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February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

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#51
hawkstwelve

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:14 PM

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More context for Portlanders and that 18z Euro run.

 

3 maps below each centered at 10AM Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday respectively.

 

By 10AM Tuesday, the snow has ended down there. Hard to tell due to limited available maps if that's because it changes over to rain or precip dries up. PDX temps at 10AM Tuesday are in the mid 30s.

 

r6LKREP.png

 

pCvojBL.png

 

dvYhcgF.png


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#52
Front Ranger

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:14 PM

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The models have made the trends quite clear. Agree, it will not go south of Portland and that is why that 18z ECMWF snowmap will be completely wrong for here.


The 18z Euro increased snowfall from the second low.
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It's just the internet. Don't take it personal.


#53
seattleweatherguy

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:15 PM

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ECMWF showed that as well.


I'm trying to learn here but what's causing the snow shadow?

#54
nwsnow

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:16 PM

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Could this be decent for the West Hills/Mt. Tabor/Coucil Crest/Chehalem Mountain (anywhere above 500 ft) even in the metro area? Maybe an inch or two of snow?

 

I could see places at a 1000ft or maybe lower getting some initial accumulations but the SW flow will eventually raise the snow level to 3000ft for at least some time if we are to believe the 18z GFS. GFS has 925mb temps going above freezing for a considerable period. 


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#55
GHweatherChris

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:16 PM

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Monday system has a little flavor of 12/20/2008 to it. Heavy snow, possible warming like in 2008, but in 2008 it went from snow to freezing rain, back to snow and cold. I remember it clearly as I drove up to Seattle on 12/20 while it was dumping for the Seahawks game the next day against the Jets.
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#56
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:17 PM

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At least we were able to get some slightly below normal temps in the south valley. Would like to add to the humongous 0.2” that Springfield has had so far but I have my doubts.

Never move to the south valley if you like snow.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#57
Jesse

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:18 PM

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Low is not going south of Portland.

00Z NAM...

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_29.png


Glad you found a mission. Been a few days!
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#58
hawkstwelve

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:19 PM

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Another beautiful snowy evening on the ranch.

 

U1tunK9.jpg


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#59
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:20 PM

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Monday system has a little flavor of 12/20/2008 to it. Heavy snow, possible warming like in 2008, but in 2008 it went from snow to freezing rain, back to snow and cold. I remember it clearly as I drove up to Seattle on 12/20 while it was dumping for the Seahawks game the next day against the Jets.

 

12/20/2008 was absolutely beautiful for Portland too, and was far more region-wide. This is a Puget Sound special (and SW Washington too, I guess).



#60
GHweatherChris

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:22 PM

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12/20/2008 was absolutely beautiful for Portland too, and was far more region-wide. This is a Puget Sound special (and SW Washington too, I guess).


I was only speaking for my area.

#61
Cloud

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:23 PM

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I'm trying to learn here but what's causing the snow shadow?

Olympics. Much like traditional rain storms around here with their trajectory shadowing Sequim. 

Based on that trajectory of the low that was shown, the sound would be shadowed.



#62
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:23 PM

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I was only speaking for my area.

 

Sorry, this one still stings. Yeah, for your area it'll probably be good. Do you get freezing rain often out there?



#63
GHweatherChris

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:25 PM

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Sorry, this one still stings. Yeah, for your area it'll probably be good. Do you get freezing rain often out there?


Only in these borderline setups and usually just briefly, thats why I said it only had a little 2008 flair to it, it's nowhere near exact but the feel of the situation is similar.
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#64
mtep

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:26 PM

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Hoping this next system pulls through for Whatcom Co! It's still cold as s**t here in Bham and plenty of ice and snow from last week caked on some surfaces. Another couple inches would be great. I was up at Mount Baker this afternoon and it wasn't nearly as gusty as it was in town. 


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#65
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:27 PM

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Just had the offshore flow finally kick in! Winds kicked out of the north about 20mph with a heavy snow shower. Picked up another 1.8" of snow in about 45 minutes. Up to 7.8" total with this event. 5.3" since midnight. 


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Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#66
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:29 PM

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12/20/2008 was absolutely beautiful for Portland too, and was far more region-wide. This is a Puget Sound special (and SW Washington too, I guess).


Only place that missed out on that was EUG.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#67
iFred

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:30 PM

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Monday system has a little flavor of 12/20/2008 to it. Heavy snow, possible warming like in 2008, but in 2008 it went from snow to freezing rain, back to snow and cold. I remember it clearly as I drove up to Seattle on 12/20 while it was dumping for the Seahawks game the next day against the Jets.

