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Winter Storm February 19-21

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#1
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 18 February 2019 - 01:39 AM

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Winter Storm watches are up from NW North Carolina, western Virginia, all of Maryland.

Heavy Snow followed by heavy sleet and freezing rain. Buy candles, lots of candles. Plenty of time yet.

All models are in agreement. I will start with the O6Z ICON. Not because I'm a big fan of that model. I just never seen it forecast that much snow before.



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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#2
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 18 February 2019 - 06:42 AM

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Modified Arctic air that will fuel CAD is heading south across Great lakes.

Attached File  2019021814_metars_dtw.gif   49.7KB   0 downloads

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#3
Phil

Posted 18 February 2019 - 10:34 AM

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Wind gust to 41mph here as the cool, dry air rushes over and down the mountains.
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#4
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 18 February 2019 - 10:52 AM

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Just got back with storm supplies, ready to hunker down. Last storm I had to go shopping for a flashlight battery with ice laden tree branches overhead. Every now and then you would hear a branch break in the distance, sounds like a riffle shot. Very uncomfortable.

I have peeked at 12Z, NAM is relaxing from 06Z. Low level jet trying to kink precip band. GFS most consistent, slight migration NE. Will be looking at Euro...

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#5
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 18 February 2019 - 11:48 AM

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Euro no Change synopticly. Snowfall totals have been the lowest last 48hrs. Maximums look orograghic. Atlantic moisture not reflected in precip fields. No convective signals.

Snow coverage in agreement with all models. CAD stronger, 850mb temps in accordance. Surface high more NE.

Once upon a time, it was the King..

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#6
Phil

Posted 18 February 2019 - 12:01 PM

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The trees here have been darwinized pretty good by high winds in recent years (March 2nd of last year cleared out a lot of weak wood..24hrs of 60-75mph gusts). So hopefully if we end up with a lot of freezing rain, it won’t be too bad.

Then again, we haven’t had a bad ice storm in a very long time..1999 was the last one, and that sucker knocked out our power for almost a week IIRC. Also, the weighing down of branches is a different type of force than wind, so it might not matter.

Who knows..this doesn’t look like a setup for a truly destructive freezing rain event of old times, but you never know with CAD.
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#7
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 18 February 2019 - 12:53 PM

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If I was in western Virginia, I would be shaking in my boots. Expect Ice Storm advisories.

18Z NAM dives CAD SW into upstate SC. CAD stronger.

Tropical tidbits algorithms leave much too be desired. Posting only to note
SE movement. In the end for Baltimore, Washington. 4-8 inches of snow. 1 inch of sleet. .25 to .35 of freezing rain.

Early call, things could change, yada yada yada...

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_22.png   149.51KB   0 downloads

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#8
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 18 February 2019 - 01:52 PM

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Love to see that push...

Attached File  2019021821_metars_dtw.gif   49.89KB   0 downloads
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#9
Andie

Posted 18 February 2019 - 03:05 PM

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Texas will be enjoying 33* to 40* Rain.
10-15 mph winds.
See you guys at the coffee-bar!
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#10
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 18 February 2019 - 03:11 PM

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When I drink the music flows...

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#11
Phil

Posted 19 February 2019 - 12:55 AM

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Winter storm warming for 4-6” of snow and 0.1”+ of ZR.

Nice. Hopefully the surface cold overperforms and we stay all frozen Wednesday night.

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#12
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 19 February 2019 - 05:07 AM

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Precip fields are off. Light rain, sleet to up state SC. Thunder rolls in Miss.

It begins...

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#13
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 19 February 2019 - 05:27 AM

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Attached File  NatLoop_Small.gif   362.55KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#14
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 19 February 2019 - 08:41 AM

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12Z runs shift 4" line further south. Heavy snow band should follow. NAM insist on .5" ice accretion NW Baltimore suburbs, including my place. Ugly...

Sleet in Charlotte NC, reports of snow in Morganton, jut west.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#15
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 19 February 2019 - 10:56 AM

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Awesome convective precip band. Thunder from central Texas to Atlanta. Snow reports NE Georgia.

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#16
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 19 February 2019 - 12:22 PM

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18Z NAM continues heavy snow march to the coast.



