2/14-2/17 Possible Winter Storm Train

[Minny_Weather]

It's fairly certain that there will be a storm late this week somewhere in the sub. There is still high model variance on this one.

 

00Z Euro

 

12Z GFS

[jcwxguy]

12z euro

[Stacsh]

Thursday/Friday system looking better for SMI.

[Clinton]

Need to pull the Euro south just a bit.

[jcwxguy]

18z GFS

[gimmesnow]

I'm in the bullseye, but it's the GFS so I'm prepared to receive 0 inches.

[jaster220]

12z euro

 

Clearly has the heaviest accum's in SMI, not CMI, yet here's my office's take

 

 

ECMWF points

toward 6-8 inches north of I-96. We`ll see how the track of the low evolves over time.

 

Thursday/Friday system looking better for SMI.

 

You should be golden for that one up there. I'll likely be sweating it all week down here.

[Minny_Weather]

Imo, the GFS solution is way too sloppy. I expect a 989mb system to be more tightly wound than what 18Z GFS showed. I'd expect more of a Euro solution from this.

[Stacsh]

Clearly has the heaviest accum's in SMI, not CMI, yet here's my office's take

 

 

 

You should be golden for that one up there. I'll likely be sweating it all week down here.

Hope so! Stuck at home for two weeks ( just had twin boys!!!). Need to get out of the house and snow blow something!

[Grizzcoat]

So it seems DMX thinking tonights' runs will have decent handle on it--- 

 

Thursday-Saturday Winter Weather Potential...

Long range models suggesting yet another winter storms impacting the
Midwest sometime during this timeframe. As anticipated in
yesterday afternoon`s AFD, models are beginning to tighten on a
solution and track... that actually looks somewhat similar to this
current system... only potentially stronger, with a sfc low
possibly dropping to 985mb and a 1030mb sfc high over the
backside. This would intuitively suggest a very strong wind
potential with wintry precip.

Tracing this system back to its source region takes us all the way
to the Gulf of Alaska. By 00z Mon... if this system holds... should
be much more well-defined and off the British Columbia coastline. So
am ultimately expecting an even bigger increase in model handling of
this system with the 00z Mon models... until then not worth getting
into details too much other than to say that this is something that
absolutely bears monitoring.

[jaster220]

Hope so! Stuck at home for two weeks ( just had twin boys!!!). Need to get out of the house and snow blow something!

 

 

First of all, congrats on the growing fam! Second of all, condolences on your sleep, and related short-term sanity.

 

I was you almost exactly 19 yrs ago as mine were born 2-11-00. In a couple yrs you'll be taking them out in sleds and such. The first 6-12 mos can be rough tho. I felt like my hobby life ceased to exist for a while but it's worth it.

[GDR]

Hope so! Stuck at home for two weeks ( just had twin boys!!!). Need to get out of the house and snow blow something!

I had twins born on 1-26-19. Congrats!

[Minny_Weather]

Congrats Stasch and GDR!

[Stacsh]

Thanks All. They were a month early so all they do is sleep and eat and poo. Been easy so far. I know that will change. Fun to track storms while I’m off work though!

[Money]

Ugly gfs/icon runs for this system

[Stacsh]

I had twins born on 1-26-19. Congrats!

Congrats!

[OmahaSnowFan]

0Z GFS with another turd for Nebraska. Man this epic pattern is going to drop 1-5” total over the entire state. Guess it’ll eventually be proven why 12”, 10”, or heck even 8” storms are so rare despite the totals that those 10 day clown maps on the long range models keep showing.

[Grizzcoat]

Don't lose hope!!!! The trusty CMC still has it!! So that means it will not happen.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm regretting starting this thread now lol. Maybe Euro will have it still.

[jaster220]

I'm regretting starting this thread now lol. Maybe Euro will have it still.

 

We've regretted starting all but one thd in the SMI forum

[Grizzcoat]

Pretty sure the UKIE lost it also.

[jcwxguy]

Euro still has it, although weaker

[snowstorm83]

If there's actually moisture with this thing at least it should be pure snow. Sleet a few days ago, sleet this morning, and probably sleet tomorrow. 

[Grizzcoat]

6Z gfs continues a dud.

[Tom]

00z Euro still has it but not as robust as earlier runs...still some decent ensemble support but this overall set up is not really looking ideal for those weenie runs we saw earlier this week.

[Tom]

00z Euro still has it but not as robust as earlier runs...still some decent ensemble support but this overall set up is not really looking ideal for those weenie runs we saw earlier this week.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

LONG TERM / THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A brief respite from the active weather pattern will occur Thursday
with dry weather as the surface ridging quickly passes by. Attention
then shifts to another very dynamic low pressure system ejecting out
of the Plains Thursday night into Friday. There continues to remain
some differences in the track of the low, but long range guidance
has been in pretty good agreement that this system will potentially
be even stronger as it deepens to the mid 980s hPa as it tracks near
the region. Thermal profiles with this system suggest that another
significant winter storm will be possible, with snow being the main
ptype.

[Clinton]

GFS and ICON still showing little snow on Friday.  A nice little appetizer before the big dog comes in early next week.

[Hawkeye]

It appears the 12z euro also dropped it.

[Niko]

I think models will have a better handle on this system once this upcoming storm exits the picture.

[Grizzcoat]

decent snows for KC at HR 96 etc. on GFS--- Clinton should be happy!!!

[Clinton]

It's good to see, I hope the NAM picks up on it tomorrow!

[Grizzcoat]

and another nice wave behind for NE,IA ,MO--- #BUILD THE GLACIER

[Clinton]

and another nice wave behind for NE,IA ,MO--- #BUILD THE GLACIER

CMC also has this wave on Sunday, and this the part of the LRC that produced in both the first and second cycles.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow this coming weekend looking good so far! A couple decent hits across Nebraska and Iowa.

[jcwxguy]

Fv3 seems locked and loaded

[Minny_Weather]

Went ahead and extended the end date for this thread to the 17th cuz it looks like this thing may end up having multiple waves. There's been so many threads lately that I can't keep track of them all lol. Figured we may as well consolidate this weekend into one.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro, GFS, and FV3 are all good for here. I'm approaching this cautiously cuz all the past few times all the models have been good for here five days out, we've ended up with ≤1".

[Tom]

00z Euro snow fall from the Fri/Sat wave...

 

 

[Tom]

00z Euro...2nd wave Sat/Sun...