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Your Model Riding Setup

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#1
iFred

Posted 11 February 2019 - 04:58 PM

iFred

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Hey Everyone, in light of the past two weeks of storms, modeled fantasy storms, and for Seattle, the most snow in February in decades, I have been wondering, what are you guys using to model ride? What are you guys using in your day to day?

 

Models?

Weather sites?

Personal weather station?

Home desktop setup?

People on Twitter that you're following?

 

Please share pictures, lists, and bookmarks!



#2
Black Hole

Posted 12 February 2019 - 09:55 AM

Black Hole

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I like weatherbell or the similar weathermodels paid sites for my main model analysis. I look at every model and most runs when something is going on. I use tropical tidbits for the FV3 and ICON models. 

For analysis I use the SPC mesoanalysis page and mesowest quite a bit. For radar I prefer GRAnalyst or radarscope. 

 


Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3") ::: Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3", 21: .6", 24: 1.4", 25: 1.5", 26: 2.7", 27: 1.5", 30: .8" (16.5") ::: Jan 6: 2.7", 16: 1.1", 18: 1", 21: 5.6", 23: .4" (10.8") ::: Feb 5: 3.7", 6: 4.3", 7: 2.0", 10: 4.5", 15: 3.4", 19: 2.8" (20.7") ::: Mar 2: 3.0", 3: 2.3", 8: 3.2", 13: 6.0", 14: 1.1", 28: 1.2", 29: 3.9" (20.7") ::: April 10: .3", 12: 3" (3.3")

Total: 76.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#3
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 12 February 2019 - 12:25 PM

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Models are useless without a mesoscale climatological understanding of forecast region. That's why they call them guidance. Anomalies do occur. Like Ice Storms in Baltimore.

GFS is best 60-144 hrs, synopticly, has a warm bias. NAM is best 48-60 hrs, cold bias. Euro has been off, but you got to look.

Sites: tidbits, Rap real-time weather, outstanding surface reports. E-wall University of Pennsylvania for hi res satellites, meteocentre.com ptype break-down helps you dilute tidbits algorithm. All free..

Or you can listen to the NWS and be sitting in the dark like me.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#4
Phil

Posted 13 February 2019 - 02:39 PM

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I use WxBell mostly, tropical tidbits occasionally. For pattern/wavetrain/storm analogs (just as important if not more-so for long range) there’s ESRL and stormvista.

For my own region, often times I don’t need models in the very short range, and can read a storm by staring at it/the pattern for a few minutes. However, I haven’t been able to do that this winter at all..the rules haven’t exactly worked the way they typically have in the past. 🤷‍♀️

Personal Weather Station Live Stream.
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily


#5
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:58 AM

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Long post, but I will share what I have bookmarked.

 

NWS sites:

 

https://www.weather.gov/sew/ (Seattle)

https://www.weather.gov/pqr/ (Portland)

https://www.weather.gov/pdt/ (Pendleton)

https://www.weather.gov/otx/ (Spokane)

 

https://a.atmos.wash...isc_report.html  AFD discussions for all four of those areas in one convenient sites

 

Local weather blogs:

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/  UW's Dr. Cliff Mass, blogs about PNW weather and climate, particularly Western Washington

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/  Mark Nelsen from Portland, a must bookmark for SW Washington and for Portland people

 

MODELS:

 

https://www.tropical...019021412&fh=6 GFS, you can change it to 850's, change it to the PNW, etc

https://www.tropical...19021412&fh=6c Euro, same thing

You can also go to the mesoscale models and get the NAM.

https://www.pivotalw....com/model.php Pivotal Weather has the same models, but one difference is the FV3 (for now) allows you to zoom in on the PNW

 

https://weather.us/m...el-charts/euro For those that do not subscribe to a service, this is a free site that can give you snowfall maps, but be aware it gives you the total precip that falls as snow, so one inch means not one inch of snow, but one inch of precip that falls as snow.  Make sure you use the most current map, and it allows you to zoom in on your location.  It also lets you see way more parameters than the Tidbits or the Pivotal sites do.

 

https://a.atmos.wash...edgfsinit.html UW MRF map.  

https://a.atmos.wash...les/plumes.html  WRF ensembles plume, select your location and the parameter.

https://www.cpc.ncep...4day/500mb.php CPC 8-14 day maps, has links to surface temp and precip maps and discussion.

https://www.cpc.ncep...10day/500mb.php  CPC 6-10 day maps.

 

Radar:

 

https://atmos.uw.edu...orthwest-radar/  There are many, but I use this one, it allows you to go from 1 to 8 hours, and to zoom in, and to speed up or slow down the frames per second.