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#17
Phil

Posted 19 February 2019 - 02:20 PM

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38.1*F/12*F in my backyard with a light N/NW wind still blowing as of 520pm.

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#18
Phil

Posted 19 February 2019 - 05:32 PM

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Down to 34.3*F, winds veering N/NW, dewpoint 13*F.

The HRRR dumps a lot of precipitation into the inversion during the midday hours tomorrow which keeps the profile cooler..not sure about that, but we’ll see.

FWIW, I’m leaning towards the wedge overperforming a bit because it becomes more of an in-situ inversion, which models actually struggle more with than a classic CAD with a legitimate NErly low level cold air feed.

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#19
Phil

Posted 19 February 2019 - 05:51 PM

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Watching the wetbulb temperature. Down to 27.6*F now and I suspect it will fall bottom out around 25*F before the WAA and low level easterly component begins depositing moisture overnight.

The NWS point and click has us bottoming out at 29*F tomorrow morning..I’m almost certain that is too warm and that we will end up 1-2 degrees colder underneath the frontogenic band.

ln5EnxM.png
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#20
Phil

Posted 19 February 2019 - 06:30 PM

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..Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast...
Days 1-2...

Surface low moving through the OH VLY into the Great Lakes will be accompanied by deep and moist warm advection on southerly winds pushing plumes of high RH from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. As this occurs, a cold high pressure will be anchored over New England before only slowly retreating to the east, maintaining a wedge of cold high pressure down the coast east of
the Appalachians. Robust 290-300K isentropic lift will produce widespread and heavy precipitation from North Carolina all the way into Maine, with synoptic ascent aided by diffluence within a jet streak to the north.

As precipitation falls, it will first occur into a column cold
enough for snow throughout, and a burst of heavy WAA snow is likely from WV and points northeast into PA. This WAA thump of snow will be accompanied by a brief but intense period of 750-600mb frontogenesis which is collocated with the saturated DGZ in an environment with negative theta-e lapse rates. This suggests intense snowfall rates which may exceed 1"/hr at times during the
morning across the Mid-Atlantic.
The duration of intense snow in the region will be limited as the warm nose will lift northward turning precipitation from snow to sleet/freezing rain and eventually rain by the evening. The guidance may be too quick to warm the column due to reinforcement of the wedge by falling precipitation, but eventually precipitation will changeover, leading to a prolonged period of freezing rain across the terrain of WV/VA and into PA. The heaviest snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic is likely from the Panhandle of WV across MD and into Southern PA, where WPC probabilities are high for 4 inches. The heaviest freezing rain is likely in the terrain mentioned above, where a risk exists for 0.5" of accretion even after the snowfall.


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#21
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 20 February 2019 - 02:08 AM

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No anomalies at 5am. 5 miles S- in west Baltimore. Moderate to heavy snow band in Virginia.

Attached File  2019022010_metars_bwi.gif   40.4KB   0 downloads

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#22
Phil

Posted 20 February 2019 - 03:24 AM

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Holy mama it’s unloading. Just picked up 0.5” in 10 mins.

Currently 29.8/26 and still cooling.
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#23
Phil

Posted 20 February 2019 - 04:34 AM

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Passed 2” already.

Currently 28.5/26 and light snow. Another heavy band is approaching from the W/SW, though, so we should start adding quickly again.

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#24
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 20 February 2019 - 04:41 AM

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Finally, 3S- temp tanking 29F, stiff breeze 0810....

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#25
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 20 February 2019 - 04:52 AM

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1/2 SN

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#26
Phil

Posted 20 February 2019 - 04:55 AM

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Another nuke band developing overhead.

~ 2.5” on the ground..28.7/26..warmed 0.2 degrees between bands. So dynamic cooling is the refrigeration mechanism here now.
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#27
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 20 February 2019 - 05:18 AM

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Visibility 3/4S- 27.4F freezing line digging SW. Freezing rain last two hrs Greensboro NC.

Convective band in Ohio starting to bend SE. Nice convective showers complex running up ridge line east of Roanoke.

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#28
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 20 February 2019 - 05:45 AM

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It dropped the hammer 1/4S+

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#29
Phil

Posted 20 February 2019 - 05:53 AM

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Temp down to 28.2 here..3”+ and counting.

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#30
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 20 February 2019 - 06:17 AM

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1/8S+ 2" on the ground...

