Jump to content

Welcome!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

2/11 - 2/13 Major Winter Storm

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#1
Tom

Posted 07 February 2019 - 05:10 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 18301 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

If you are to use the LRC as guidance, the next big ticket system to effect our Sub Forum early next week will most likely be a large scale system.  Back in both LRC cycles, specifically the last cycle (Dec 25th-28th), this system produced a dynamic storm system that dug into the 4 corners and ejected out into the Plains states and eventually into the GL's.  Could this be another Blizzard???  With any substantial blocking across S Canada, I would imagine this storm take a similar track as the storm that is currently targeting our region.  

 

Let's discuss....

 

Needless to say, the active pattern continues and the central CONUS is locked into a favorable storm track for tracking major winter storms.  There is quite the ensemble support that this storm should be a powerful one.  The "Rich get Richer" as I don't see why this storm will not deliver a major snowstorm to those NW of IL/IN/MI. 

Attached Files


  • Snowshoe and Clinton like this

#2
westMJim

Posted 07 February 2019 - 05:32 AM

westMJim

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1333 posts
  • LocationGrand Rapids, mi

GRR is already saying Michigan will be on the warm side of this event so more rain is the way to go with this one. Maybe some snow on the back side.



#3
james1976

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:25 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4968 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Good hit for me on almost all those members
  • Snowshoe likes this

#4
Tony

Posted 07 February 2019 - 06:28 AM

Tony

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1736 posts
  • LocationDuPage County

Unfortunately another cutter in the works and the same areas getting hit the last couple days will get it again next week. We don't need anymore rain around here.


  • jaster220 likes this

#5
Iowawx

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:05 AM

Iowawx

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 589 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, Iowa

12Z GFS looks much better for Iowa. 



#6
Niko

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:06 AM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6325 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

This looks interesting for my area. Have to closely monitor it during the next several days. Great potential. I just need this storm to shift more south, otherwise, I will be in the warm sector.



#7
Money

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:09 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8545 posts
Much farther south this run

Low is much weaker though

#8
Tom

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:09 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 18301 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Big changes showing up so far today on the 12z GFS as there is quite the strong Banana HP across S Canada as the systems slides east.  Seems like more energy tries to skirt underneath the HP which allows a more W/E track instead of cutting NW to quick.  Not a wound up storm but a far reaching system.



#9
East Dubzz

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:11 AM

East Dubzz

    Advanced Member

  • Mods
  • 2764 posts
  • LocationDubuque, IA
Lol, that change in just one run is crazy.

#10
Tom

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:11 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 18301 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z GFS...looks more or less like an occluding low...

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png


  • Snowshoe and Iowawx like this

#11
CentralNebWeather

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:13 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2652 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

Not really a fan of any of these 12Z runs for Nebraska posters on here.  Much time for changes in the 4-5 days as usual.  NWS Hastings this morning did mention the storm but said way to many scenarios out yet to even get too excited.



#12
East Dubzz

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:15 AM

East Dubzz

    Advanced Member

  • Mods
  • 2764 posts
  • LocationDubuque, IA
CMC basically a no-show. Some light snow, but not much.

#13
Hawkeye

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:18 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2081 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

The Canadian has always been weak with this system.  The GFS 500 mb maps are showing pretty large changes over the western/central US from run to run.


season snowfall: 43.5"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#14
East Dubzz

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:27 AM

East Dubzz

    Advanced Member

  • Mods
  • 2764 posts
  • LocationDubuque, IA

The Canadian has always been weak with this system. The GFS 500 mb maps are showing pretty large changes over the western/central US from run to run.


I did notice that. Was shocked to see the difference over the last 4 runs. Safe to stay it does not have a good handle on that.

#15
Tom

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:03 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 18301 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z Ukie look south and similar to the GFS...good hit for IA/IL/S MN/WI...



#16
Hawkeye

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:06 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2081 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

The 12z FV3 clobbers much of Iowa.


season snowfall: 43.5"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#17
Tom

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:12 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 18301 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

The 12z FV3 clobbers much of Iowa.

How does it look over here?  TT isn't loading the 12z run...



#18
Tony

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:21 AM

Tony

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1736 posts
  • LocationDuPage County

How does it look over here?  TT isn't loading the 12z run...

 

The 12z FV3 clobbers much of Iowa.