 

I think some are putting a little emphasis, imagined or not - that the warm nose on this will be a bit much. 



#68
runninthruda206

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:32 PM

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Another beautiful snowy evening on the ranch.

 

U1tunK9.jpg

wowow. beautiful



#69
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:32 PM

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Looks like a band of snow is developing in Central Marion County on a Silverton/Keizer line. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#70
umadbro

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:33 PM

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I see the 18z euro is as drunk as the 18z gfs for valley snow the next couple of days. I'd be shocked if any significant snow fell south of Battle Ground. 2 inches tops before the week long 37 degree rain.
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KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#71
GHweatherChris

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:34 PM

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I think some are putting a little emphasis, imagined or not - that the warm nose on this will be a bit much.


Agreed, but there is alot of variables in place which will cause anxiety for some, I am currently very pleased with things, anymore fun will be a bonus for my particular locale at this point. Still gonna root for the frozen precip!!

#72
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:34 PM

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NAM so far looking pretty similar to the RGEM with the low placement. Good news for us south islanders :)

 

It's about as perfect a track as we could hope for with such a system. It's small though so tiny shifts could have a big impact on snowfall. That said, this looks like a more traditional snow maker in this area than what happened on Friday (the low coming ashore rather than racing offshore). I'm also feeling pretty optimistic about the Monday system. Those north moving warm front/overrunners almost always bring a good snowfall here. That one could easily produce 4-6" and has way more room for error. The difference is that this time there likely won't a major warmup/changeover once it passes.


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#73
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:36 PM

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I-5 turning white in North Salem per cams.


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Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#74
hawkstwelve

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:39 PM

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00z 3km NAM is a VI and Whatcom special for tomorrow night's system.

By 7AM Monday...

Attached Files


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#75
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:41 PM

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Confirmed with my Dad he's getting sticking snow down in Silverton now. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#76
TT-SEA

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:42 PM

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00Z NAM agrees well with the 12Z ECMWF through Tuesday.

#77
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:47 PM

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Go 18z EURO.


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Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#78
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:48 PM

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00Z NAM agrees well with the 12Z ECMWF through Tuesday.

 

Northern areas certainly gain some ground on this one:

 

nam3km_asnow_nwus_57.png



#79
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:48 PM

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Looks like heavy snow falling in North Salem and Keizer now per cams. 


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Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#80
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:48 PM

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Yeah driving south thru Salem was def starting to get snowy. Boring in the s valley as usual now.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#81
Esquimalt

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:56 PM

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00z 3km NAM is a VI and Whatcom special for tomorrow night's system.

By 7AM Monday...


Victoria still gets screwed over on this one lol

#82
Silverfin

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:57 PM

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00z 3km NAM is a VI and Whatcom special for tomorrow night's system.

By 7AM Monday...

 

I'll have the Whatcom special please.


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#83
nwsnow

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:58 PM

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Anyone have any predictions on what the deformation band up north will do? 12z euro had it making it down here but the HRRR and NAM took it away. Band is still there and seems to be rotating slowly SW. We'll see if it survives.



#84
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:58 PM

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My Dad says its stopped at his house for now He got 1", completely covered even the roads. He said he had to go into Silverton and it looked like 2"+ there. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#85
nwsnow

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:01 PM

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My Dad says its stopped at his house for now He got 1", completely covered even the roads. He said he had to go into Silverton and it looked like 2"+ there. 

 

Is he low elevation or on some kind of a hill?



#86
Timmy

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:02 PM

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I wonder if it’s snowing silverton?

#87
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:03 PM

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The 0z RGEM continues to look good for the south island - Bellingham - Vancouver tomorrow. It hasn't changed much between runs. The GFS seems to be the primary holdout in taking things further north, though it shifted a little in recent runs. Will be interesting to see what the 0z shows.


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#88
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:05 PM

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Radar pic of the snow band setting up across Marion County right now. I believe its being caused by low level convergence associated with the shift to offshore flow. 

 

52020639_10216745124572188_8203012627664


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#89
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:06 PM

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Is he low elevation or on some kind of a hill?

 

Valley floor. Which is about 200' down here. 


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Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#90
Skagit Weather

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:07 PM

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Oh good. Now the snow looks like it will miss to the north...

