Jump to content

February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV


Geos

Recommended Posts

Downslope. Air is too dry. No go.

Needs to start snowing in Longview, very possible as long as there is enough north or northwest wind at various elevations to provide enough lift to overcome the downslope effects. Happened with the much weaker zone of the first system a week ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oregon Cascades are about to get absolutely pounded with snow this week.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z GFS does not show a crippling snowstorm for Seattle on Monday night into Tuesday. Cliff Mass is saying this now. There is snow... but the system tomorrow night looks more snowy.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

this is one the of most confusing posts of the winter. Jesse loves his departures but he definitely has been more of a snow kick lately. Meanwhile Andrew has be touting departures while 75% of the metro is getting screwed on snow. I’m confused.

 

I'm trying to be positive and give people a silver lining to grasp on to. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Needs to start snowing in Longview, very possible as long as there is enough north or northwest wind at various elevations to provide enough lift to overcome the downslope effects. Happened with the much weaker zone of the first system a week ago.

Last week didn’t have this deep of an anti-cyclonic flow. There’s a lot more sinking air with this guy.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm trying to be positive and give people a silver lining to grasp on to. 

 

I dunno, cold's just unpleasant without some sort of wintry precipitation to spice things up. It's a week of 34 degree rain.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is another silver lining. Probably 3-5' of snow above 3000' in the Oregon Cascades.

 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_12.png

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GFS increased moisture overall for the first system and has a nice CZ signature over the North Sound tomorrow night with what looks like fairly widespread 3-5" amounts over North King and much of Snohomish County.

 

EDIT: Here is the snow map through Sunday night:

 

gfs_2019-02-10-00Z_036_49.111_235.267_46.389_238.933_Snowfall_36_highways_cities.png

 

 

 

 

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’ll be warmer than that at times.

 

Sub 45 degree rain, then. That might just be worse.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 weeks ago we would have killed for an opportunity like the Sunday-Wednesday period for NW Oregon...Snow levels near Sea Level again Tuesday night.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_14.png

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 0z GFS looks mostly on board now, still seems a bit south of the other models but it might not have much of an impact for Victoria. This isn't an easy one to predict, I expect there will be a narrow band capable of producing upwards of 20cm somewhere. The 5-10cm range is probably a safe bet for here, but far from certain.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_4.png

I agree. But I do want the euro on board tonight. The past couple of events a bunch of models were showing gorgeous eye candy up until the day of the storm and nothing really happened (meanwhile the euro showed much more realistic totals)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Welp, you just lost my support.

 

Perhaps I should have clarified- cold that isn't historic (or below 25 degrees) is just unpleasant. It's like nothing worthwhile is happening.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You should fire up the boat and go waterskiing. Just be sure to steer clear of any icing...

Got the family in the truck and headed to the lake house (Lake Goodwin in Stanwood) to check things out and then a stop at the store on the way back (was a ghost town, perfect time to shop) Our lake house faces the north, there was snow piled up on the sliding glass door! And my boat is still hibernating. Saw some vehicle casualties on the drive to the lake as well.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still gone. ;)

 

Alright, what if I say I like cold without rain? It's the rain part bogging me down, imagining Washingtonians in their warm houses, by the fireplace as a nice blanket of snow falls outside with no work the next day, while we get nasty and cold rain. That's the :( part.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Alright, what if I say I like cold without rain? It's the rain part bogging me down, imagining Washingtonians in their warm houses, by the fireplace as a nice blanket of snow falls outside with no work the next day, while we get nasty and cold rain. That's the :( part.

 

I get it. It's gonna burn. I guess on the bright side we need the rain, though. And it should help mountain snowpack. Also, this pattern doesn't appear like it will be going anywhere. This may not be our last shot.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I get it. It's gonna burn. I guess on the bright side we need the rain, though. And it should help mountain snowpack. Also, this pattern doesn't appear like it will be going anywhere. This may not be our last shot.

 

I'm still holding out a faint sliver of hope for a transition event. 

 

On another note, I doubt kids in Washington will be in school until July, that's ridiculous.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm still holding out a faint sliver of hope for a transition event. 

 

On another note, I doubt kids in Washington will be in school until July, that's ridiculous.

 

If any one is going to squeeze out something unexpected it would be folks with some elevation (like you).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

ICON has troughing pretty much from Tuesday through the end of its run. At hour 180 arctic air surging down the BC coast and we are already in a cool airmass...

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_60.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ICON has troughing pretty much from Tuesday through the end of its run. At hour 180 arctic air surging down the BC coast and we are already in a cool airmass...

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_60.png

Hold on... you mean this cold pattern is not ending tomorrow? Has this been discussed? Is there any reliable long range model from Europe showing this continuing?? :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS seems awfully dry with the thing tomorrow night considering the track and strength of the low.  Amazing how fast the precip from the second system follows the first.  I'm betting most people will stay home on Monday.  Strong potential for big time stuff with the second one.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

this is one the of most confusing posts of the winter. Jesse loves his departures but he definitely has been more of a snow kick lately. Meanwhile Andrew has be touting departures while 75% of the metro is getting screwed on snow. I’m confused.

 

 

You're doing alright in the snow dept right? Is it a huge pain living up on that hill? From a practicality point of view?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS seems awfully dry with the thing tomorrow night considering the track and strength of the low.  Amazing how fast the precip from the second system follows the first.  I'm betting most people will stay homeon Monday.  Strong potential for big time stuff with the second one.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if it overperforms up there.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Highway 22 west of Salem getting dumped on right now...

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/ORE22%20at%20Butler%20HillWB_pid3915.jpg?rand=1549772034909

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...