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February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV


Geos

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Very moist system, that's apparent. Just don't know who gets snow and who doesn't, and I'm sure a system like this could present a surprise.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Current Version Previous Version: 1 2 3 4 5

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 

FXUS66 KSEW 100032

AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

432 PM PST Sat Feb 9 2019

 

.SYNOPSIS...

Winter-like pattern will remain in place for the foreseeable

future as a long wave trough dominates the synoptic pattern.

Several opportunities for winter weather are likely this upcoming

week, beginning tomorrow with a quick round of accumulating snow

and another, potentially stronger, system moving through Monday

and Tuesday. Another round of winter weather will be monitored

late in the week.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A very active short term period is in store for western

Washington as another round of winter weather is expected.

 

A 00z synoptic scale analysis reveals a broad area of cyclonic

flow extending from northern Canada into the Northwestern US. A

closed area of low pressure can be found embedded within this

larger scale trough. This closed low was responsible for a rather

significant winter storm across western Washington

yesterday/last night. It will continue to migrate well south of

the area through the overnight hours. Radar imagery confirmed that

most of the snow activity has diminished across the CWA, with

really only a few light, weakening echoes present. Satellite

imagery and a simple glance out the office window even reveal some

peeks of sun across the area, a welcomed sight after the storm.

Sun did little in the way of warming temps this afternoon with

most locations stuck in the upper 20s to low 30s. Given snow pack

and clearing skies, temps will be cold tonight with lows in the

teens. Winds will be on their way down but conditions will still

be breezy with wind chills in the single digits for many. Whatcom

County will likely see wind chills just below zero.

 

Dry and cold conditions will greet us tomorrow morning. The cold

will stay with us but the dry conditions will give way to the

beginning of another long round of winter weather for western

Washington. Given the stubborn long wave pattern in place, yet

another shortwave trough will approach western Washington Sunday

afternoon. It will track just along the interior of the BC

coastline with associated sfc low across Vancouver Is into the

nearby offshore waters of the northern Washington Coast. This

system will have no problem picking up Pacific moisture as it

dives into the local area. This means the development of

precipitation and given the cold temps /high temps near freezing

tomorrow given deep snowpack/, as you might guess, the precip

will be in the form of snow. Snow will push from coastal and

northwest parts of the CWA tomorrow afternoon and move E/SE

through the evening and into the overnight hours. This will be a

fast moving system but nonetheless a decent snow producer. The

track appears slightly further north than original trends so have

included snow accumulation mainly from Mt Vernon south. Given the

quick moving nature have included a quick pickup of an additional

1 to 3 inches tomorrow for most within its path. As always,

slight error in the official track of the system may result in

accumulation further north or south. But we emphasize for most

locations to plan for a few more inches of snow by day`s end

tomorrow.

 

Then....as if we haven`t had enough comes a much more concerning

system quickly on the heels of Sunday system. By very early

Monday morning, a low will dive down from Aleutian Islands,

carrying with it plenty of Pacific moisture. Moisture will spread

rapidly across the area from south to north through the day on

Monday. Given continued cold air in place, it appears it would be

hard to get air to modify enough for it not fall as snow. Snow

potential looks likely Monday for much of the area though do think

areas along the coast may see rain or rain/snow mix. Late Monday

into Tuesday the system will then move east, with indication of

enhanced precip across portions of the area with the low slow to

exit the area. Could see a period of heavy snowfall Monday night

into Tuesday. Not really going into details with snow amounts at

this time but there is the potential to see similar snow amounts

to what we have seen with the previous two storms. This is

something to watch closely. Despite low confidence in amounts and

the locations that will see the highest amounts, have issued a

Winter Storm Watch for the entire area highlighting both systems

/Sunday system and Monday-Tuesday system/, since they occur so

close to one another where combined snow totals from each one

could approach Advisory or Warning levels. Time will tell. At this

point it is best to pay attention to forecast updates over the

next 24 hours as details regarding this system become more clear.

 

Kovacik

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

The local area looks to see a brief break in precip Wednesday

before the potential for yet another system, possibly wintry,

Thursday into Friday. Moisture could then linger through the

weekend. Still no real promising sign of a pattern change in the

next 2 weeks. This is my first winter in western Washington-does

Spring exist here?

 

Kovacik

 

&&

 

.AVIATION...Area of low pressure is currently located along the

central Oregon coastline at this hour. This system will continue

pushing southward out of the area as the air mass begins to dry for

a period. Continued improvements in CIGS expected through the

afternoon with IFR cigs tonight. Winds will remain gusty mainly at

KBLI through this evening before weakening during the overnight

hours. Winds beginning to weaken elsewhere by 03z. Brief dry period

will continue through Sunday morning before next system approaches.

Expect CIGS to lower west to east on Sunday with MVFR/IFR cigs

returning to the Sound between 20z-22z. Light snow likely late

Sunday into Sunday night will generally accumulate 1-3".

 

KSEA...IFR CIGS will continue through the overnight hours as a brief

dry period continues. Surface wind generally 10-20 knots through 10z

before weakening to less than 10 knots by early morning. Southerly

winds will return between 14-17z ahead of the next system. Light

snow expected after 23z Sunday and will continue through the early

overnight hours. Accumulations generally 1-3". JD

 

&&

 

.MARINE...Gale Warnings remain in effect for all waters due to

strong Fraser river outflow. Winds will be strongest over the

Northern Inland Waters with N/NE winds of 35 to 45 knots. Winds

will gradually ease late tonight into Sunday morning.

 

A pair of systems will affect the waters late Sunday through

Tuesday. Gusty Fraser river outflow winds will occur again,

although likely not as strong as the current system. Offshore flow

will continue through the end of the week. 33

 

&&

 

.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days.