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"

Snowfall Totals
2008-09: 30" | 2009-10: 0.5" | 2010-11: 21" | 2011-12: 9.5" | 2012-13: 0.2" | 2013-14: 6.2" | 2014-15: 0.0" | 2015-16: 0.25"| 2016-17: 8.0" | 2017-18: 0.9"

2018-19: 11"

[0.25" (2/3), 2.75" (2/4), 2.5" (2/8), 1.25" (2/10), 4" (2/11), 0.25" (2/11)]


#91
Esquimalt

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:07 PM

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The 0z RGEM continues to look good for the south island - Bellingham - Vancouver tomorrow. It hasn't changed much between runs.


It almost looks like rain in a portion of town though. What do you think?

#92
MossMan

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:07 PM

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Got the family in the truck and headed to the lake house (Lake Goodwin in Stanwood) to check things out and then a stop at the store on the way back (was a ghost town, perfect time to shop) Our lake house faces the north, there was snow piled up on the sliding glass door! And my boat is still hibernating. Saw some vehicle casualties on the drive to the lake as well.

Attached Files


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#93
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:10 PM

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Really strong east winds here in the West Hills. Wow.



#94
El_Nina

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:15 PM

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Really strong east winds here in the West Hills. Wow.


At least you get to smell the snow from my house ;)
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#95
hawkstwelve

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:15 PM

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Radar pic of the snow band setting up across Marion County right now. I believe its being caused by low level convergence associated with the shift to offshore flow. 
 
52020639_10216745124572188_8203012627664


What radar site is that? It looks similar to the one DJ uses on Fb.

#96
MossMan

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:15 PM

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Before we could head to the lake I had to borrow the neighbors tractor to make my steep driveway usable again!
Temp dropping rapidly, down to 23.9 already.

Attached Files


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#97
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:16 PM

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At least you get to smell the snow from my house ;)

 

Still about 2-3 inches on the ground here, but it's all frozen and super icy /:


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#98
Prairiedog

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:16 PM

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Why?

 

It looks like it may have shifted the Mon/Tue system south a bit.

At the moment I would agree with Timmy in that that snow amount doesn't seem to fit the narrative being laid out.  There won't be a supply of gorge outflow as I see it.  Temps will be just warm enough for the valley floor to NOT see accumulating snow.  Much like most areas today.  That low would have to track at least to the mouth of the Columbia.  That would be a big shift in the models.  Could happen I suppose.  Even a hint of southerlies will be the kiss of death for areas at the valley floor even just south of the metro, south metro south.  Look what the southerlies did for most areas overnight. 

It could be close to greatness but right now I see it as a lot of cold rain going into Monday below maybe 1K.  These snow maps have been pretty consistent though and has made it very confusing. I'm talking about them being opposed to the GFS mostly.   The Euro snow maps are in opposition to the GFS low staying north.  There may be enough cold air initially Sunday for it to be all snow but without a gorge outflow, I can't see it sustaining all snow going forward.  If the low does indeed shift far enough south, all bets are back on for something good locally.  Without gorge outflow, I can't see snow being sustainable.


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#99
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:17 PM

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It almost looks like rain in a portion of town though. What do you think?

 

Same as before. It's currently 29F here with a 10F dewpoint, the low is forming out of a pocket of very cold upper level air, and this event begins within 24 hours from now. Rain is the least of our concerns, if we get missed tomorrow it will because it tracked too far north or south of us and we missed the heavy narrow band of precip. This is not an atmosphere that produces rain in this area:

 

rgem_T850_nwus_24.png



#100
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:19 PM

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At the moment I would agree with Timmy in that that snow amount doesn't seem to fit the narrative being laid out.  There won't be a supply of gorge outflow as I see it.  Temps will be just warm enough for the valley floor to NOT see accumulating snow.  Much like most areas today.  That low would have to track at least to the mouth of the Columbia.  That would be a big shift in the models.  Could happen I suppose.  Even a hint of southerlies will be the kiss of death for areas at the valley floor even just south of the metro, south metro south.  Look what the southerlies did for most areas overnight. 

It could be close to greatness but right now I see it as a lot of cold rain going into Monday below maybe 1K.  These snow maps have been pretty consistent though and has made it very confusing. I'm talking about them being opposed to the GFS mostly.   The Euro snow maps are in opposition to the GFS low staying north.  There may be enough cold air initially Sunday for it to be all snow but without a gorge outflow, I can't see it sustaining all snow going forward.  If the low does indeed shift far enough south, all bets are back on for something good locally.  Without gorge outflow, I can't see snow being sustainable.

 

The gorge outflow is still really strong here, then again, I don't get out much, so....