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#31
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 20 February 2019 - 06:43 AM

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1/2SN. 27.2F you win temp forecast..

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#32
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 20 February 2019 - 07:10 AM

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Just looked at NAM 3hr forecast, bust. Snow line 50 miles too far north. That main convective band is digging SE. A lot more potent than prog.

3" on the ground...

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#33
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 20 February 2019 - 09:02 AM

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I'm getting some wind gust to 20mph temp 28.7F 1/2SN blowing snow. 4.2 on the ground.
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#34
iFred

Posted 20 February 2019 - 11:17 AM

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I appreciate you guys keeping at this, even if there are only a couple of you on the other side of the Appalachians.


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#35
Phil

Posted 20 February 2019 - 11:32 AM

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Picked up 5 quick inches before the changeover. Most of that fell in ~ 2 hours. No wind here though, since we’re sheltered from the east (unlike those W/NW winds which always destroy us, haha). Snow falling straight down the whole time.

Now freezing rain coming down fast and hard under the warm nose..getting nasty out there in a hurry.
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#36
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 20 February 2019 - 12:25 PM

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Just went through the "Mother of all dry slots." Never saw it coming....
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#37
weatherfan2012

Posted 20 February 2019 - 02:36 PM

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Picked up 5 quick inches before the changeover. Most of that fell in ~ 2 hours. No wind here though, since we’re sheltered from the east (unlike those W/NW winds which always destroy us, haha). Snow falling straight down the whole time.
Now freezing rain coming down fast and hard under the warm nose..getting nasty out there in a hurry.

pretty Comerica when some promets cancel winter and winter is now showing up fitting this winter :lol:
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#38
Phil

Posted 20 February 2019 - 05:09 PM

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Just went through the "Mother of all dry slots." Never saw it coming....


Negative vorticity advection from the convection over the Gulf states. Can’t always see that stuff until it’s right on top of you.

Am hovering right around 32 degrees now with freezing mist/rain still accreting to trees, metal, and snow..not much pavement accretion though. Been ongoing since 2pm, so over 6hrs straight. Have seen and heard multiple transformers blow up in the distance (mostly over the last hour or so) but our lights have not even flickered. Trees are holding up just fine, as far as I can tell.

Should warm above freezing shortly, but that’s never a guarantee w/ in-situ CAD, especially here in the river gorge, which can become a cold air drain under some (seemingly random) circumstances. Haha.
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#39
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 21 February 2019 - 03:02 AM

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Light Zl- most of the night. Just a light glaze on exposed surfaces. 31.8F could have been ugly. Others not so fortunate I suppose.

Hope to get a good visible satilite after sunrise. Low clouds may hang on for a while.
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#40
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 21 February 2019 - 08:42 AM

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In summary: 4-6 inches of snow. Ice accretion here was around .15. I really could not tell until after venturing out. Temperature remained below freezing throughout event.

It was a great lesson in negative vorticity.

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#41
Phil

Posted 21 February 2019 - 04:48 PM

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INSANE variations in the ice accumulation here. It never warmed above freezing here until after sunrise. Apparently we got got stuck in a cold pocket (l live in a gorge-like area that in-situ CAD drains cold air into).

Ended up with around 0.2-0.25” of ice accretion at my location, but just a half mile away (out of the creek valley) it was almost nothing. Then there was another pocket of heavier accretion just to the SW along the River Valley, but once you crossed over (near the One Lane Bridge and the Clara Barton Parkway) it again diminished to almost nothing, over a distance of just a few hundred feet. Incredible.

So it was ~ 5” of snow, 1/3” of sleet (maybe a bit more since it compacted into the snowpack) and 0.25” of ZR.
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#42
Phil

Posted 21 February 2019 - 05:01 PM

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Good news is our trees passed the ice stress test.

0.25” of accretion and not a single branch or twig down. Of course a “big” ice storm (1”+ accretion) would be another story, but at least it looks like the recent windstorms have taken care of the flimsy wood. Which means I don’t have to worry about it. :D

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#43
Phil

Posted 21 February 2019 - 11:30 PM

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Pictures of the icy glaze this morning. Not much snow left on the trees, but the ice still looked pretty cool.

ID1PPlU.jpg

RMheM85.jpg
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