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February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

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#101
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:20 PM

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Light snow falling again this evening on the Southern Oregon coast at Coos Bay. 

 

18z EURO looked good. Very encouraging. Nice to see this snow band go over the valley. Seems to be expanding as it moves north and west. 

 

South wind is completely dead in the valley now and the flow is offshore down to EUG. DP's already into the teens in the PDX metro area. If the winds slack off anywhere tonight there could be some very cold lows.


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Snowfall

2018-19: 30.9"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#102
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:21 PM

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Light snow falling again this evening on the Southern Oregon coast at Coos Bay. 

 

18z EURO looked good. Very encouraging. Nice to see this snow band go over the valley. Seems to be expanding as it moves north and west. 

 

South wind is completely dead in the valley now and the flow is offshore down to EUG. DP's already into the teens in the PDX metro area. If the winds slack off anywhere tonight there could be some very cold lows.

 

Is it moving N towards Washington County? I really want them to get some snow.



#103
hawkstwelve

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:21 PM

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Pretty rare to see snow on each day of the 7-day forecast.

Even rarer to see a WSW extend over three days.

Attached Files


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#104
Tyler Mode

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:23 PM

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Time lapse video starting at 7 PM last night until 7 PM tonight. You can clearly see the initial snow, the melting, some creepy crawlers and then more snow...

 


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#105
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:24 PM

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Pretty rare to see snow on each day of the 7-day forecast.

Even rarer to see a WSW extend over three days.

 

So cool :/

 

No school for like, two weeks. I'd love it.



#106
epiceast

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:25 PM

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Northern areas certainly gain some ground on this one:

 

nam3km_asnow_nwus_57.png

One thing I don't get is why there is a persistent purple line across the lowlands east of cascades on all of these storms. And this is not Kuchera, this 10:1 ratios! I think this might be a really unprecedent amount of snow for some of these valleys, like surpassing late 1800's for puget sound in terms of rareness.



#107
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:28 PM

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Mark just put the final nail in the coffin for PDX. Maybe another time.


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#108
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:28 PM

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The 0z ICON is also on board for a larger event in northern areas tomorrow evening:

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_9.png


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#109
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:29 PM

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For those that missed this from the other thread...latest Euro looks a lot more promising for Portland.

post-164-0-25610500-1549759021.png


This has the look of a classic warm tongue signature. With the lower snow totals along the Cascade foothills.

#110
TT-SEA

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:30 PM

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So cool :/

 

No school for like, two weeks. I'd love it.

 

 

Until you are in school until the 4th of July.



#111
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:30 PM

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This has the look of a classic warm tongue signature. With the lower snow totals along the Cascade foothills.

 

Probably an outlier...



#112
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:31 PM

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Until you are in school until the 4th of July.

 

Well, at least they get to experience a ton of snow, so...



#113
Prairiedog

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:36 PM

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The gorge outflow is still really strong here, then again, I don't get out much, so....

I'm talking Sunday night into Monday and the upcoming next low.


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#114
epiceast

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:36 PM

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I think another 2" for most of PDX will happen tonight. Deformation band is consolidating north of Portland and goes East all the way to Pendleton Radar technicians. Second lobe of surface low is forming over SE Oregon and will rotate that band with strength over Oregon if it follows the projected path towards Pullman...


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#115
Jesse

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:36 PM

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Well, at least they get to experience a ton of snow, so...


Someday you will be an ADULT and not care about such silly, trivial things as snow and weather. Because you will know what REAL PROBLEMS are. I say this as one of the couple dozen grown a** adults who spends an inordinate amount of time on this forum obsessing over snow and other kinds of weather, with zero sense of irony whatsoever. ;)
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#116
Deweydog

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:38 PM

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I think another 2" for most of PDX will happen tonight. Deformation band is consolidating north of Portland and goes East all the way to Pendleton Radar technicians. Second lobe of surface low is forming over SE Oregon and will rotate that band with strength over Oregon if it follows the projected path towards Pullman...


Downslope. Air is too dry. No go.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#117
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:39 PM

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I think another 2" for most of PDX will happen tonight. Deformation band is consolidating north of Portland and goes East all the way to Pendleton Radar technicians. Second lobe of surface low is forming over SE Oregon and will rotate that band with strength over Oregon if it follows the projected path towards Pullman...

 

Hmmm, I'm intrigued...



