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2/14-2/17 Possible Winter Storm Train

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#1
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 February 2019 - 10:08 AM

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It's fairly certain that there will be a storm late this week somewhere in the sub. There is still high model variance on this one.

00Z Euro
Attached File  Euro 3.png   194.12KB   0 downloads

12Z GFS
Attached File  GFS.png   242.36KB   1 downloads
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 36.1"             Coldest Low: -8*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#2
jcwxguy

Posted 10 February 2019 - 10:37 AM

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12z euro

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#3
Stacsh

Posted 10 February 2019 - 12:35 PM

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Thursday/Friday system looking better for SMI.
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#4
Clinton

Posted 10 February 2019 - 12:41 PM

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Need to pull the Euro south just a bit.



#5
jcwxguy

Posted 10 February 2019 - 02:15 PM

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18z GFS

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#6
gimmesnow

Posted 10 February 2019 - 03:12 PM

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I'm in the bullseye, but it's the GFS so I'm prepared to receive 0 inches.



#7
jaster220

Posted 10 February 2019 - 03:26 PM

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12z euro

 

Clearly has the heaviest accum's in SMI, not CMI, yet here's my office's take

 

 

ECMWF points
toward 6-8 inches north of I-96. We`ll see how the track of the low evolves over time.

 

Thursday/Friday system looking better for SMI.

 

You should be golden for that one up there. I'll likely be sweating it all week down here.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 47.7"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 8.8 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#8
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 February 2019 - 03:35 PM

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Imo, the GFS solution is way too sloppy. I expect a 989mb system to be more tightly wound than what 18Z GFS showed. I'd expect more of a Euro solution from this.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 36.1"             Coldest Low: -8*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#9
Stacsh

Posted 10 February 2019 - 03:37 PM

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Clearly has the heaviest accum's in SMI, not CMI, yet here's my office's take



You should be golden for that one up there. I'll likely be sweating it all week down here.


Hope so! Stuck at home for two weeks ( just had twin boys!!!). Need to get out of the house and snow blow something!
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#10
Grizzcoat

Posted 10 February 2019 - 04:28 PM

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So it seems DMX thinking tonights' runs will have decent handle on it--- 

 

Thursday-Saturday Winter Weather Potential...

Long range models suggesting yet another winter storms impacting the
Midwest sometime during this timeframe. As anticipated in
yesterday afternoon`s AFD, models are beginning to tighten on a
solution and track... that actually looks somewhat similar to this
current system... only potentially stronger, with a sfc low
possibly dropping to 985mb and a 1030mb sfc high over the
backside. This would intuitively suggest a very strong wind
potential with wintry precip.

Tracing this system back to its source region takes us all the way
to the Gulf of Alaska. By 00z Mon... if this system holds... should
be much more well-defined and off the British Columbia coastline. So
am ultimately expecting an even bigger increase in model handling of
this system with the 00z Mon models... until then not worth getting
into details too much other than to say that this is something that
absolutely bears monitoring.


2018-19 Snowfall- 41.8" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 20.5" JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#11
jaster220

Posted 10 February 2019 - 04:57 PM

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Hope so! Stuck at home for two weeks ( just had twin boys!!!). Need to get out of the house and snow blow something!

 

 

First of all, congrats on the growing fam! Second of all, condolences on your sleep, and related short-term sanity.

 

I was you almost exactly 19 yrs ago as mine were born 2-11-00. In a couple yrs you'll be taking them out in sleds and such. The first 6-12 mos can be rough tho. I felt like my hobby life ceased to exist for a while but it's worth it.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 47.7"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 8.8 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#12
GDR

Posted 10 February 2019 - 05:32 PM

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Hope so! Stuck at home for two weeks ( just had twin boys!!!). Need to get out of the house and snow blow something!

I had twins born on 1-26-19. Congrats!
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#13
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 February 2019 - 05:45 PM

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Congrats Stasch and GDR!

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 36.1"             Coldest Low: -8*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#14
Stacsh

Posted 10 February 2019 - 05:53 PM

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Thanks All. They were a month early so all they do is sleep and eat and poo. Been easy so far. I know that will change. Fun to track storms while I’m off work though!
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#15
Money

Posted 10 February 2019 - 07:59 PM

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Ugly gfs/icon runs for this system
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#16
Stacsh

Posted 10 February 2019 - 08:03 PM

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I had twins born on 1-26-19. Congrats!


Congrats!

#17
OmahaSnowFan

Posted 10 February 2019 - 08:09 PM

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0Z GFS with another turd for Nebraska. Man this epic pattern is going to drop 1-5” total over the entire state. Guess it’ll eventually be proven why 12”, 10”, or heck even 8” storms are so rare despite the totals that those 10 day clown maps on the long range models keep showing.
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#18
Grizzcoat

Posted 10 February 2019 - 08:27 PM

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Don't lose hope!!!! The trusty CMC still has it!! So that means it will not happen.


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2018-19 Snowfall- 41.8" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 20.5" JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#19
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 February 2019 - 08:29 PM

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I'm regretting starting this thread now lol. Maybe Euro will have it still.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 36.1"             Coldest Low: -8*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#20
jaster220

Posted 10 February 2019 - 08:33 PM

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I'm regretting starting this thread now lol. Maybe Euro will have it still.

 

We've regretted starting all but one thd in the SMI forum


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 47.7"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 8.8 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#21
Grizzcoat

Posted 10 February 2019 - 08:57 PM

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Pretty sure the UKIE lost it also.


