Minny_Weather Posted February 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 12z GEFS look pretty nice across the heartland...this is just through this weekend.Seeing that those are 10:1 maps and these look like 15-20:1 events, I'll take most of those. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 12, 2019 Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 A quick moving shortwave coming out of the central Rockies couldspread some light snow into the area for Friday. Highs only in theteens, with the potential for another inch or two of snow, butwith relatively light winds. The good news about this system isthat it appears to only be snow, and no mixed precipitation isexpected. Snow winds down Friday evening. Cold again Friday nightwith lows in the single digits. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019 While there may be a brief respite early Saturday morning, thenext weather system is already moving into the area by Saturdayafternoon. There seems to be very good model agreement with thissystem with snow developing through the day Saturday and continuingSaturday night, tapering off by Sunday evening. In fact, thereappears to be enough model continuity on timing and location toboost pops into the 70 to 80% range. Like the system on Friday,winds do not appear to be especially strong with this system, butthere is the potential for at least a few inches of snow. Again,this system appears to be purely snow with no mixed precipitationexpected. As always, this system is too far out to give an amountyet, but we're well into the plowable, winter weather advisoryrange. Stay tuned. Winter's tight grip on the region continues, another troughappears to bring more snow chances to the area for Mondayafternooninto Monday night, although as we typically see, modelsolutions begin to diverge by then. OAX is more impressed by the Saturday night wave than the first wave. I can see where they are coming from on that, the model solutions for the Friday wave just scream "WEENIE BAND IN THE MAKING." 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 12, 2019 Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 I just don't think the clipper system for Friday will be that far southwest, those types of systems usually don't do that and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes more northeast eventually. But I'm definitely liking the trends for this weekend! I don't remember a stretch of winter weather this good in years!Yeah even though we have been nickel and dimed to death by these 2 to 4 inch snowfalls, the reporting station at Omaha Eppley is already at 29 inches of snow for the season that puts us above average for the season on snowfall with half of February and all of March still to go. The pattern this weekend looks like a lot of fun for us snow lovers in Eastern Nebraska. The 2nd wave on Saturday-Sunday looks like it has the potential to give us our largest snowfall of the season so far... something to watch as I am cautiously optimistic. Either way it looks like more snow is coming for us in Nebraska - hoping our recently snow starved friends to the west in Central Nebraska can cash in on some white gold this time as well. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 18z Euro...still suggesting a juicy wave on Friday with temps holding in the mid/upper 10's! #PowderDayFriday I could see this wave ending up being a warning snow around the KC region into MO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 1st wave on the NAM is a good hit for Nebraska Friday moving southeast towards KC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 NAM is cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs imo. The amounts look pretty but I think we all know we'll see those decrease. One thing that is encouraging, though, is the fact that it trends earlier. If this happens during the day that'd be awesome. I'm tired of night snowfalls. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 Wish it was little farther north, but plenty of time for changes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 A little too close for comfort! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 I get a storm running over my head today, and then the "biggie" system Friday goes POOF! and becomes this suppressed clipper thing. Great stuff happen'. Tom buddy. I thought this be the winter Chi-town would bust out of it's recent snowless winter funk. Who pulled the plug on that idea?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 A little too close for comfort! Yeah that screams dry air issues for Omaha on that run, thankfully plenty of time for the models to sort this wave out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 Yeah that screams dry air issues for Omaha on that run, thankfully plenty of time for the models to sort this wave out. I don't think dry air will be a major problem with this one, actually. The DGZ looks to be fully saturated, so all we have to worry about is track and progressiveness with this one. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 C’mon we all know the Friday system is going to turn into a 2” turd again for Omaha. Gotta keep with the theme this winter True. Congrats Iowa peeps! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 Its only Tuesday...still time for changes. As they say, "it ain't ova until its ova." Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 I get a storm running over my head today, and then the "biggie" system Friday goes POOF! and becomes this suppressed clipper thing. Great stuff happen'. Tom buddy. I thought this be the winter Chi-town would bust out of it's recent snowless winter funk. Who pulled the plug on that idea?? :lol: Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 I get a storm running over my head today, and then the "biggie" system Friday goes POOF! and becomes this suppressed clipper thing. Great stuff happen'. Tom buddy. I thought this be the winter Chi-town would bust out of it's recent snowless winter funk. Who pulled the plug on that idea??It's been a winter where the fun has been spread out. In year's past, we were lucky to get hit with big storms while areas nearby continuously missed out. If you look at this winter, in general, our Sub has shared in the wealth but it ain't over till its over. I'm eye balling a couple big ones this month that could take a good track and then when we flip the calendar into March. Still holding out hope for a big one this season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 18z Euro...still suggesting a juicy wave on Friday with temps holding in the mid/upper 10's! #PowderDayFriday I could see this wave ending up being a warning snow around the KC region into MO.I couldn't ask for a better track. It would be a nice way to start off the snow train. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 It's been a winter where the fun has been spread out. In year's past, we were lucky to get hit with big storms while areas nearby continuously missed out. If you look at this winter, in general, our Sub has shared in the wealth but it ain't over till its over. I'm eye balling a couple big ones this month that could take a good track and then when we flip the calendar into March. Still holding out hope for a big one this season. Yeah, but you always hold out hope. Guess I would too if he kept slapping me in the face! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 While I know you guys are joking, the signs, if anything, point to that system sliding too far south of you guys, not too far north. At least the first wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 Gfs with a nice 3-5” for eastern Iowa Sunday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 00z GFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 While I know you guys are joking, the signs, if anything, point to that system sliding too far south of you guys, not too far north. At least the first wave.At this rate it's either we get bullseyed, or snow-starved Central Nebraska gets bullseyed. I wouldn't mind either scenario tbh, I'm actually starting to feel bad for Clint and CentNeb. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 Should know before long what the euro holds for first wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 Wave 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 Wave 2 seems north or not as strong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 Both waves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 At this rate it's either we get bullseyed, or snow-starved Central Nebraska gets bullseyed. I wouldn't mind either scenario tbh, I'm actually starting to feel bad for Clint and CentNeb. Thanks. I had to block Craig from messaging me on Facebook because of this absolute screwjob I've been in ALL WINTER. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 00z GEFS/EPS pretty much in general agreement through the weekend... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 00z Euro...came in a little weaker with the 2nd wave on Sunday around the MW/GL's... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 NWS Hastings has a forecaster (not sure if he or she is new) that gives great details and information that has been really lacking during the winter imo. Must be from the area as they give details of weather patterns and how they affect this region. I get on them sometimes so I wanted to make sure I give credit where credit is due. NWS Hastings thinks we have a lot of winter left. Plus it sounds like the forecaster loves snow. Yea. Really good read gabel23 and clint. Big picture: cannot stress enough that this longwave patternremains favorable for producing a significant snowstorm over thenext 2 wks (6+ inches). While nothing big is envisioned thru TueFeb 19...we will cont to keep an eye for something to come out ofthe wrn trof and lift NE toward the gtlks. This pattern hasproduced a lot of major snowfalls in Nebraska/Kansas over the yrs. Suggestnot letting our guard down. We've had it easy so far this winter.The pattern has finally shifted in our favor. Let's see if it canproduce. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 Keep hope alive for either wave. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 6z GFS coming in stronger. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 This NAM run is HI-LARIOUS. Literally has the band hitting a wall of dry air right on the Lancaster county line, giving us near nothing. I'll post pics when the run is over. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 This NAM run is HI-LARIOUS. Literally has the band hitting a wall of dry air right on the Lancaster county line, giving us near nothing. I'll post pics when the run is over.Does the same thing for me. 2 runs in a row. Hope it's not going to be the trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 This NAM run is HI-LARIOUS. Literally has the band hitting a wall of dry air right on the Lancaster county line, giving us near nothing. I'll post pics when the run is over.06 NAM was a nothing and now the 12Z has really dried out from the 0Z. Will be interesting to see the other 12Z models. Locally saying 1-4" or 2-5" and 1-3" for the Saturday wave and not sure about the one early next week. Lots of moving parts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 I was about to come on here and tell everyone not to look at the NAM. Too late! lol Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 12z NAM as bad as it gets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 13, 2019 Report Share Posted February 13, 2019 The 12Z 3km NAM puts a little snow down through Central Nebraska but it dries out further east. Hopefully just NAM is just one model and not a trend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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