#118
TT-SEA

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:39 PM

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Someday you will be an ADULT and not care about such silly, trivial things as snow and weather. Because you will know what REAL PROBLEMS are. I say this as one of the couple dozen grown a** adults who spends an inordinate amount of time on this forum obsessing over snow and other kinds of weather, with zero irony whatsoever. ;)

 

 

Its all fun and games until you are sweating it out in a school with no air conditioning in early July in the middle of another hot summer.    ;)

 

Experiencing lots of snow is fine... but it does start to become seriously disruptive when it goes on and on.   Nothing you can do about it of course.   But it does start to make it more stressful and you look forward to when life can return to normal.   As Matt can tell you from January 2017!  



#119
Esquimalt

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:39 PM

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Same as before. It's currently 29F here with a 10F dewpoint, the low is forming out of a pocket of very cold upper level air, and this event begins within 24 hours from now. Rain is the least of our concerns, if we get missed tomorrow it will because it tracked too far north or south of us and we missed the heavy narrow band of precip. This is not an atmosphere that produces rain in this area:
 
rgem_T850_nwus_24.png


I agree, was just reading what the model said. According to spot wx much of the city only gets 8.5 cm from that one. Looking at the qpf I would expect higher. What are your thoughts?

#120
Jesse

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:39 PM

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Marks latest post is definitely kind of a downer.
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#121
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:41 PM

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Marks latest post is definitely kind of a downer.

 

Tell me about it. How do we go from "potentially historic" (Mark's own words) to this in a day?


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#122
Jesse

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:42 PM

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Tell me about it. How do we go from "potentially historic" (Mark's own words) to this in a day?


A 100 mile change in the track of some lows, caused mostly by Tim.
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#123
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:43 PM

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A 100 mile change in the track of some lows, caused mostly by Tim.

 

At least we'll have lots of negative temp departures!


Snowfall

2018-19: 30.9"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#124
Deweydog

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:43 PM

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Tell me about it. How do we go from "potentially historic" (Mark's own words) to this in a day?


I’m starting to get the feeling snow setups in the PNW lowlands are precarious. Can anyone else confirm?
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#125
TT-SEA

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:44 PM

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A 100 mile change in the track of some lows, caused mostly by Tim.


Sorry about that. I was actually really happy with the ECMWF scenario of few days ago that took all the activity south from Sunday-Wednesday and allowed the possibility of schools being opened up here.

#126
Deweydog

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:45 PM

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Starting to get wonder if PDX even makes it below 30 by midnight. Deeper cold but not colder cold...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#127
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:46 PM

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I agree, was just reading what the model said. According to spot wx much of the city only gets 8.5 cm from that one. Looking at the qpf I would expect higher. What are your thoughts?

 

The 0z GFS looks mostly on board now, still seems a bit south of the other models but it might not have much of an impact for Victoria. This isn't an easy one to predict, I expect there will be a narrow band capable of producing upwards of 20cm somewhere. The 5-10cm range is probably a safe bet for here, but far from certain.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_4.png



#128
Timmy

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:46 PM

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At least we'll have lots of negative temp departures!

this is one the of most confusing posts of the winter. Jesse loves his departures but he definitely has been more of a snow kick lately. Meanwhile Andrew has be touting departures while 75% of the metro is getting screwed on snow. I’m confused.
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#129
epiceast

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:46 PM

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Downslope. Air is too dry. No go.

Needs to start snowing in Longview, very possible as long as there is enough north or northwest wind at various elevations to provide enough lift to overcome the downslope effects. Happened with the much weaker zone of the first system a week ago.



#130
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:48 PM

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Oregon Cascades are about to get absolutely pounded with snow this week.


Snowfall

2018-19: 30.9"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#131
TT-SEA

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:48 PM

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00Z GFS does not show a crippling snowstorm for Seattle on Monday night into Tuesday. Cliff Mass is saying this now. There is snow... but the system tomorrow night looks more snowy.

#132
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:49 PM

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this is one the of most confusing posts of the winter. Jesse loves his departures but he definitely has been more of a snow kick lately. Meanwhile Andrew has be touting departures while 75% of the metro is getting screwed on snow. I’m confused.

 

I'm trying to be positive and give people a silver lining to grasp on to. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 30.9"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#133
Deweydog

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:49 PM

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Needs to start snowing in Longview, very possible as long as there is enough north or northwest wind at various elevations to provide enough lift to overcome the downslope effects. Happened with the much weaker zone of the first system a week ago.


