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#95
MillCreekMike

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:48 AM

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This low hangs out on the coast for 3-4 days without really moving but doesn't really bring much precip inland.

 

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_40.png   185.42KB   1 downloads



#96
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:51 AM

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This low hangs out on the coast for 3-4 days without really moving but doesn't really bring much precip inland.

 

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_40.png

 

Banding always possible in these setups.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#97
MillCreekMike

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:53 AM

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FV3 MUCH drier for Friday/Saturday..

 

Attached File  sn10_acc.us_nw.png   143.05KB   6 downloads



#98
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:55 AM

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I cannot believe how cold the 06z is.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#99
MillCreekMike

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:55 AM

MillCreekMike

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  • LocationMill Creek, WA (480 feet)

06z GFS keeps us in the freezer through the end of the run FWIW.



#100
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:57 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

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  • LocationSilverton, OR

FV3 MUCH drier for Friday/Saturday..

 

attachicon.gifsn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

Probably the best FV-3 run for SLE and EUG. Must be colder. Not as good for here, but still 6-8".


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 






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