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February 2019 Snow Event - Part 2

Victoria Vancouver Bellingham Seattle Tacoma Olympia Portland Salem Eugene
* * * * - 3 votes

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#101
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:59 AM

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Low of 19 so far overnight. Hit 19 about 11pm, so that put yesterday at 36/19. A -12 departure for the date. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#102
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 03:01 AM

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The 06z run has thickness values below 522 at PDX from hour 192-384. Totally nuts. 


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#103
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 03:03 AM

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PDX ensemble mean now falls to -10.5C at 850mb on early Sunday morning. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#104
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 03:16 AM

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-4 so far this morning at Yakima. Some other notable temps at 3am.

 

Sea Tac 25

BLI 20

Olympia 17

Pasco 1

Spokane 7

Pendleton 4

Vancouver 23

Salem 27

Medford 25

The Dalles 16

Meacham -11


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#105
MillCreekMike

Posted 07 February 2019 - 03:22 AM

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GFS and FV3 are not on the same page with the Kona low.

 

GFS op 

 

Attached File  p.png   192.96KB   0 downloads]

 

FV3

 

Attached File  l.png   189.38KB   0 downloads



#106
MillCreekMike

Posted 07 February 2019 - 03:57 AM

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NWS Seattle issued a Winter Storm Watch. Saying 5-8” for most but some may see 2-4” and some may see up to 12”.
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#107
ShawniganLake

Posted 07 February 2019 - 04:25 AM

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6z GFS took away most of the snow on Vancouver Island with the next system. Looks like Victoria’s longest snow drought since 1940 may continue.

#108
FroYoBro

Posted 07 February 2019 - 04:29 AM

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Finally got a look at the 00z Euro. Looks absolutely insane early next week. Even if Portland mostly misses out on the weekend system, we should eventually get involved in the fun.

#109
MossMan

Posted 07 February 2019 - 04:32 AM

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Hopefully an area around northern Snohomish Co will be the lucky recipient of a deformation band or CZ.

Warm this morning...currently 20.8. My standards have sure changed since a week ago!

#110
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 04:37 AM

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The FV-3 now shows the Monday system too...

 

It's an interesting run because it then shows energy undercutting and a couple very wet days which would be mild and then the northerly flow and cold troughing takes over again by next weekend.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#111
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 04:38 AM

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Nice copy past AFD from Portland NWS this morning.  :mellow:


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#112
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 04:42 AM

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RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1105 AM PST WED FEB 6 2019

...NEW DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FEBRUARY 6TH...

NOTE: STATIONS MARKED WITH * INDICATE THAT THE STATION REPORTS ONCE
PER DAY. FOR CONSISTENCY...THESE VALUES ARE CONSIDERED TO HAVE
OCCURRED ON THE DAY THE OBSERVATION WAS TAKEN BUT MAY HAVE ACTUALLY
OCCURRED (ESPECIALLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE) ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.

STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS
RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN

YAKIMA,WA 0 / 1985 -6 1909
*SELAH, WA 10 / 2014 -4 1998


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#113
MossMan

Posted 07 February 2019 - 04:46 AM

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If people are into this (I know I am) you might want to save JAYA’s overnight AFD for history purposes.

#114
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 04:53 AM

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Here are a few numbers to watch. Some records at PDX I think could be in jeopardy over the next week. I included Saturday's snowfall record though I don't think that one is in danger.

Record min Max
2/11: 38 (1981)
2/12: 35 (1990

Record Lows
2/11: 24 (1948)
2/12: 24 (1948)
2/13: 23 (1990)

Daily snowfall
2/8: T (1985)
2/9: 4.0" (1939)
2/10: 0.2" (1949)
2/11: 1.5" (1949)


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#115
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 05:02 AM

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Looks like the low of -17 this morning at Joseph, OR tied their record from 1929. Their late season benchmark is -22 on 2/13/1933. 

 

They have hit -10 as late as March 5, 1945 and -3 on 4/1/1936, so it is a pretty cold area. 


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#116
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 05:18 AM

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Current temp at Meacham, OR is -13. Breaks their record for the date by 9 degrees. Though their old station location was a few hundred feet lower and MUCH COLDER.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#117
Tyler Mode

Posted 07 February 2019 - 05:23 AM

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18.8 for a low so far, coldest of the event.  PDX AFD says it will be updated shortly (this was posted at 3:58 AM)


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#118
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 05:29 AM

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18.8 for a low so far, coldest of the event.  PDX AFD says it will be updated shortly (this was posted at 3:58 AM)

 

Good write up just put out by Weagle. Sounds like they are expecting 1-3" for the I-5 corridor of NW OR/SW WA, but going to wait for 12z guidance before posting any watches or warnings. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#119
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 05:34 AM

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18.8 for a low so far, coldest of the event.  PDX AFD says it will be updated shortly (this was posted at 3:58 AM)

 

I'm back down to 19. Hoping a I can shave 1-2 degrees off it by sunrise.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#120
MillCreekMike

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:11 AM

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NWS calling for 8-12” in Seattle. WOW!

Attached File  9B5650E2-AEE6-4417-A7A5-E29112757237.jpeg   147.96KB   2 downloads
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#121
Esquimalt

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:11 AM

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6z GFS took away most of the snow on Vancouver Island with the next system. Looks like Victoria’s longest snow drought since 1940 may continue.


Looks like we’ve lost the ensembles support too. Is it just too dry?

