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February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

Snow ice cold winter
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#51
High Desert Mat?

Posted 14 February 2019 - 08:57 AM

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24 and has been snowing since about 3am in Redmond. Ow I’m in madras and it’s also 24 with about 2” snow as well. Great February so far.

#52
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:03 AM

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The mid-week trough is a bit watered down on the 12z runs. The one following it looks pretty stout on the GFS and ICON.

 

Chilly airmass this weekend too.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#53
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:03 AM

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East winds have really ramped up here. Gusts in the 30-35mph range. Temp is 37.

#54
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:10 AM

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Yesterday was my 11th straight sub-40 high. 38/32. Low of 33 this morning, so probably going to be my first day in awhile with a low above freezing We'll see how warm things get later on. Very warm airmass overhead right now will cool dramatically by early tomorrow morning. Low level flow goes southerly tomorrow though which is why in the valley it should be a warmer day even with a much cooler upper level airmass. 

 

So far this month.

 

Avg Max: 38.3

Avg Min: 28.0

Precip: 5.67"

Snow: 25.0"


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#55
Omegaraptor

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:13 AM

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Redding got 10” of snow, Eureka got snow, subtropical desert Las Vegas got snow, even Hawaii of all places is breaking snowfall records.

I hate Failshington County. Northernmost subtropical climate on the west coast. Guess what? Despite the massive dumps the last couple of days we’re still probably going to finish the month with rainfall right around normal.

At least the pow in the mountains is absolutely amazing. Skiing was epic yesterday.
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No rain here until Hour 258.

#56
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:13 AM

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Wind advisory just posted for the Central and Southern Willamette Valley this afternoon. Possibility of a strong brief burst of high winds as the low ejects northward 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#57
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:32 AM

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KLMT has picked up around an inch of rain over the last 12+ hours!

 

The record for February 14 is 0.67" in 1981 at least according to wunderground.

 

ev47l5.jpg


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 11.00"
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 04.50"
Jan '20 -
Feb '20 -
Mar '20 -
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#58
antipex

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:32 AM

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The mid-week trough is a bit watered down on the 12z runs. The one following it looks pretty stout on the GFS and ICON.

 

Chilly airmass this weekend too.

 

 

We do have to confront the fact that we're going into the second half of February and eventually March. Even if troughs continue it will be moderated compared to what's possible earlier in the season.



#59
Esquimalt

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:33 AM

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They have a tendency to do this in overrunning situations. I'm pretty sure we'll see a bit of wet snow today, but nothing I'd consider meeting the warning criteria. That said, it's nice to see the NE winds strengthening this morning and 850mb look to stay below freezing the entire time.


Pretty dry so we might be good for some evaporative cooling

#60
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:34 AM

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KLMT has picked up around an inch of rain over the last 12+ hours!

 

ev47l5.jpg

 

That is FANTASTIC news for Klamath Basin farmers. Especially since a lot of that was probably snow higher up. Looks like you guys are under a snow advisory for tonight.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#61
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:36 AM

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That is FANTASTIC news for Klamath Basin farmers. Especially since a lot of that was probably snow higher up. Looks like you guys are under a snow advisory for tonight.

 

I've had a few literal downpours out of this. I usually don't start getting this kind of rain until sometime in March/April.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 11.00"
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 04.50"
Jan '20 -
Feb '20 -
Mar '20 -
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#62
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:37 AM

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Because Eugene has been relatively mild compared to PDX and even SLE I guess I didn't realize how chilly it has been in SW Oregon. Medford running a -5 departure on the month and had 2.1" of snow last week. K-Falls over a -6 temp departure. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#63
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:39 AM

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Pretty strong rain band about to hit the Portland area.

#64
epiceast

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:42 AM

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That is FANTASTIC news for Klamath Basin farmers. Especially since a lot of that was probably snow higher up. Looks like you guys are under a snow advisory for tonight.

But 1500 cattle lost in Sunnyside due to Blizzard conditions  :(



#65
Jginmartini

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:50 AM

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39.7 already! Just got done doing some work outside and feels like a warm spring morning. Snow is still frozen though from the overnight freeze (28*).
40s, here I come....ugh :(
Layman’s terms please 😁

#66
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:51 AM

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That is one persistently below average ensemble mean.

Attached File  5226AD10-3A10-436D-980B-B85F05079276.png   34.92KB   1 downloads
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#67
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:53 AM

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Nobody mentioned this but the 12z GFS basically shows a March 1989 redux at 384 hours.
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#68
TT-SEA

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:55 AM

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SEA is at 43 already.



#69
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:55 AM

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Nobody mentioned this but the 12z GFS basically shows a March 1989 redux at 384 hour

 

I was slacking this morning...2nd time in 4 GFS runs it has shown an arctic outbreak in the long range. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#70
XLVIII43to8

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:56 AM

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GFS showing some snow for the PDX area Tuesday morning. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

 

How does the Euro look for Tuesday?



#71
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:57 AM

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SEA is at 43 already.

 

BLOWTORCH


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#72
Cloud

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:58 AM

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That is one persistently below average ensemble mean.

attachicon.gif5226AD10-3A10-436D-980B-B85F05079276.png

It's a shame PDX have had very little to show for during the first stretch. Maybe this second half will produce something memorable.


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#73
Cloud

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:59 AM

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SEA is at 43 already.

Every great period has a brief warmup! Finally end the sub-40 days.

 

We may be heading back into the icebox again soon though.



#74
XLVIII43to8

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:04 AM

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Nobody mentioned this but the 12z GFS basically shows a March 1989 redux at 384 hours.

sfct.us_nw.png

 

You ain't lyin!