2018-19 Snowfall- 41.8" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 20.5" JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#22
jcwxguy

Posted 10 February 2019 - 10:20 PM

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Euro still has it, although weaker

#23
snowstorm83

Posted 10 February 2019 - 10:48 PM

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If there's actually moisture with this thing at least it should be pure snow. Sleet a few days ago, sleet this morning, and probably sleet tomorrow. 



#24
Grizzcoat

Posted 11 February 2019 - 02:04 AM

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6Z gfs continues a dud.


2018-19 Snowfall- 41.8" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 20.5" JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#25
Tom

Posted 11 February 2019 - 05:05 AM

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00z Euro still has it but not as robust as earlier runs...still some decent ensemble support but this overall set up is not really looking ideal for those weenie runs we saw earlier this week.



#26
Tom

Posted 11 February 2019 - 05:06 AM

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00z Euro still has it but not as robust as earlier runs...still some decent ensemble support but this overall set up is not really looking ideal for those weenie runs we saw earlier this week.

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#27
Niko

Posted 11 February 2019 - 05:24 AM

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NOAA:

 

LONG TERM / THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A brief respite from the active weather pattern will occur Thursday
with dry weather as the surface ridging quickly passes by. Attention
then shifts to another very dynamic low pressure system ejecting out
of the Plains Thursday night into Friday. There continues to remain
some differences in the track of the low, but long range guidance
has been in pretty good agreement that this system will potentially
be even stronger as it deepens to the mid 980s hPa as it tracks near
the region. Thermal profiles with this system suggest that another
significant winter storm will be possible, with snow being the main
ptype.


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#28
Clinton

Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:07 AM

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GFS and ICON still showing little snow on Friday.  A nice little appetizer before the big dog comes in early next week.

snku_024h.us_c.png



#29
Hawkeye

Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:26 AM

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It appears the 12z euro also dropped it.


season snowfall: 43.5"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#30
Niko

Posted 11 February 2019 - 11:27 AM

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I think models will have a better handle on this system once this upcoming storm exits the picture.



#31
Grizzcoat

Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:03 PM

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decent snows for KC at HR 96 etc. on GFS--- Clinton should be happy!!!


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2018-19 Snowfall- 41.8" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 20.5" JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#32
Clinton

Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:05 PM

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It's good to see, I hope the NAM picks up on it tomorrow!

snku_024h.us_mw.png



#33
Grizzcoat

Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:05 PM

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and another nice wave behind for NE,IA ,MO--- #BUILD THE GLACIER


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2018-19 Snowfall- 41.8" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 20.5" JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#34
Clinton

Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:38 PM

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and another nice wave behind for NE,IA ,MO--- #BUILD THE GLACIER

CMC also has this wave on Sunday, and this the part of the LRC that produced in both the first and second cycles.



#35
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:02 PM

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Wow this coming weekend looking good so far! A couple decent hits across Nebraska and Iowa.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 38.00"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#36
jcwxguy

Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:52 PM

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Fv3 seems locked and loaded

#37
LNK_Weather

Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:37 PM

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Went ahead and extended the end date for this thread to the 17th cuz it looks like this thing may end up having multiple waves. There's been so many threads lately that I can't keep track of them all lol. Figured we may as well consolidate this weekend into one.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 36.1"             Coldest Low: -8*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#38
LNK_Weather

Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:43 PM

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Euro, GFS, and FV3 are all good for here. I'm approaching this cautiously cuz all the past few times all the models have been good for here five days out, we've ended up with ≤1".
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 36.1"             Coldest Low: -8*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#39
Tom

Posted 12 February 2019 - 03:56 AM

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00z Euro snow fall from the Fri/Sat wave...

 

 

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#40
Tom

Posted 12 February 2019 - 03:58 AM

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00z Euro...2nd wave Sat/Sun...

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#41
Clinton

Posted 12 February 2019 - 04:15 AM

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It doesn't look like the storm train ends after this weekend.  The FV3 continues to show a big southern and central plains storm on the 19th and 20th and another good hit for Neb, Kan, MO and Iowa on the 23rd.



#42
westMJim

Posted 12 February 2019 - 04:41 AM

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On the weekend system NWS GRR today says nothing to see there.  Maybe a inch or so if not less.



#43
Tom

Posted 12 February 2019 - 05:30 AM

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There's your snow for those in the KC/MO region...nearly identical snow shield when comparing to the Nov 8th-10 upper level wave which produced snow across NE/KS/MO.  Just amazing how powerful the LRC can be...this is just the beginning of a series of disturbances throughout next week.

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#44
Clinton

Posted 12 February 2019 - 05:56 AM

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There's your snow for those in the KC/MO region...nearly identical snow shield when comparing to the Nov 8th-10 upper level wave which produced snow across NE/KS/MO.  Just amazing how powerful the LRC can be...this is just the beginning of a series of disturbances throughout ne

Truly amazing and this will be the Feb version with a more amped jet stream, so I think we can add on to those totals a little.


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#45
Clinton

Posted 12 February 2019 - 06:44 AM

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Nooo!

zr_acc.us_c.png



#46
Clinton

Posted 12 February 2019 - 08:11 AM

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12z GFS 1st wave

snku_024h.us_mw.png



#47
Clinton

Posted 12 February 2019 - 08:13 AM

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12z GFS 2nd wave

snku_024h.us_mw.png



#48
Niko

Posted 12 February 2019 - 09:02 AM

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12z GFS 2nd wave

snku_024h.us_mw.png

A little more north pls. ;)


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#49
Niko

Posted 12 February 2019 - 09:03 AM

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Man, just a couple of days ago, this was advertised to be a "PowerHouse" and then suddenly, it went to a simple meh! :wacko:


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#50
East Dubzz

Posted 12 February 2019 - 09:17 AM

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It’s interesting seeing a sub 1000mb low track over the area with little to no precipitation.