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2/11 - 2/13 Major Winter Storm


Tom

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If you are to use the LRC as guidance, the next big ticket system to effect our Sub Forum early next week will most likely be a large scale system.  Back in both LRC cycles, specifically the last cycle (Dec 25th-28th), this system produced a dynamic storm system that dug into the 4 corners and ejected out into the Plains states and eventually into the GL's.  Could this be another Blizzard???  With any substantial blocking across S Canada, I would imagine this storm take a similar track as the storm that is currently targeting our region.  

 

Let's discuss....

 

Needless to say, the active pattern continues and the central CONUS is locked into a favorable storm track for tracking major winter storms.  There is quite the ensemble support that this storm should be a powerful one.  The "Rich get Richer" as I don't see why this storm will not deliver a major snowstorm to those NW of IL/IN/MI. 

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This looks interesting for my area. Have to closely monitor it during the next several days. Great potential. I just need this storm to shift more south, otherwise, I will be in the warm sector.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Big changes showing up so far today on the 12z GFS as there is quite the strong Banana HP across S Canada as the systems slides east.  Seems like more energy tries to skirt underneath the HP which allows a more W/E track instead of cutting NW to quick.  Not a wound up storm but a far reaching system.

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The Canadian has always been weak with this system.  The GFS 500 mb maps are showing pretty large changes over the western/central US from run to run.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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How does it look over here?  TT isn't loading the 12z run...

 

The low tracks from about KC to the southern Chicago area.  However, it appears to be occluding so the warmth does not get yanked north.

 

gfs_namer_144_precip_p36.gif

gfs_namer_123_dom_precip_type.gif

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Even though the track is still through the Chicago area the cold air is already in place for this to produce mostly snow for a pretty big area. The big takeaway so far with the 12z runs was the cold air bleeding in prior to the start of the storm.

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The low tracks from about KC to the southern Chicago area.  However, it appears to be occluding so the warmth does not get yanked north.

 

gfs_namer_144_precip_p36.gif

gfs_namer_123_dom_precip_type.gif

 

This, along with the UKIE, is a solution that many of the EPS members were showing the other day and last night. Something to keep an eye on going forward.

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Even though the track is still through the Chicago area the cold air is already in place for this to produce mostly snow for a pretty big area. The big takeaway so far with the 12z runs was the cold air bleeding in prior to the start of the storm.

This is prob the best case scenario for many of us to see snow instead of a wound up system cutting NW.  I think many would agree to see an occluding low.

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The low tracks from about KC to the southern Chicago area.  However, it appears to be occluding so the warmth does not get yanked north.

 

 

 

 

That's the one thing that's consistent with these stronger solutions, even the ones that take the sfc low across Iowa. The low is occluding which shunts the warm sector well off to the south and east of the sfc low track. I don't think a surface low cutting over us would be the end of the world in these scenarios.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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This storm has great potential for a lot of members on this forum.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Euro also weaker/south

 

More like MUCH weaker and south.  Last run was an amped cutter.  This run is a much weaker, nw-se stretched out wave of low pressure.  Cedar Rapids only gets about 0.20" from it.

 

Needless to say, this system will be changing further between now and Tuesday.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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HAHAHA!! Sorry about that I keep forgetting I am one of only 3 people from Northwest Indiana that post on here LOL!! Yea It's been a while since we have had a 10"+ storm.  But I don't think we need to start a Northwest Indiana complaint thread....LMAO!!

 

Every time you write NWI I think norther Wisconsin first and get really confused, lol. You are a good sport here, I hope you get some good snow soon. I am cheering for you, always.

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HAHAHA!! Sorry about that I keep forgetting I am one of only 3 people from Northwest Indiana that post on here LOL!! Yea It's been a while since we have had a 10"+ storm.  But I don't think we need to start a Northwest Indiana complaint thread....LMAO!!

 

 

This winter has been very frustrating, but didn't your location get dbl digits in last Feb's wild week?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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