February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

[TT-SEA]

Low is not going south of Portland.   

 

00Z NAM...

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Low is not going south of Portland.

 

00Z NAM...

 

Also shows a snow shadow for the sound

[Esquimalt]

Hmmm the NAM wants to stall tomorrow evenings low in the puget sound at 1002 mb....

[TT-SEA]

Also shows a snow shadow for the sound

ECMWF showed that as well.

[Front Ranger]

Low is not going south of Portland.

 

00Z NAM...

 

Wrong low.

[Perturbed Member]

Low is not going south of Portland.   

 

00Z NAM...

 

 

The models have made the trends quite clear. Agree, it will not go south of Portland and that is why that 18z ECMWF snowmap will be completely wrong for here. 

[TT-SEA]

You can clearly see the warm front developing quickly on Monday morning...

 

[Requiem]

Low is not going south of Portland.   

 

00Z NAM...

 

 

Booooooo!

 

(but thank you for all your hard work with these maps lately, even though they have been quite a rollercoaster ride. You've put a lot of time into this one, enjoy the snow!)

[Front Ranger]

The models have made the trends quite clear. Agree, it will not go south of Portland and that is why that 18z ECMWF snowmap will be completely wrong for here.

The 18z Euro increased snowfall from the second low.

[seattleweatherguy]

ECMWF showed that as well.

I'm trying to learn here but what's causing the snow shadow?

[Perturbed Member]

Could this be decent for the West Hills/Mt. Tabor/Coucil Crest/Chehalem Mountain (anywhere above 500 ft) even in the metro area? Maybe an inch or two of snow?

 

I could see places at a 1000ft or maybe lower getting some initial accumulations but the SW flow will eventually raise the snow level to 3000ft for at least some time if we are to believe the 18z GFS. GFS has 925mb temps going above freezing for a considerable period. 

[GHweatherChris]

Monday system has a little flavor of 12/20/2008 to it. Heavy snow, possible warming like in 2008, but in 2008 it went from snow to freezing rain, back to snow and cold. I remember it clearly as I drove up to Seattle on 12/20 while it was dumping for the Seahawks game the next day against the Jets.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

At least we were able to get some slightly below normal temps in the south valley. Would like to add to the humongous 0.2” that Springfield has had so far but I have my doubts.

 

Never move to the south valley if you like snow.

[Jesse]

Low is not going south of Portland.

 

00Z NAM...

 

Glad you found a mission. Been a few days!

[Requiem]

Monday system has a little flavor of 12/20/2008 to it. Heavy snow, possible warming like in 2008, but in 2008 it went from snow to freezing rain, back to snow and cold. I remember it clearly as I drove up to Seattle on 12/20 while it was dumping for the Seahawks game the next day against the Jets.

 

12/20/2008 was absolutely beautiful for Portland too, and was far more region-wide. This is a Puget Sound special (and SW Washington too, I guess).

[GHweatherChris]

12/20/2008 was absolutely beautiful for Portland too, and was far more region-wide. This is a Puget Sound special (and SW Washington too, I guess).

I was only speaking for my area.

[Cloud]

I'm trying to learn here but what's causing the snow shadow?

Olympics. Much like traditional rain storms around here with their trajectory shadowing Sequim. 

Based on that trajectory of the low that was shown, the sound would be shadowed.

[Requiem]

I was only speaking for my area.

 

Sorry, this one still stings. Yeah, for your area it'll probably be good. Do you get freezing rain often out there?

[GHweatherChris]

Sorry, this one still stings. Yeah, for your area it'll probably be good. Do you get freezing rain often out there?

Only in these borderline setups and usually just briefly, thats why I said it only had a little 2008 flair to it, it's nowhere near exact but the feel of the situation is similar.

[mtep]

Hoping this next system pulls through for Whatcom Co! It's still cold as here in Bham and plenty of ice and snow from last week caked on some surfaces. Another couple inches would be great. I was up at Mount Baker this afternoon and it wasn't nearly as gusty as it was in town. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just had the offshore flow finally kick in! Winds kicked out of the north about 20mph with a heavy snow shower. Picked up another 1.8" of snow in about 45 minutes. Up to 7.8" total with this event. 5.3" since midnight. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12/20/2008 was absolutely beautiful for Portland too, and was far more region-wide. This is a Puget Sound special (and SW Washington too, I guess).

Only place that missed out on that was EUG.

[runninthruda206]

Another beautiful snowy evening on the ranch.

 

wowow. beautiful

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a band of snow is developing in Central Marion County on a Silverton/Keizer line. 

[umadbro]

I see the 18z euro is as drunk as the 18z gfs for valley snow the next couple of days. I'd be shocked if any significant snow fell south of Battle Ground. 2 inches tops before the week long 37 degree rain.

[GHweatherChris]

I think some are putting a little emphasis, imagined or not - that the warm nose on this will be a bit much.

Agreed, but there is alot of variables in place which will cause anxiety for some, I am currently very pleased with things, anymore fun will be a bonus for my particular locale at this point. Still gonna root for the frozen precip!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

NAM so far looking pretty similar to the RGEM with the low placement. Good news for us south islanders

 

It's about as perfect a track as we could hope for with such a system. It's small though so tiny shifts could have a big impact on snowfall. That said, this looks like a more traditional snow maker in this area than what happened on Friday (the low coming ashore rather than racing offshore). I'm also feeling pretty optimistic about the Monday system. Those north moving warm front/overrunners almost always bring a good snowfall here. That one could easily produce 4-6" and has way more room for error. The difference is that this time there likely won't a major warmup/changeover once it passes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I-5 turning white in North Salem per cams.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Confirmed with my Dad he's getting sticking snow down in Silverton now. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM agrees well with the 12Z ECMWF through Tuesday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Go 18z EURO.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00Z NAM agrees well with the 12Z ECMWF through Tuesday.

 

Northern areas certainly gain some ground on this one:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like heavy snow falling in North Salem and Keizer now per cams. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah driving south thru Salem was def starting to get snowy. Boring in the s valley as usual now.

[Esquimalt]

00z 3km NAM is a VI and Whatcom special for tomorrow night's system.

 

By 7AM Monday...

Victoria still gets screwed over on this one lol

[Silverfin]

00z 3km NAM is a VI and Whatcom special for tomorrow night's system.

 

By 7AM Monday...

 

I'll have the Whatcom special please.

[Perturbed Member]

Anyone have any predictions on what the deformation band up north will do? 12z euro had it making it down here but the HRRR and NAM took it away. Band is still there and seems to be rotating slowly SW. We'll see if it survives.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My Dad says its stopped at his house for now He got 1", completely covered even the roads. He said he had to go into Silverton and it looked like 2"+ there. 

[Perturbed Member]

My Dad says its stopped at his house for now He got 1", completely covered even the roads. He said he had to go into Silverton and it looked like 2"+ there. 

 

Is he low elevation or on some kind of a hill?

[Timmy]

I wonder if it’s snowing silverton?