Looks to hit N. IL hard from what I can see


  • Tom likes this

#19
Hawkeye

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:24 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2081 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

How does it look over here?  TT isn't loading the 12z run...

 

The low tracks from about KC to the southern Chicago area.  However, it appears to be occluding so the warmth does not get yanked north.

 

gfs_namer_144_precip_p36.gif

gfs_namer_123_dom_precip_type.gif


  • Tom, jaster220 and Clinton like this

season snowfall: 43.5"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#20
Tom

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:26 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 18301 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

*
POPULAR

12z FV3...impressive show shield...

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png


  • Niko, Hawkeye, jaster220 and 2 others like this

#21
Tony

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:30 AM

Tony

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1736 posts
  • LocationDuPage County

Even though the track is still through the Chicago area the cold air is already in place for this to produce mostly snow for a pretty big area. The big takeaway so far with the 12z runs was the cold air bleeding in prior to the start of the storm.


  • Tom likes this

#22
Tom

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:31 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 18301 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

The low tracks from about KC to the southern Chicago area.  However, it appears to be occluding so the warmth does not get yanked north.

 

gfs_namer_144_precip_p36.gif

gfs_namer_123_dom_precip_type.gif

 

This, along with the UKIE, is a solution that many of the EPS members were showing the other day and last night. Something to keep an eye on going forward.


  • Clinton likes this

#23
Tom

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:32 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 18301 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Even though the track is still through the Chicago area the cold air is already in place for this to produce mostly snow for a pretty big area. The big takeaway so far with the 12z runs was the cold air bleeding in prior to the start of the storm.

This is prob the best case scenario for many of us to see snow instead of a wound up system cutting NW.  I think many would agree to see an occluding low.


  • jaster220 and Clinton like this

#24
hlcater

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:33 AM

hlcater

    Awesome

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1647 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA

The low tracks from about KC to the southern Chicago area.  However, it appears to be occluding so the warmth does not get yanked north.

 

 

 

 

That's the one thing that's consistent with these stronger solutions, even the ones that take the sfc low across Iowa. The low is occluding which shunts the warm sector well off to the south and east of the sfc low track. I don't think a surface low cutting over us would be the end of the world in these scenarios.


2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 44.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#25
OmahaSnowFan

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:37 AM

OmahaSnowFan

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 56 posts
Yuck. Another 1-3”er for me? Long ways away but that’s all I’ve received this winter. Had some close calls with bigger amounts near me, but it seems safe to go with the theme all winter. Last 6” snowfall at my place is now 3+ years ago
  • jaster220 and snowstorm83 like this

#26
BMT

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:39 AM

BMT

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 61 posts
  • LocationMarion, IA
Sign me up!
  • jaster220 likes this

#27
Money

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:43 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8545 posts
Plenty of amped up solutions on gfs ensembles including sub 990’s

https://tropicaltidb...19020712&fh=120

#28
Niko

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:46 AM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6325 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

This storm has great potential for a lot of members on this forum.



#29
Money

Posted 07 February 2019 - 10:26 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8545 posts
Euro also weaker/south

#30
snowstorm83

Posted 07 February 2019 - 10:31 AM

snowstorm83

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 402 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE
GEFS looks nice for most of NE. Wouldn't throw in the towel quite yet.

#31
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 February 2019 - 10:34 AM

LNK_Weather

    Opinions don't care about your feelings

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4482 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)
Not sure I'm a fan of models consistently spawning all the moisture right on top of us. That has the potential for futility for here. Oh well, it's 5 days out.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 36.1"             Coldest Low: -8*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#32
Hawkeye

Posted 07 February 2019 - 11:06 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2081 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

Euro also weaker/south

 

More like MUCH weaker and south.  Last run was an amped cutter.  This run is a much weaker, nw-se stretched out wave of low pressure.  Cedar Rapids only gets about 0.20" from it.

 

Needless to say, this system will be changing further between now and Tuesday.


season snowfall: 43.5"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#33
SE Wisconsin

Posted 07 February 2019 - 11:18 AM

SE Wisconsin

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 75 posts

12z FV3...impressive show shield...

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

Interesting to look at the totals right along Lake Michigan from roughly Sheboygan down to Chicago.  Obviously lots of lake enhancement potential on this model run!