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#75
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:05 AM

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It's a shame PDX have had very little to show for during the first stretch. Maybe this second half will produce something memorable.

 

Statistically PDX emerged with a strong showing. Makes you wonder if some of those past events weren't as amazing as they seem on paper. The pattern might not have been as persistent in February 1990, and this month might end up colder, but I think most people in Oregon would take February 1990 over this one, to this point at least. 

 

I will also point out some people on here mocked me when I compared this February to 1985 or 1990...But overall I don't think those are bad comparisons to this point from an observed weather standpoint in NW Oregon.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#76
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:06 AM

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sfct.us_nw.png

 

You ain't lyin!

 

March 1989 didn't really penetrate very far south of PDX, so this map shows a bit more impressive of an airmass.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#77
Timmy

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:07 AM

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Anyone have some euro snow maps ?
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#78
XLVIII43to8

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:07 AM

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Nobody mentioned this but the 12z GFS basically shows a March 1989 redux at 384 hours.

 

Wow, SeaTac hit 7° in early February 1989, with a low dewpoint of -12°!

 

https://www.wundergr...SEA/date/1989-2



#79
FroYoBro

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:09 AM

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Another cold and wet day in Portland. At least we are finally getting winter this month. 


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#80
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:10 AM

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Someone mentioned 1985 yesterday. Overall it's not a bad comparison. January 85' was much colder in the PNW, but most of that was inversion based. Driest January on record most places. 

 

Overall 1985 is probably an underrated year. It is the coldest year on record at SLE, which is astounding considering it had a pretty hot summer. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#81
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:11 AM

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Another cold and wet day in Portland. At least we are finally getting winter this month. 

 

About as raw and nasty a day as you will ever find. CLASSIC PNW weather. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#82
ShawniganLake

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:21 AM

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26F with snow starting to fall here

#83
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:26 AM

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Ironically the trough during the middle of next week might be slightly to far east for PDX to get the goods...After missing out because the troughs were centered just a little too far west. Still looking for the Goldilocks solution. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#84
Cloud

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:33 AM

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NOAA issued an El Nino Advisory today through spring. 

 

Says it's weak with 55% chance. 

 

 

Pretty much a coin toss. 



#85
ShawniganLake

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:38 AM

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Attached File  image.png   461.62KB   6 downloadsAttached File  image.png   469.19KB   4 downloads
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#86
Geos

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:40 AM

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attachicon.gifimage.pngattachicon.gifimage.png


Interesting for this area...

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 23.62", 9/23

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#87
Katzen

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:43 AM

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43 degrees here.

My daughter made it out of North Bend this morning!

Took them two days to shovel out the cars and driveway and a snow plow made it into their neighborhood yesterday afternoon. She said there was black ice everywhere at 7:30 coming home and a few detours between Issaquah and our house as some roads are still closed with downed trees.

 

EDIT: apparently a family member was driving down in to Issauquah, so they left at the same time so they would be able to help each other if one got stuck


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#88
umadbro

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:45 AM

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So much cold rain on the GFS to add to this already awful winter.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#89
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:48 AM

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Quite the trough into California next week.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#90
ShawniganLake

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:06 AM

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WRF cranks up the Fraser outflow again Saturday with Gusts to 50mph. Develops a heavy band of snow for BC with 4-8"Attached File  image.gif   87.12KB   0 downloads

#91
MossMan

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:07 AM

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Thanks for the maps!
That is showing around 3” for my area...not sure I buy that. Doesn’t sound like we will see anything but cold rain until late next week...possibly.

#92
Esquimalt

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:09 AM

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WRF cranks up the Fraser outflow again Saturday with Gusts to 50mph. Develops a heavy band of snow for BC with 4-8"attachicon.gifimage.gif

Why is it showing next to nothing at my place?  



#93
ShawniganLake

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:15 AM

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Why is it showing next to nothing at my place?

Dry. Strait effect, convergence sets up north of you.
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#94
Bryant

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:15 AM

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Why is it showing next to nothing at my place?


To make you ask questions
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#95
Esquimalt

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:16 AM

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Dry. Strait effect, convergence sets up north of you.

Lets hope the wealth gets spread around a bit :) 


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#96
Esquimalt

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:21 AM

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To make you ask questions

Sure, whatever you say man.  Just trying to learn a little more about the weather, that's all.  



#97
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:24 AM

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Wow the fv3 is cold and snowy starting Wednesday. 


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We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#98
ShawniganLake

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:30 AM

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Wow the fv3 is cold and snowy starting Wednesday.


Huge snowstorm in Washington after day 10 as moisture feeds in underneath the block.
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#99
Chewbacca Defense

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:32 AM

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34 with a dew point of 24 at my place. Still have the wind out of the north.

Radar shows precip is getting close, I will curious to see what form it takes....

Main roads are good in town, neighborhoods (especially in the east hills) still a s***show!

Sounds like the Guide was a mess and had to be closed for a while, not sure if they have it back open yet.
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#100
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:34 AM

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42.4 and feels like February out there.  Pretty normal month so far, a bit chilly but nothing memorable. At least it's better than the snooze-fest of Dec-Jan.

 

I keep looking up stats for Indianapolis weather and they are quite intriguing. Their snowiest day on record is less than a foot of snow, yet they are one of the top 25 snowiest cities in the US.  Basically their snow gets dropped a few inches at a time but almost never in extreme events.  I would venture that most of their epic blizzards happened over a couple of calendar days to keep each day's total under a foot.

 

I love the nuances of our microclimates here.  But I also have never had the pleasure of experiencing an Arctic front.  Seems like living in that type of spot would bring plenty of chances on an annual basis.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope






Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Snow ice, cold, winter