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February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

Snow ice cold winter
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#101
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:34 AM

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Going to be interesting tonight when the main moisture gets here. Bremerton is 39 with a dewpoint of 28. 35 here at home dewpoint 22. 


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#102
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:36 AM

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That east wind off the cascades doing it's trick over here.


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#103
HighlandExperience

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:48 AM

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Wow the fv3 is cold and snowy starting Wednesday.


I wish the FV3 was right
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#104
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:50 AM

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So much cold rain on the GFS to add to this already awful winter.


U cold bro?

#105
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:56 AM

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I wish the FV3 was right

It's been very good with the pattern besides precipitation totals. Was first to show the monday system warm up i believe.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#106
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:59 AM

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Statistically PDX emerged with a strong showing. Makes you wonder if some of those past events weren't as amazing as they seem on paper. The pattern might not have been as persistent in February 1990, and this month might end up colder, but I think most people in Oregon would take February 1990 over this one, to this point at least.

I will also point out some people on here mocked me when I compared this February to 1985 or 1990...But overall I don't think those are bad comparisons to this point from an observed weather standpoint in NW Oregon.


Regionally they are terrible analogs. For the Portland area west of 205 down through the Willamette Valley, decent.

For my location this month, 7” of snow and an average to date around 35F. Not too shabby at all. I saw your averages and they are nothing to complain about either.
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#107
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:02 PM

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Good, balanced article about the FV3

 

https://www.washingt...m=.984a4d557619



#108
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:05 PM

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Rough way to run a winter in the Eastern US.  1f926-200d-2642-fe0f.png
EPS 12z just finished and I'm very much enjoying the look of this ridging over the Southeast.

DzZDEqzX0AIH8L-.png
 

 

DzZDE7xXQAEV1IC.png
 



#109
chinook

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:10 PM

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Good, balanced article about the FV3

 

https://www.washingt...m=.984a4d557619

 

 

#trumpbad



#110
Bryant

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:10 PM

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34 with a dew point of 24 at my place. Still have the wind out of the north.

Radar shows precip is getting close, I will curious to see what form it takes....

Main roads are good in town, neighborhoods (especially in the east hills) still a s***show!

Sounds like the Guide was a mess and had to be closed for a while, not sure if they have it back open yet.


Really feels like a situation where locations further north in whatcom county, especially Sumas, Lynden, etc, may end up with a lot more snow than forecasted
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#111
Bryant

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:14 PM

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Sure, whatever you say man. Just trying to learn a little more about the weather, that's all.


It would be beneficial to try and draw some of your own conclusions, then see if others agree with you.

#112
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:18 PM

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Looks like we are going to torch here in a few hours. Roseburg up to 57 with strong south winds. PDX is always a wildcard, but I bet EUG and SLE hit the mid 50s later this afternoon. It will be short lived of course as the magically 528 line makes an appearance later tonight.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#113
MossMan

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:18 PM

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Wow the fv3 is cold and snowy starting Wednesday.

My gut is not feeling it...which means absolutely nothing. If we did end up getting a big round 2 later next week...that would about seal the deal for being one of the greatest February’s on record...for Washington State anyway.

#114
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:21 PM

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Regionally they are terrible analogs. For the Portland area west of 205 down through the Willamette Valley, decent.

For my location this month, 7” of snow and an average to date around 35F. Not too shabby at all. I saw your averages and they are nothing to complain about either.

 

West of 205 and down through the valley those events were probably more significant, but yes for the region as a whole this has been a bit more top tier than that, and should continue to be. In the totality of the month it is likely this month will easily surpass those months even for the valley, and especially if we can squeeze in some kind of south valley snow event. Up here we are on track for a very cold month. My current monthly mean of 33.2 would be 2nd coldest all time for February behind 1989. I would imagine the 2nd half of the month is a bit warmer, but up here we don't have the same kind of seasonal warming into late February areas below 1000' have. Next week should put together some really solidly cold/chilly days. 


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#115
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:28 PM

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#trumpbad

Trump did not invent the FV3, and at least he is willing to put in money to make the US models as good as the European models.  In the long run the FV3 will probably be much better than the GFS (did you read the article?) but IMO they are pushing the release a bit too soon before they can make some of the obvious changes that they need to.  In reality, they are tweaking all the models (including the Euro) all the time.   And there is a place on this forum for political opinions, and this is not it.

DzYpNzFXcAEuNKp.png
 



#116
GHweatherChris

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:47 PM

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Rain/snow mix, surprising for here today.
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#117
chinook

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:49 PM

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Trump did not invent the FV3, and at least he is willing to put in money to make the US models as good as the European models.  In the long run the FV3 will probably be much better than the GFS (did you read the article?) but IMO they are pushing the release a bit too soon before they can make some of the obvious changes that they need to.  In reality, they are tweaking all the models (including the Euro) all the time.   And there is a place on this forum for political opinions, and this is not it.

DzYpNzFXcAEuNKp.png
 

 

satirical hashtags elude you and yes I read the entire article [plus most of the 50 comments that followed at the time of my reading] btw...I don't disagree with anything you pointed out.  

 

thanks for your valued input.  

 

#triggered


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#118
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:23 PM

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45 degrees. Heatwave! 


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#119
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:40 PM

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Still 42 with light rain. Let’s see how warm we get.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 58 (Sept 30)
Coldest low: 30 (Oct 10 & 11)
Days with below freezing temps: 3
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#120
GHweatherChris

Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:50 PM

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Was all snow, albeit big sloppy flakes when we left our house for daughter's dentist appointment, here in Aberdeen proper it is trying to switch to all snow as well!!
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#121
MossMan

Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:53 PM

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Seeing heavy echos on the radar around Tacoma, anyone down there seeing anything other than liquid?