#122
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:18 AM

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NAM really hugs the coast with that low Friday night.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#123
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:24 AM

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This system looks like a colder (Down in NW Oregon) version of last Sunday's system. NAM is even starting me off Friday morning with some weak deformation band snow from the low going into California. Also looks like the NAM wants to slam areas east of I-5 with precip and dry slot the west valley/west metro. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#124
MossMan

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:25 AM

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NWS calling for 8-12” in Seattle. WOW!

9B5650E2-AEE6-4417-A7A5-E29112757237.jpeg

Their numbers seem very high now with what the trend has been to really scale things back...but hey I ended up with just under a foot on Monday...no models predict that so hopefully we still get buried!!
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#125
ttt

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:31 AM

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Dyzx3EbXQAArmLR.jpg



#126
MillCreekMike

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:34 AM

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Wow the 3km and 12km NAM is awesome for North King and Snohomish counties.

#127
ShawniganLake

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:39 AM

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Looks like we’ve lost the ensembles support too. Is it just too dry?

Ensembles are meaningless 36hrs out. Looks like the low just developed a bit slower on this run

#128
Timmy

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:39 AM

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My pregnant wife is flying back from Vegas to pdx 5pm Saturday. What are the chances her flight is canceled? Should I have her get an earlier flight ?

#129
MossMan

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:40 AM

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Wow the 3km and 12km NAM is awesome for North King and Snohomish counties.

MAPS!! MAPS!!!!! 😀

#130
Timmy

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:41 AM

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Pdx -dls gradient up to -5! Good outflow for pdx

#131
MillCreekMike

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:42 AM

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MAPS!! MAPS!!!!! 😀


Has us in the bullseye


Attached File  99464969-6015-490E-A321-C462FCD62A9F.png   143.59KB   2 downloads

#132
Esquimalt

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:42 AM

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Ensembles are meaningless 36hrs out. Looks like the low just developed a bit slower on this run


Mesoscales still look good. What do you think of 4 to 6 inches?

#133
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:42 AM

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My pregnant wife is flying back from Vegas to pdx 5pm Saturday. What are the chances her flight is canceled? Should I have her get an earlier flight ?

 

I really don't see it being a cancel flight type of storm even if PDX does get an inch or two. I flew out of PDX on 12/14/16 when it was snowing and my flight wasn't delayed by more than 30-45 mins to de-ice.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#134
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:42 AM

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6z GFS took away most of the snow on Vancouver Island with the next system. Looks like Victoria’s longest snow drought since 1940 may continue.

 

Not a fan of that run, hopefully it doesn't become a trend. Nice to see the 12z 3k NAM looking good though. Hopefully the 12z GFS flips back.

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_48.png


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#135
MossMan

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:48 AM

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Has us in the bullseye


99464969-6015-490E-A321-C462FCD62A9F.png

Thanks! I would be okay with that verifying!

#136
hawkstwelve

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:50 AM

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I figured NWS would bite by today. Looks like they did. :)

#137
ShawniganLake

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:50 AM

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Mesoscales still look good. What do you think of 4 to 6 inches?

Still seems reasonable. NAM still looks good. ICON is up next.

#138
Esquimalt

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:51 AM

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Not a fan of that run, hopefully it doesn't become a trend. Nice to see the 12z 3k NAM looking good though. Hopefully the 12z GFS flips back.
 
nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_48.png


That setup shown on the NAM is essentially perfect for us. The NAM output shows 9 inches forus. RGEM also has a rather similar setup. Lets go mesoscales!

#139
Jesse

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:54 AM

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Has us in the bullseye


99464969-6015-490E-A321-C462FCD62A9F.png


Has us in a bullseye too, but a different kind. :lol:
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#140
ShawniganLake

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:56 AM

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Attached File  0D776048-8A84-411D-B234-3B41621E300C.png   446.91KB   0 downloads
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#141
Farmboy

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:58 AM

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Wow, no matter which way you slice this thing, looks like Port Angeles and Sequim get nailed pretty good.
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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#142
snow_wizard

Posted 07 February 2019 - 07:15 AM

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After viewing the 6z GFS and FV3 I have come to the conclusion I'm going to have start just focusing on the short term.  Just too much sensory overload!


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#143
Jesse

Posted 07 February 2019 - 07:18 AM

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After viewing the 6z GFS and FV3 I have come to the conclusion I'm going to have start just focusing on the short term. Just too much sensory overload!


I know what you mean!

#144
Jesse

Posted 07 February 2019 - 07:20 AM

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Down to at least 24 at PDX, 21 at VUO, 21 here.

Very nice sunrise. Some high clouds moving in later today could help hold temps down a bit too.

#145
Jginmartini

Posted 07 February 2019 - 07:21 AM

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After viewing the 6z GFS and FV3 I have come to the conclusion I'm going to have start just focusing on the short term.  Just too much sensory overload!


Lol but I agree! Unable to process what’s unfolding

18* with a blushing pink sunrise in progress
Layman’s terms please 😁

#146
K%%

Posted 07 February 2019 - 07:22 AM

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1-3 inches from NWS PDX looks a little conservative.....

"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#147
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 07 February 2019 - 07:24 AM

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Good morning. Was able to get some good sleep last night. I'm refreshed and ready for the model runs.
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Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#148
snow_wizard

Posted 07 February 2019 - 07:26 AM

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OMG!  The NWS forecast looks like something from Wisconsin instead of Western WA.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#149
MossMan

Posted 07 February 2019 - 07:27 AM

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OMG! The NWS forecast looks like something from Wisconsin instead of Western WA.

Yep! Be sure to take screen shots for the weather history scrapbook!

#150
Jginmartini

Posted 07 February 2019 - 07:27 AM

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East wind currently active and increasing in the gorge

Attached Files


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Layman’s terms please 😁





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