 

Twitter:

 

https://twitter.com/ScottSKOMO Scott Sistek from KOMO weather.  A snow lover like us, tweets a lot during storms.

https://twitter.com/MarkNelsenKPTV  Mark Nelsen for the Portland SW Washington folks.

https://twitter.com/AlbrechtJay  Jay Albrect from the Seattle NWS and an occasional poster on this forum

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle  Seattle NWS

https://twitter.com/NWSPortlandPortland NWS

https://twitter.com/NWSPendleton Pendleton NWS

https://twitter.com/NWSSpokane Spokane NWS

https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy His name is Michael Snyder, he forecasts for Alaska Airlines.

https://twitter.com/...SeattleWeather From Seattle Weather Blog

 

Twitter for bigger weather picture, El Nino, etc.

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue Very interesting, one of the founders of weather.us and full of great weather stats

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice Dr. Ventrice is also very interesting, has a lot of tweets about long ranger weather trends.

https://twitter.com/...BigJoeBastardi I know a lot of people don't like Bastardi because he has an East Coast bias (true), and he does offer a lot of political opinion (true) that some people won't like, but he does know his stuff, especially weather history

 

El Nino/Ocean analysis

 

https://www.tropical...analysis/ocean/

https://www.cpc.ncep...2seasonal.shtml  CFS2 predictons

https://www.cpc.ncep...MJO/enso.shtml CPC El Nino page, links to most current weekly status

https://iri.columbia...s/enso/current/  Has a link there to all the different ENSO projections from different computers.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/  From the Aussie weather bureau


  • iFred and Phil like this

#6
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 19 February 2019 - 04:47 PM

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Long post, but I will share what I have bookmarked.

 

NWS sites:

 

https://www.weather.gov/sew/ (Seattle)

https://www.weather.gov/pqr/ (Portland)

https://www.weather.gov/pdt/ (Pendleton)

https://www.weather.gov/otx/ (Spokane)

 

https://a.atmos.wash...isc_report.html  AFD discussions for all four of those areas in one convenient sites

 

Local weather blogs:

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/  UW's Dr. Cliff Mass, blogs about PNW weather and climate, particularly Western Washington

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/  Mark Nelsen from Portland, a must bookmark for SW Washington and for Portland people

 

MODELS:

 

https://www.tropical...019021412&fh=6 GFS, you can change it to 850's, change it to the PNW, etc

https://www.tropical...19021412&fh=6c Euro, same thing

You can also go to the mesoscale models and get the NAM.

https://www.pivotalw....com/model.php Pivotal Weather has the same models, but one difference is the FV3 (for now) allows you to zoom in on the PNW

 

https://weather.us/m...el-charts/euro For those that do not subscribe to a service, this is a free site that can give you snowfall maps, but be aware it gives you the total precip that falls as snow, so one inch means not one inch of snow, but one inch of precip that falls as snow.  Make sure you use the most current map, and it allows you to zoom in on your location.  It also lets you see way more parameters than the Tidbits or the Pivotal sites do.

 

https://a.atmos.wash...edgfsinit.html UW MRF map.  

https://a.atmos.wash...les/plumes.html  WRF ensembles plume, select your location and the parameter.

https://www.cpc.ncep...4day/500mb.php CPC 8-14 day maps, has links to surface temp and precip maps and discussion.

https://www.cpc.ncep...10day/500mb.php  CPC 6-10 day maps.

 

Radar:

 

https://atmos.uw.edu...orthwest-radar/  There are many, but I use this one, it allows you to go from 1 to 8 hours, and to zoom in, and to speed up or slow down the frames per second.

 

Twitter:

 

https://twitter.com/ScottSKOMO Scott Sistek from KOMO weather.  A snow lover like us, tweets a lot during storms.

https://twitter.com/MarkNelsenKPTV  Mark Nelsen for the Portland SW Washington folks.

https://twitter.com/AlbrechtJay  Jay Albrect from the Seattle NWS and an occasional poster on this forum

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle  Seattle NWS

https://twitter.com/NWSPortlandPortland NWS

https://twitter.com/NWSPendleton Pendleton NWS

https://twitter.com/NWSSpokane Spokane NWS

https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy His name is Michael Snyder, he forecasts for Alaska Airlines.

https://twitter.com/...SeattleWeather From Seattle Weather Blog

 

Twitter for bigger weather picture, El Nino, etc.

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue Very interesting, one of the founders of weather.us and full of great weather stats

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice Dr. Ventrice is also very interesting, has a lot of tweets about long ranger weather trends.

https://twitter.com/...BigJoeBastardi I know a lot of people don't like Bastardi because he has an East Coast bias (true), and he does offer a lot of political opinion (true) that some people won't like, but he does know his stuff, especially weather history

 

El Nino/Ocean analysis

 

https://www.tropical...analysis/ocean/

https://www.cpc.ncep...2seasonal.shtml  CFS2 predictons

https://www.cpc.ncep...MJO/enso.shtml CPC El Nino page, links to most current weekly status

https://iri.columbia...s/enso/current/  Has a link there to all the different ENSO projections from different computers.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/  From the Aussie weather bureau

 

NICE! Some great resources here!


  • iFred likes this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!