Tom Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 If you are to use the LRC as guidance, the next big ticket system to effect our Sub Forum early next week will most likely be a large scale system. Back in both LRC cycles, specifically the last cycle (Dec 25th-28th), this system produced a dynamic storm system that dug into the 4 corners and ejected out into the Plains states and eventually into the GL's. Could this be another Blizzard??? With any substantial blocking across S Canada, I would imagine this storm take a similar track as the storm that is currently targeting our region. Let's discuss.... Needless to say, the active pattern continues and the central CONUS is locked into a favorable storm track for tracking major winter storms. There is quite the ensemble support that this storm should be a powerful one. The "Rich get Richer" as I don't see why this storm will not deliver a major snowstorm to those NW of IL/IN/MI. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 GRR is already saying Michigan will be on the warm side of this event so more rain is the way to go with this one. Maybe some snow on the back side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Good hit for me on almost all those members 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Unfortunately another cutter in the works and the same areas getting hit the last couple days will get it again next week. We don't need anymore rain around here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 12Z GFS looks much better for Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 This looks interesting for my area. Have to closely monitor it during the next several days. Great potential. I just need this storm to shift more south, otherwise, I will be in the warm sector. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Much farther south this run Low is much weaker though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Big changes showing up so far today on the 12z GFS as there is quite the strong Banana HP across S Canada as the systems slides east. Seems like more energy tries to skirt underneath the HP which allows a more W/E track instead of cutting NW to quick. Not a wound up storm but a far reaching system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Lol, that change in just one run is crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 12z GFS...looks more or less like an occluding low... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Not really a fan of any of these 12Z runs for Nebraska posters on here. Much time for changes in the 4-5 days as usual. NWS Hastings this morning did mention the storm but said way to many scenarios out yet to even get too excited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 CMC basically a no-show. Some light snow, but not much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The Canadian has always been weak with this system. The GFS 500 mb maps are showing pretty large changes over the western/central US from run to run. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The Canadian has always been weak with this system. The GFS 500 mb maps are showing pretty large changes over the western/central US from run to run.I did notice that. Was shocked to see the difference over the last 4 runs. Safe to stay it does not have a good handle on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 12z Ukie look south and similar to the GFS...good hit for IA/IL/S MN/WI... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The 12z FV3 clobbers much of Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The 12z FV3 clobbers much of Iowa.How does it look over here? TT isn't loading the 12z run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 How does it look over here? TT isn't loading the 12z run... The 12z FV3 clobbers much of Iowa.Looks to hit N. IL hard from what I can see 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 How does it look over here? TT isn't loading the 12z run... The low tracks from about KC to the southern Chicago area. However, it appears to be occluding so the warmth does not get yanked north. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 12z FV3...impressive show shield... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Even though the track is still through the Chicago area the cold air is already in place for this to produce mostly snow for a pretty big area. The big takeaway so far with the 12z runs was the cold air bleeding in prior to the start of the storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The low tracks from about KC to the southern Chicago area. However, it appears to be occluding so the warmth does not get yanked north. This, along with the UKIE, is a solution that many of the EPS members were showing the other day and last night. Something to keep an eye on going forward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Even though the track is still through the Chicago area the cold air is already in place for this to produce mostly snow for a pretty big area. The big takeaway so far with the 12z runs was the cold air bleeding in prior to the start of the storm.This is prob the best case scenario for many of us to see snow instead of a wound up system cutting NW. I think many would agree to see an occluding low. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The low tracks from about KC to the southern Chicago area. However, it appears to be occluding so the warmth does not get yanked north. That's the one thing that's consistent with these stronger solutions, even the ones that take the sfc low across Iowa. The low is occluding which shunts the warm sector well off to the south and east of the sfc low track. I don't think a surface low cutting over us would be the end of the world in these scenarios. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Yuck. Another 1-3”er for me? Long ways away but that’s all I’ve received this winter. Had some close calls with bigger amounts near me, but it seems safe to go with the theme all winter. Last 6” snowfall at my place is now 3+ years ago 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Sign me up! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Plenty of amped up solutions on gfs ensembles including sub 990’s https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2019020712&fh=120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 This storm has great potential for a lot of members on this forum. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Euro also weaker/south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 GEFS looks nice for most of NE. Wouldn't throw in the towel quite yet. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Not sure I'm a fan of models consistently spawning all the moisture right on top of us. That has the potential for futility for here. Oh well, it's 5 days out. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Euro also weaker/south More like MUCH weaker and south. Last run was an amped cutter. This run is a much weaker, nw-se stretched out wave of low pressure. Cedar Rapids only gets about 0.20" from it. Needless to say, this system will be changing further between now and Tuesday. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 12z FV3...impressive show shield... Interesting to look at the totals right along Lake Michigan from roughly Sheboygan down to Chicago. Obviously lots of lake enhancement potential on this model run! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 GEFS looks nice for most of NE. Wouldn't throw in the towel quite yet. looks good in particular for omaha/Lincoln Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 looks good in particular for omaha/Lincoln Until the day before, then it'll be another 1-2 incher.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Look like same Old story for NWI......we have been just south from all the action!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Look like same Old story for NWI......we have been just south from all the action!!! Every time you write NWI I think norther Wisconsin first and get really confused, lol. You are a good sport here, I hope you get some good snow soon. I am cheering for you, always. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 18z GFS still looks pretty spread out but shows more life than that 12z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 HAHAHA!! Sorry about that I keep forgetting I am one of only 3 people from Northwest Indiana that post on here LOL!! Yea It's been a while since we have had a 10"+ storm. But I don't think we need to start a Northwest Indiana complaint thread....LMAO!! Every time you write NWI I think norther Wisconsin first and get really confused, lol. You are a good sport here, I hope you get some good snow soon. I am cheering for you, always. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 HAHAHA!! Sorry about that I keep forgetting I am one of only 3 people from Northwest Indiana that post on here LOL!! Yea It's been a while since we have had a 10"+ storm. But I don't think we need to start a Northwest Indiana complaint thread....LMAO!! This winter has been very frustrating, but didn't your location get dbl digits in last Feb's wild week? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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