2/11 - 2/13 Major Winter Storm

[Niko]

So far... forecasts are calling for couple of inches of snow for my area and then, changing to a mix, perhaps even plain rain. I am expecting more changes.

[Snowshoe]

21 imby? Book it!

 

Sunday/Monday map then both events combined

[gimmesnow]

I have this sinking feeling that this is going to be another rain/freezing rain maker for most on this forum with very little or only minor accumulations of snow.  Trends unfortunately seem to be pointing in that direction.

 

I don't know, I felt that way looking at GFS but even FV3, as garbage as it is, has backed off all the rain for my area. I said earlier it has had a habit of doing this all winter long, and the 06z run shows exactly that. A massive back tracking on the rain and mix in this system, and also later systems.

[gosaints]

This thing is already being sampled

[East Dubzz]

12z GFS weaker and further SE. My goodness the models are really struggle with this one.

[East Dubzz]

This thing is already being sampled

I’m assuming this is coming from the system about to drop snow on Seattle?

[gosaints]

12z GFS weaker and further SE. My goodness the models are really struggle with this one.

There are alot of players on the field from the 1st wave to the kicker over the pacific.  They are gonna be everywhere for awhile

[Tom]

12z GFS weaker and further SE. My goodness the models are really struggle with this one.

Although, it does bomb out as it tracks through the GL's which many ensemble members are showing.

[East Dubzz]

There are alot of players on the field from the 1st wave to the kicker over the pacific. They are gonna be everywhere for awhile

No doubt. I expect changes, but the inconsistency every single model run is just interesting.

 

That said, that run gives at least advisory level snow from HWY 20 and north, and really gives a good snowfall to the areas that just got hit.

[East Dubzz]

Didn’t realize there was such a short break between the Sunday storm and this one.

[Tom]

Last night the 00z GGEM was N and today its back S....models are struggling with the blocking HP across SE Canada...and how far the energy digs in the Plains.

 

Today's 12z GGEM...including the Sun/Mon wave...

 

[Tony]

I'm going to be selfish and pray this storm our way...

[SE Wisconsin]

It seems to me that modeling has been fairly consistent (or as consistent as forecast models can be) with the snow for Sunday, but have been all over the place with the system for Monday-Tuesday.  Interesting!

[Tom]

12z Ukie looks like the GGEM and digs the energy way S towards S MO/S IL by Hr 96 and then amps it up cutting NE into the GL's into a 996mb storm just NW of Toronto...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[gosaints]

I’m assuming this is coming from the system about to drop snow on Seattle?

Right... What is interesting is the the sunday lobe of vorticity is offshore currently in the pacific while the monday/tuesday deal is already on shore

[East Dubzz]

It seems to me that modeling has been fairly consistent (or as consistent as forecast models can be) with the snow for Sunday, but have been all over the place with the system for Monday-Tuesday. Interesting!

It helps that the Sunday system is much less complex and also a widespread light to moderate snow event. Much easier for the models to get a grasp on that, as there is much less moving pieces.

[gosaints]

The ensembles and the GFS are not on the same page

[St Paul Storm]

The ensembles and the GFS are not on the same page

Nope. Ensembles are the way to go with this one to see the trends. These op runs aren’t going to tell the story right now.

[East Dubzz]

Right... What is interesting is the the sunday lobe of vorticity is offshore currently in the pacific while the monday/tuesday deal is already on shore

Interesting. Is the piece of energy for the Monday Tuesday system currently up in Canada, or am I looking at it incorrectly?

[Tom]

12z FV3...started the NW trend....

 

[gosaints]

Interesting. Is the piece of energy for the Monday Tuesday system currently up in Canada, or am I looking at it incorrectly?

yes its in canada

[hlcater]

At this moment, I don’t think we have a trend anywhere. Essentially spaghetti at a wall. Wide spread yet.

[East Dubzz]

12z FV3...started the NW trend....

 

Excuse my ignorance, but what NW trend is there? Seems as if most models have gone further SE in their 12z runs.

[gosaints]

Excuse my ignorance, but what NW trend is there? Seems as if most models have gone further SE in their 12z runs.

that model itself was further south in its prior run

[East Dubzz]

12z Euro looks further SE, I believe.

 

996mb SLP around very NE Missouri/far SE Iowa at HR 96. Had a 994mb low in central Iowa at HR 108 on the 00z run.

 

Still waiting for the precip maps to load.

[East Dubzz]

A lot of people would be pretty happy with this run. Really hate how the I can’t get Kuchera snowfall in 24-hour increments, because it gets confusing with both system’s snowfalls included.

[East Dubzz]

Tried to include a map that shows the snow for everyone. Here’s what the 12z Euro has, which includes both storms.

[jcwxguy]

12z euro

[james1976]

My God that would be epic

[gimmesnow]

This would make for a wild three weeks of weather. Record cold, rain, icy BS, then a ton of snow. Hope some more of this turns around, extended forecast looks awful here.

[St Paul Storm]

Tried to include a map that shows the snow for everyone. Here’s what the 12z Euro has, which includes both storms.

Ummmmm. Holy *!$

[gosaints]

ha ha eye candy...

[gosaints]

That is some sort of parade of storms through the whole run of the EURO

[Tony]

Could do without the freezing rain the Euro is showing for N. IL but otherwise good 12z runs. Big numbers also being thrown out for this sub-forum on the Euro.

[SE Wisconsin]

If the Euro holds - glacier warnings may be needed for MN, IA and WI.

[hlcater]

That 12z euro, the entire run. Wow. Must be 15” or more for 95% of the sub through 240

[Minny_Weather]

10" here at the end of the Euro run. Nothing to write home about, but it'd be a pretty nice week and a half before sun angle starts to become an issue later in the month & above average temps mean more consistent 50s.

[Tom]

12z Euro/JMA pretty darn similar in placement with the SLP and qpf...

 

 

 

[Stormgeek]

Man, this pattern is insane! It is so strange seeing the AFD and every one has the form of talking of the potential for a storm in a few days and then fades to yet another potential storm in the longer range. Have not seen something like this for a while. SPS and I will take an order of the Euro, to go, please. On another note, the storm yesterday left all the evergreens around here covered and it is stunning with the sun out!

[Stacsh]

GRR is seeing mostly snow here with the potential track. Cold air in place blah blah. Probably an ice storm.