Last week didn’t have this deep of an anti-cyclonic flow. There’s a lot more sinking air with this guy.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#134
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:50 PM

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I'm trying to be positive and give people a silver lining to grasp on to. 

 

I dunno, cold's just unpleasant without some sort of wintry precipitation to spice things up. It's a week of 34 degree rain.



#135
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:50 PM

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Here is another silver lining. Probably 3-5' of snow above 3000' in the Oregon Cascades.

 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_12.png


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Snowfall

2018-19: 30.9"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#136
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:50 PM

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Tell me about it. How do we go from "potentially historic" (Mark's own words) to this in a day?


If the 12z EURO is correct, we'll have another good chance of snow here in PDX Metro starting in about a week. Winter isn't over yet.
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#137
bainbridgekid

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:50 PM

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00z GFS increased moisture overall for the first system and has a nice CZ signature over the North Sound tomorrow night with what looks like fairly widespread 3-5" amounts over North King and much of Snohomish County.

 

EDIT: Here is the snow map through Sunday night:

 

Attached File  gfs_2019-02-10-00Z_036_49.111_235.267_46.389_238.933_Snowfall_36_highways_cities.png   112.34KB   0 downloads

 

 

 

 


2018-19 snowfall:

 

Feb. 3rd-4th: 8"

Feb. 8th-9th: 6"

Feb. 10th: 3"

Feb. 11th-12th: 6"

 

 

Total: 23"

 

 


#138
Deweydog

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:51 PM

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I dunno, cold's just unpleasant without some sort of wintry precipitation to spice things up. It's a week of 34 degree rain.


It’ll be warmer than that at times.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#139
ShawniganLake

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:51 PM

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Pretty good looking

Attached File  90595E0F-E65A-4D95-9E1A-D8BF92565C53.png   442.66KB   17 downloads
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#140
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:51 PM

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It’ll be warmer than that at times.

 

Sub 45 degree rain, then. That might just be worse.



#141
Jesse

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:54 PM

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I dunno, cold's just unpleasant without some sort of wintry precipitation to spice things up. It's a week of 34 degree rain.


Welp, you just lost my support.

#142
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:54 PM

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3 weeks ago we would have killed for an opportunity like the Sunday-Wednesday period for NW Oregon...Snow levels near Sea Level again Tuesday night.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_14.png


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Snowfall

2018-19: 30.9"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#143
Esquimalt

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:55 PM

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The 0z GFS looks mostly on board now, still seems a bit south of the other models but it might not have much of an impact for Victoria. This isn't an easy one to predict, I expect there will be a narrow band capable of producing upwards of 20cm somewhere. The 5-10cm range is probably a safe bet for here, but far from certain.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_4.png


I agree. But I do want the euro on board tonight. The past couple of events a bunch of models were showing gorgeous eye candy up until the day of the storm and nothing really happened (meanwhile the euro showed much more realistic totals)

#144
Bryant

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:55 PM

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Pretty good looking

90595E0F-E65A-4D95-9E1A-D8BF92565C53.png


❤🤞
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#145
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:56 PM

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Welp, you just lost my support.

 

Perhaps I should have clarified- cold that isn't historic (or below 25 degrees) is just unpleasant. It's like nothing worthwhile is happening.



#146
Deweydog

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:57 PM

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Can’t you just let Bryant just have a LITTLE, Tim?

The life you save may be your own.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#147
kokaneekidz

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:58 PM

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You should fire up the boat and go waterskiing. Just be sure to steer clear of any icing...

Got the family in the truck and headed to the lake house (Lake Goodwin in Stanwood) to check things out and then a stop at the store on the way back (was a ghost town, perfect time to shop) Our lake house faces the north, there was snow piled up on the sliding glass door! And my boat is still hibernating. Saw some vehicle casualties on the drive to the lake as well.


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#148
Jesse

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:59 PM

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Perhaps I should have clarified- cold that isn't historic (or below 25 degrees) is just unpleasant. It's like nothing worthwhile is happening.


Still gone. ;)
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#149
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:59 PM

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00Z GFS does not show a crippling snowstorm for Seattle on Monday night into Tuesday. Cliff Mass is saying this now. There is snow... but the system tomorrow night looks more snowy.

It shows 18hrs of steady snow starting monday night.
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We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#150
Esquimalt

Posted 09 February 2019 - 07:59 PM

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Pretty good looking

attachicon.gif90595E0F-E65A-4D95-9E1A-D8BF92565C53.png


Nice! When does most of that fall? Monday night?