  • jaster220 likes this

#34
jcwxguy

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:07 PM

jcwxguy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1530 posts
  • LocationGretna, NE

GEFS looks nice for most of NE. Wouldn't throw in the towel quite yet.

looks good in particular for omaha/Lincoln

#35
FarmerRick

Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:14 PM

FarmerRick

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 185 posts
  • LocationWest Central Omaha

looks good in particular for omaha/Lincoln

 

 

Until the day before, then it'll be another 1-2 incher..


  • winterguy likes this

#36
indianajohn

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:15 PM

indianajohn

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 291 posts
  • LocationSchererville northwest indiana

Look like same Old story for NWI......we have been just south from all the action!!!


  • jaster220 likes this

#37
gimmesnow

Posted 07 February 2019 - 01:56 PM

gimmesnow

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 244 posts
  • LocationSE Wisconsin

Look like same Old story for NWI......we have been just south from all the action!!!

 

Every time you write NWI I think norther Wisconsin first and get really confused, lol. You are a good sport here, I hope you get some good snow soon. I am cheering for you, always.


  • jaster220 and indianajohn like this

#38
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 February 2019 - 02:18 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2261 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
18z GFS still looks pretty spread out but shows more life than that 12z run.

#39
indianajohn

Posted 07 February 2019 - 03:05 PM

indianajohn

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 291 posts
  • LocationSchererville northwest indiana

HAHAHA!! Sorry about that I keep forgetting I am one of only 3 people from Northwest Indiana that post on here LOL!! Yea It's been a while since we have had a 10"+ storm.  But I don't think we need to start a Northwest Indiana complaint thread....LMAO!!

 

Every time you write NWI I think norther Wisconsin first and get really confused, lol. You are a good sport here, I hope you get some good snow soon. I am cheering for you, always.


  • Snowshoe, jaster220, OKwx2k4 and 1 other like this

#40
jaster220

Posted 07 February 2019 - 04:35 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6182 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

HAHAHA!! Sorry about that I keep forgetting I am one of only 3 people from Northwest Indiana that post on here LOL!! Yea It's been a while since we have had a 10"+ storm.  But I don't think we need to start a Northwest Indiana complaint thread....LMAO!!

 

 

This winter has been very frustrating, but didn't your location get dbl digits in last Feb's wild week?


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 47.7"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 8.8 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#41
indianajohn

Posted 07 February 2019 - 04:52 PM

indianajohn

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 291 posts
  • LocationSchererville northwest indiana

I think you might be right or at least close to it Jaster. I own a restaurant so I usually judge a "monster storm" as one where I have to close the restaurant LOL!!!  usually around the 10"+ range, it's been years since I had to close my restaurant because of a snow storm. 

This winter has been very frustrating, but didn't your location get dbl digits in last Feb's wild week?


  • Snowshoe, jaster220 and OKwx2k4 like this

#42
Clinton

Posted 07 February 2019 - 07:58 PM

Clinton

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 353 posts
  • LocationWarrensburg, MO

00z GFS looking much stronger at hr90.



#43
jcwxguy

Posted 07 February 2019 - 07:59 PM

jcwxguy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1530 posts
  • LocationGretna, NE
Rainer 00z gfs

Attached Files



#44
Money

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:01 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8545 posts
FYI

Gem is also much stronger

1000 MB L in N IL

#45
Grizzcoat

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:01 PM

Grizzcoat

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2018 posts
  • LocationCentral Iowa

Rainer 00z gfs

initially yes-- but than it occludes and really wraps in cold air.


2018-19 Snowfall- 41.8" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 20.5" JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#46
GDR

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:02 PM

GDR

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1536 posts
Looking like a rain fest around these parts

#47
Grizzcoat

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:05 PM

Grizzcoat

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2018 posts
  • LocationCentral Iowa

E.SD special.


2018-19 Snowfall- 41.8" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 20.5" JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#48
Grizzcoat

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:08 PM

Grizzcoat

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2018 posts
  • LocationCentral Iowa

Both events---Attached File  USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_132.gif   67.4KB   4 downloads


2018-19 Snowfall- 41.8" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 20.5" JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#49
jcwxguy

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:13 PM

jcwxguy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1530 posts
  • LocationGretna, NE

FYI

Gem is also much stronger

1000 MB L in N IL

where is the gem available so early?

#50
jaster220

Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:16 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6182 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Both events---attachicon.gifUSA_ASNOWI72_sfc_132.gif

 

Looks like an April map. Is it March yet?


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 47.7"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 8.8 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."