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2/23 - 2/24 Central Plains/Midwest Blizzard


Tom

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Alright folks, the beat goes on and yet another major winter storm seems to be taking shape across the central Plains into the western GL's over the weekend.  Some members on here across the Plains will have back-to-back Majors while the rest of us may have to deal with heavy rain and possible thunderstorms???  Could this end up being a monster Blizzard???

 

Let's discuss...

 

Both the GFS/EURO are showing max wind gusts approaching 45-50mph across parts of NE/IA and areas nearby.  Quite an impressive system showing up with lots of potential to be one of the seasons strongest storms.

 

00z Euro...here are the totals so subtract at least 6-10" across much of MN/IA and E NE....

  

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Here's a comparison between both the EPS/GEFS in terms of placement of the heaviest snow through the weekend.  GEFS are farther NW than the EPS.  EPS has nudged somewhat S/SE across the MW and may play a big role for IA peeps, but I think those in NE are looking good as well as into MN.

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It looks very much like the storm track will continue to be NW of lower Michigan. At this time the GRR NWS office is saying nothing to look at here for us. We look to be on the mild side of the systems so while we see some precipitation as either snow, freezing rain or just rain it all should be light. For all of the snow lovers off to the the west and north west congratulations. With clear skies the low here at my house was -1.4° and the current temperature is +4.3° and there is 8" of snow on the ground.

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DMX current take on it. Strong t-storms in the wording and if that wraps around into the cold sector look out:

 

Attention shifts to yet another winter storm that may impact most to all of Iowa Saturday into Sunday. At this time, the track is still very touchy. There appears to be strong WAA ahead of the system, and strong CAA behind this system. Further, in the WAA wing, long-range models show a 60kt 850mb jet that may transport moisture into this system from the Gulf of Mexico. This would certainly support thunderstorms... possibly strong thunderstorms. On the backside, the CAA may support decent snowfall totals. If this system pans out as is currently shown, winds will likely be very strong on the backside of this system on Sunday, which would lead to blowing and drifting of the fallen snow. At this time, too far out to get into fine mesoscale details, but the track of this potential system absolutely bears monitoring... especially for those with travel plans over the weekend. This could have significant impacts on travel across Iowa.

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OAX is going balls deep in Euro with this one. Only mentions rain between 1300 and 1700 on Saturday and even then it's a rain/snow mix.

 

Saturday
Snow before 1pm, then rain and snow between 1pm and 5pm, then snow after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35.
Saturday Night
Snow, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Blustery.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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12z UK - Last night's run had the heavy precip swath up in Minneapolis.

 

I don't see the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area getting into the good snow band.  Nebraska through northern Iowa and southern/central Minnesota and into central/northern Wisconsin seems like the most likely outcome.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019021912_114_5660_228.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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That's going to be quite the potent snowstorm that just misses my area to the nw.  This is climatology, though.  I can't expect a strong, wrapped-up low to track over St. Louis this late in the season.  I don't see anything in the upper air graphics that leads me to believe this could track much, if any, farther south than this.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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That's going to be quite the potent snowstorm that just misses my area to the nw. This is climatology, though. I can't expect a strong, wrapped-up low to track over St. Louis this late in the season. I don't see anything in the upper air graphics that leads me to believe this could track much, if any, farther south than this.

. I agree I see more of a nw shift coming in future runs.
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Gotta watch the backside of this storm as colder air rushes in on Sunday. Rain changing to snow late Sunday pm into the evening could create hazardous conditions.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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CPC taking the lame non-committal route by not breaking-down their best guess as to who sees SN/Mix/RN. Certainly at this range they should have some idea where those boundaries will fall. Makes me think someone from GRR x-fer'd into CPC

 

hazards_d3_7_contours.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CPC taking the lame non-committal route by not breaking-down their best guess as to who sees SN/Mix/RN. Certainly at this range they should have some idea where those boundaries will fall. Makes me think someone from GRR x-fer'd into CPC

 

 

 

All these models are a joke, I would be doing the same thing.

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Whoa, 00z UK good jump south, tracks the low from southeast KS to Quincy, to Chicago, big deformation zone snow misses Omaha to the south, clobbers areas from sw Iowa through eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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