#122
Jginmartini

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:04 PM

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Out running errands and to my surprise I’m getting positive splats on windshield under this heavy shower
Must be some good cold air above me.
Layman’s terms please 😁

#123
Jginmartini

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:09 PM

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Forgot to add temp. On car dash read 39
Layman’s terms please 😁

#124
MillCreekMike

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:10 PM

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41 degrees has never felt so warm!!

#125
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:12 PM

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Warm air starting to move into the southern valley with Eugene up to 46 with a south wind. On the coast the cold trough starting to come onshore. Down to 42 at North Bend and 41 in Newport with west winds. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#126
mjb

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:12 PM

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Seeing heavy echos on the radar around Tacoma, anyone down there seeing anything other than liquid?

Cant get out to do a splat test, but looks like all rain. 36 deg. and raining hard.


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#127
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:15 PM

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Finally looking at the 12z EURO it showed EUG hitting 50 today with a finger of warm air that makes it up almost to Albany, but keeps Salem with a high of 42. Interesting to watch that play out now in real time...


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#128
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:17 PM

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Overall the 12z EURO is a little cooler than previous runs for high temps in NW Oregon. 50 tomorrow of course, but then mostly low 40s, with upper 30s on day 10. Looks pretty similar to late last February in terms of temps. Very chilly lows. Even a lot of upper 20s Sunday morning and several days with lows in the 20-25 range next week. Friday morning next week it scatters a few teens through Western Washington and Oregon. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#129
Katzen

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:17 PM

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41 here with light rain, a few snowflakes here and there



#130
Fircrest

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:18 PM

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There were a couple of big wet flakes mixed in, but mostly very cold rain.

#131
Chewbacca Defense

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:27 PM

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Peaked at 39 and now back to 37 here in Bellingham. Still plenty of opportunity for it to go back the other way again.....wait and see....still no moisture from the sky other than a few flurries

#132
GHweatherChris

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:29 PM

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This is crazy, all snow in Aberdeen proper now, not sticking but still fun to watch!!
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#133
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:30 PM

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18z!!!!!!!!!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#134
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:31 PM

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Euro teasing with snow on day 10...

 

52038524_613886029070520_236609325711858


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#135
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:35 PM

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18z!!!!!!!!!

 

DRUNCLE!


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#136
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:42 PM

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A lot of backdoor cold into the east side mid-week next week, then a pretty cold shot for the weekend. Kool!


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#137
jakerepp

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:44 PM

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Noob looking for answers...where are you all pulling these maps from? 



#138
HighlandExperience

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:53 PM

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Wow the fv3 is cold and snowy starting Wednesday. 

 

Remember when Jesus left the best wine for last? 


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#139
Bryant

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:57 PM

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Really curious to see what happens from north Bellingham up into Ferndale, Lynden, Blaine, Sumas, etc. Decent slug of moisture headed their way, with temps in the mid to upper 30s, while DPs are in the lower to mid 20s. Not any snow forecasted for up that way, but this wouldn't be the first time they hang onto snow for much longer than expected
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#140
Bryant

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:00 PM

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Noob looking for answers...where are you all pulling these maps from?


This will be the most user friendly site to start with: https://www.tropical...nalysis/models/

Get familiar with the site in regards to changing the region, and shifting through the different models
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#141
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:01 PM

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Noob looking for answers...where are you all pulling these maps from? 

 

Tropicaltidbits.com 

 

pivotalweather.com


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#142
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:01 PM

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Snowing here and 33 degrees. Started as rain and switched to snow in ten minutes.
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We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#143
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:02 PM

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The long range GFS is absolutely fantastic. Dry and crisp. This time of year an airmass like that could put up some 44/20 type numbers...


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#144
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:03 PM

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Checking out the 12z CFS...Kind of the same old drumbeat into March...

500h_anom.na.png


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#145
HighlandExperience

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:05 PM

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Checking out the 12z CFS...Kind of the same old drumbeat into March...

500h_anom.na.png


Really wish all of this started in December.

#146
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:08 PM

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Really wish all of this started in December.

 

No doubt. I was thinking, if we really are going to have a legit Nino next year it would make sense for it to be front loaded considering how incredibly back loaded this winter and last were (Xmas event PDX north last winter notwithstanding.). 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#147
Christensen87

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:11 PM

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Things are really looking interesting next weekend...



#148
North_County

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:11 PM

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Really curious to see what happens from north Bellingham up into Ferndale, Lynden, Blaine, Sumas, etc. Decent slug of moisture headed their way, with temps in the mid to upper 30s, while DPs are in the lower to mid 20s. Not any snow forecasted for up that way, but this wouldn't be the first time they hang onto snow for much longer than expected


There may not be an NWS forecast for snow in north county, but EC has a snowfall warning for Abbotsford. This would support your theory of potential snow up this way.

It isn't uncommon for this area to get ignored by the NWS for events that hang close to the border, and is understandable given the low population density.

Warnings
12:16 PM PST Thursday 14 February 2019
Snowfall warning in effect for:

Fraser Valley - west including Abbotsford
Snowfall with total amounts of 5 to 10 cm is expected.

Snow and a risk of freezing rain tonight and Friday morning.

Another area of low pressure will approach the south coast later today. Light snow falling over southern Vancouver Island will spread across the south coast early this afternoon as the low nears. The snow is expected to become heavier late this afternoon as a more organized band of precipitation moves up from the south. Most regions will see 5 to 10 cm of snow tonight.

#149
umadbro

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:14 PM

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Things are really looking interesting next weekend...


I refuse to fall for anything more than 6 hours out.
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KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#150
jakerepp

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:15 PM

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No splats on I5 NB heading into DT Seattle. Car says 39*





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