 

&&

 

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...Gale Warning until midnight PST tonight for Admiralty Inlet Area-

Bremerton and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-San Juan County-

Seattle and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-Western Skagit County-

Western Whatcom County.

 

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Tuesday

night for Admiralty Inlet Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-

Bremerton and Vicinity-Central Coast-East Puget Sound

Lowlands-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Everett and

Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North

Coast-San Juan County-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest

Interior-Tacoma Area-Western Skagit County-Western Strait

of Juan De Fuca-Western Whatcom County.

 

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Tuesday

night for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of

Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit

Counties.

 

High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for San Juan County-

Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County.

 

Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for North Coast-Western

Strait of Juan De Fuca.

 

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday evening

for Olympics.

 

Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Eastern

Strait of Juan de Fuca.

 

PZ...Gale Warning until 2 AM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet-Central

U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape

Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From

Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From

James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters

From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal

Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-

Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out

10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-

Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait

Of Juan De Fuca.

 

High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Northern Inland

Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

 

Gale Warning until 11 AM PST Sunday for Northern Inland Waters

Including The San Juan Islands.

 

&&

 

 

 

 

www.weather.gov/seattle

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Let's get everyone nailed this time!

 

EURO seemed to trend in that direction!

 

The Dalles is getting hit pretty nicely.

 

Good news, perhaps the wraparound band will make things fun later on.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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The temp has already dropped back to 30 here.  Going to be really cold tonight.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

The local area looks to see a brief break in precip Wednesday

before the potential for yet another system, possibly wintry,

Thursday into Friday. Moisture could then linger through the

weekend. Still no real promising sign of a pattern change in the

next 2 weeks. This is my first winter in western Washington-does

Spring exist here?

 

Kovacik

 

Tim, you must inform this guy that Spring not only exists, it takes up half the year.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Snow continues in McMinnville. Sitting at 32f. Approaching 1 inch.

 

That's great, looks like the showers are intensifying a bit on radar. Washington County and Yamhill got pretty snubbed yesterday, you guys deserve the snow.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Tim, you must inform this guy that Spring not only exists, it takes up half the year.

 

It usually does.   Just taking a break this month.     :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Why?

 

It looks like it may have shifted the Mon/Tue system south a bit.

 

Could it actually start trending south decently close to the event?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Even if snow doesn't fall in PDX Monday-Tuesday, the front and dynamics at play are very interesting and I wouldn't (in my amateur weather-fan knowledge) be surprised to see some areas in the PDX metro get a few inches.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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OMG, if Monday night's system goes south of PDX I am going to die!!!!   Let's hope this southern move becomes a trend.

 

The EURO's southerly move is very interesting, to say the least. Anyways, at the very least we can expect a dynamic storm with crazy foothill snow.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Small bit of record keeping now that the Fraser outflow gradient is decreasing. Looks like it peaked at around -26mb this morning, which is right about where the forecasts were putting it earlier in the week.

 

There's a 4-hour gap in the data, but by then pressure was already steadily rising at BLI.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KBLI+CYWL

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OMG, if Monday night's system goes south of PDX I am going to die!!!!   Let's hope this southern move becomes a trend.

 

 

Its not going south of Portland.    It might go north of Seattle.   Does not really matter too much though up here at least... its cold on both sides of the low.  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_6.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Its not going south of Portland.    It might go north of Seattle.   Does not really matter too much though up here at least... its cold on both sides of the low.  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_6.png

 

18Z EURO trended south, let us have our fun and at least hang on to a little hope, you get your snow either way /:

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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For those that missed this from the other thread...latest Euro looks a lot more promising for Portland.

 

attachicon.gifpost-164-0-25610500-1549759021.png

 

Wow!  Tons more snow for this area too.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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For those that missed this from the other thread...latest Euro looks a lot more promising for Portland.

 

attachicon.gifpost-164-0-25610500-1549759021.png

 

 

Anyone have any explanation of what changed here? The low simply further south? Photoshop?

 

Doesn't seem very believable given all the model trends to the north.  

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Incredible evening out there.  Clear skies and deep snow cover giving everything a blueish cast.  Looks cold!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Anyone have any explanation of what changed here? The low simply further south? Photoshop?

 

Doesn't seem very believable given all the model trends to the north.  

 

 

12Z run showed this through Tuesday afternoon... 

 

ecmwf-tsnow-washington-15.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z run showed this through Tuesday afternoon... 

 

ecmwf-tsnow-washington-15.png

 

Interesting. No obvious indication that it went that much further south on the 18z if at all except quite a bit more snow for PDX. It is a pretty map but it is impossible for such a large section of the PDX metro to get even half that amount with a south wind. I would discount the totals down here entirely except for select areas. This is 7-10 inches for PDX in the same sprint as last night being a widespread 3-5 inches (as per euro runs before yesterdays event). It will be lots of cold rain or non-sticking wet snow sadly. 

 

IMO the only way this can be different is if the low goes much further south. 

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Interesting. No obvious indication that it went that much further south on the 18z if at all except quite a bit more snow for PDX. It is a pretty map but it is impossible for such a large section of the PDX metro to get even half that amount with a south wind. I would discount the totals down here entirely except for select areas. This is 7-10 inches for PDX in the same sprint as last night being a widespread 3-5 inches (as per euro runs before yesterdays event). It will be lots of cold rain or non-sticking wet snow sadly. 

 

IMO the only way this can be different is if the low goes much further south. 

 

Could this be decent for the West Hills/Mt. Tabor/Coucil Crest/Chehalem Mountain (anywhere above 500 ft) even in the metro area? Maybe an inch or two of snow?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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