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February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2


snow_wizard

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The clouds are really moving out of the north now.  Starting to clear out pretty good.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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How does this projected 500mb pattern compare with the late February 2018 pattern?

 

That is a great question.  I'll have to check.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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What is the sunspot forecast for next winter? Still low?

 

That's the million dollar question.  It's about 50/50 whether we are currently at minimum or whether it could still be a year off.  I know the radio flux hasn't yet gone as low as it did on the previous minimum so we might not be there yet, but every cycle is different.

 

It will still be very low regardless though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Here is the setup that brought the late Feb cold last year.  Not much different than what is shown for next weekend.

 

 

post-222-0-10232800-1550456789_thumb.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That's the million dollar question. It's about 50/50 whether we are currently at minimum or whether it could still be a year off. I know the radio flux hasn't yet gone as low as it did on the previous minimum so we might not be there yet, but every cycle is different.

 

It will still be very low regardless though.

The solar wind/geomag minimum also tends to occur later than the sunspot minimum, and that seems to matter more for high latitude upper atmospheric composition/TW forcing than irradiance.

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Kind of a surprising 500mb anomaly composite for this month so far.  The big positive over the Pacific is further south than would be normal for such a cold pattern.  Obviously the ridge bridge to the -NAO did wonders for us.

 

 

post-222-0-65945700-1550457123_thumb.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yeah, Sun angles don’t matter as much when the snow is actually falling (if temperatures are below freezing). Only so much insolation will make it through the cloud deck, and the most intense insolation only lasts 3-4hrs anyway. Plus, once there’s snow on the ground, much of that is reflected anyway.

 

In March 2014 we had something like 30” over 2 weeks, and many of those events accumulated on interstates as if it was mid-January. There was a foot of snow on I-95. There was even a ZR event that month that caked everything in ice (even the streets) during the middle of the day, in spite of the latent heat release from freezing and insolation.

 

That month completely changed my opinion on the sun angle stuff. I used to think it played a major role but recent years have proven otherwise.

 

Snow melt rates on sunny days, though...oh boy.

Yea. I've seen lots of accumulating snow in March. It just melts faster after the snow stops. Same as the snow here now is melting faster than it would have in December
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Yea. I've seen lots of accumulating snow in March. It just melts faster after the snow stops. Same as the snow here now is melting faster than it would have in December

We all know it happens, I don’t think we’ll ever understand why.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Yea. I've seen lots of accumulating snow in March. It just melts faster after the snow stops. Same as the snow here now is melting faster than it would have in December

I was only 12 or so at the time but if I remember correctly my foot of snow in March 1989 stuck around for nearly a week!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I’m going to go ahead and second this that it is indeed cold and I still have hope!!!

Love that deep purple color :) !!!

And it could very well trend even colder as we get closer!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I was only 12 or so at the time but if I remember correctly my foot of snow in March 1989 stuck around for nearly a week!

 

That was a big snow.  It got really cold for a couple of days after the snow and then we had heavy clouds and some cold rain so it did last for a while.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That was a big snow. It got really cold for a couple of days after the snow and then we had heavy clouds and some cold rain so it did last for a while.

Not sure how you guys did in 2002. But it was probably more notable up here. 10 days of snow cover after the 15th. I remember it snowing heavily in the mid 20s one morning.
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Do you live in Stanwood? Seems that area does amazing.

 

I bet places like Darrington get a ton of snow.

I have a Stanwood address but I’m quite a distance from the actual town of Stanwood. (The actual town of Stanwood does not do well with snow accumulations) I’m just east of I-5 by a few miles right on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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What can I say, I'm an extreme weather junkie. Give me the coldest anomalies (cold season) and the hottest anomalies (warm season) humanly possible for my area. I want to freeze in the winter and torch in the summer. ❄⛄

 

What about spring and fall.

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00Z GFS takes things in a different direction. The initial trough that drops over us doesn't cut off, but later on a different cutoff from the west side of the ridge move underneath it and meets the cold airmass. Almost looks like some sort of overrunning event would be possible with that setup.

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It would be crazy to get a regional snow storm again before the month ends and hopefully one that includes down south as well.

 

A regional cold blast followed by an overrunning event would be a cherry on top for this month, and probably leave everyone feeling pretty good about it.

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