February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warm air starting to move into the southern valley with Eugene up to 46 with a south wind. On the coast the cold trough starting to come onshore. Down to 42 at North Bend and 41 in Newport with west winds. 

[mjb]

Seeing heavy echos on the radar around Tacoma, anyone down there seeing anything other than liquid?

Cant get out to do a splat test, but looks like all rain. 36 deg. and raining hard.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Finally looking at the 12z EURO it showed EUG hitting 50 today with a finger of warm air that makes it up almost to Albany, but keeps Salem with a high of 42. Interesting to watch that play out now in real time...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overall the 12z EURO is a little cooler than previous runs for high temps in NW Oregon. 50 tomorrow of course, but then mostly low 40s, with upper 30s on day 10. Looks pretty similar to late last February in terms of temps. Very chilly lows. Even a lot of upper 20s Sunday morning and several days with lows in the 20-25 range next week. Friday morning next week it scatters a few teens through Western Washington and Oregon. 

[Katzen]

41 here with light rain, a few snowflakes here and there

[Fircrest]

There were a couple of big wet flakes mixed in, but mostly very cold rain.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Peaked at 39 and now back to 37 here in Bellingham. Still plenty of opportunity for it to go back the other way again.....wait and see....still no moisture from the sky other than a few flurries

[GHweatherChris]

This is crazy, all snow in Aberdeen proper now, not sticking but still fun to watch!!

[Deweydog]

18z!!!!!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro teasing with snow on day 10...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z!!!!!!!!!

 

DRUNCLE!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of backdoor cold into the east side mid-week next week, then a pretty cold shot for the weekend. Kool!

[jakerepp]

Noob looking for answers...where are you all pulling these maps from? 

[HighlandExperience]

Wow the fv3 is cold and snowy starting Wednesday. 

 

Remember when Jesus left the best wine for last? 

[Bryant]

Really curious to see what happens from north Bellingham up into Ferndale, Lynden, Blaine, Sumas, etc. Decent slug of moisture headed their way, with temps in the mid to upper 30s, while DPs are in the lower to mid 20s. Not any snow forecasted for up that way, but this wouldn't be the first time they hang onto snow for much longer than expected

[Bryant]

Noob looking for answers...where are you all pulling these maps from?

This will be the most user friendly site to start with: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

 

Get familiar with the site in regards to changing the region, and shifting through the different models

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Noob looking for answers...where are you all pulling these maps from? 

 

Tropicaltidbits.com 

 

pivotalweather.com

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowing here and 33 degrees. Started as rain and switched to snow in ten minutes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The long range GFS is absolutely fantastic. Dry and crisp. This time of year an airmass like that could put up some 44/20 type numbers...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Checking out the 12z CFS...Kind of the same old drumbeat into March...

[HighlandExperience]

Checking out the 12z CFS...Kind of the same old drumbeat into March...

 

Really wish all of this started in December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really wish all of this started in December.

 

No doubt. I was thinking, if we really are going to have a legit Nino next year it would make sense for it to be front loaded considering how incredibly back loaded this winter and last were (Xmas event PDX north last winter notwithstanding.). 

[Christensen87]

Things are really looking interesting next weekend...

[North_County]

Really curious to see what happens from north Bellingham up into Ferndale, Lynden, Blaine, Sumas, etc. Decent slug of moisture headed their way, with temps in the mid to upper 30s, while DPs are in the lower to mid 20s. Not any snow forecasted for up that way, but this wouldn't be the first time they hang onto snow for much longer than expected

There may not be an NWS forecast for snow in north county, but EC has a snowfall warning for Abbotsford. This would support your theory of potential snow up this way.

 

It isn't uncommon for this area to get ignored by the NWS for events that hang close to the border, and is understandable given the low population density.

 

Warnings

12:16 PM PST Thursday 14 February 2019

Snowfall warning in effect for:

 

Fraser Valley - west including Abbotsford

Snowfall with total amounts of 5 to 10 cm is expected.

 

Snow and a risk of freezing rain tonight and Friday morning.

 

Another area of low pressure will approach the south coast later today. Light snow falling over southern Vancouver Island will spread across the south coast early this afternoon as the low nears. The snow is expected to become heavier late this afternoon as a more organized band of precipitation moves up from the south. Most regions will see 5 to 10 cm of snow tonight.

[umadbro]

Things are really looking interesting next weekend...

I refuse to fall for anything more than 6 hours out.

[jakerepp]

No splats on I5 NB heading into DT Seattle. Car says 39*

[Cloud]

Things are really looking interesting next weekend...

And just like that the twitter chirping is back in full force. 

NWS downplaying it and rightfully so as it's still days out. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensemble at PDX now stays below -5C pretty much from 2am tomorrow morning until the 26th.

[Christensen87]

Good Lord, could you even imagine the mess this would cause? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good Lord, could you even imagine the mess this would cause? 

 

Storm King?

[Blizzard777]

40s didn’t last long today

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-2 at Cut Bank, MT, but they may rise above 0 by midnight... Expecting 6" of snow and a BALMY high of 12 tomorrow. It looks like their average high this time of year is 35. Their warmest high in the next 7 days is forecast to be 18.

[Bryant]

There may not be an NWS forecast for snow in north county, but EC has a snowfall warning for Abbotsford. This would support your theory of potential snow up this way.

 

It isn't uncommon for this area to get ignored by the NWS for events that hang close to the border, and is understandable given the low population density.

 

Warnings

12:16 PM PST Thursday 14 February 2019

Snowfall warning in effect for:

 

Fraser Valley - west including Abbotsford

Snowfall with total amounts of 5 to 10 cm is expected.

 

Snow and a risk of freezing rain tonight and Friday morning.

 

Another area of low pressure will approach the south coast later today. Light snow falling over southern Vancouver Island will spread across the south coast early this afternoon as the low nears. The snow is expected to become heavier late this afternoon as a more organized band of precipitation moves up from the south. Most regions will see 5 to 10 cm of snow tonight.

You make valid points. I remember Feb of 2017 when Lynden HS was covered by snow drifts, and that was a north whatcom special that wasn't seen well in advance either. Once the snow started piling up however, then the NWS put out a warning

[Geos]

A nasty 37° rain at home.

[Farmboy]

A nasty 37° rain at home.

Unwanted weather.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

47 and occasional showers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[antipex]

37 here in Vancouver, WA with a bitter east wind and cold rain.

[Omegaraptor]

About as raw and nasty a day as you will ever find. CLASSIC PNW weather. 

 

I'm cheering on the rain. At least there's actually snow on Mt Hood now, not the icy crap we had all January.

 

And on that note, snowpack on Mt Hood is now 74% of normal, up from 48% just a little over a week ago.

 

As soon as we actually start getting meaningful precipitation you guys want desert weather...

[Katzen]

39° very light rain and just slightly breezy here