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2/23 - 2/24 Central Plains/Midwest Blizzard


Tom

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I wish there wasn't so much mild air ahead of this thing.  Even with the farther south low track, 850 mb doesn't go sub-freezing until the low has passed by.  This is a compact system, too, with a relatively narrow heavy snow band.  It'll take some luck to be under it.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Took a look at all the 51 EPS members and a shift SE in the mean storm track has resulted in many members clobbering most of IA which I alluded to the other day.  The good ol' Chicago SLP magnet would bode well for those even into S WI if the SE trend continues.  Given the dynamics of this system and how tightly wrapped up it becomes, anyone just N/NW of the system is in the game to see some snow out of this as it intensifies rapidly.  This will be an interesting one to track.  Let's not forget those near the KC region bc they are def in the game as well.  

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It’s interesting how each run shows a stronger low yet its drifting SE. Would tend to think a more amped up system would go NW but that’s the beauty of wx. Someone in the upper MW is gonna get pounded that’s for sure.

The main energy is digging farther south into TX/OK which is resulting in a shift SE in the storm track.  Tanking -EPO is prob the culprit but I'd like to see if this is indeed a trend over the next several runs.

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The main energy is digging farther south into TX/OK which is resulting in a shift SE in the storm track.  Tanking -EPO is prob the culprit but I'd like to see if this is indeed a trend over the next several runs.

Thanks for the info Tom. . I haven’t had a lot of time to dive into this one yet. More fun tracking ahead regardless of where it ends up.

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NWS Hastings mentioned the farther southeast shift but did say they wouldn't be surprised if it came back northwest with time if it gets really wound up.  We'll see what plays out.  I agree that being to the north/northwest is the place to be with this as we have less chance of rain washing away a great snowpack here.

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Local ABC meteorologist that I really trust thinks the system will come back a little north and be slower than models are showing. He thinks it could be big with significant travel issues and lots of wind. We have had fairly light winds for these last 3 storms which is virtually unheard of around here. Should be interesting to watch the models and see what track it takes. In other news, “spring” sports start in Nebraska Monday. Glad I don’t coach those. Might be inside for a long time this Spring.

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Local ABC meteorologist that I really trust thinks the system will come back a little north and be slower than models are showing. He thinks it could be big with significant travel issues and lots of wind. We have had fairly light winds for these last 3 storms which is virtually unheard of around here. Should be interesting to watch the models and see what track it takes. In other news, “spring” sports start in Nebraska Monday. Glad I don’t coach those. Might be inside for a long time this Spring.

Yeah with how intense this Winter has been it's definitely strange to have seen no real blizzards in the Southern/Central Plains. We're due for one and I think this may be it.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Took a look at all the 51 EPS members and a shift SE in the mean storm track has resulted in many members clobbering most of IA which I alluded to the other day.  The good ol' Chicago SLP magnet would bode well for those even into S WI if the SE trend continues.  Given the dynamics of this system and how tightly wrapped up it becomes, anyone just N/NW of the system is in the game to see some snow out of this as it intensifies rapidly.  This will be an interesting one to track.  Let's not forget those near the KC region bc they are def in the game as well.  

 

I sure hope this can move SE some more and we can get snow here. I have a buddy who I snowmobile with, and every time he can ride it's after the good snow and right after it rains.

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GFS has been insisting on a western GL's cutter...and a monstrous one...I could already see this becoming a beast with widespread winter alerts accompanied by wind advisories.  Sub 980mb storm???  Hope so, it would fit the bill and check off the 1st blizzard I've been predicting by mid March.  

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Nam is not picking up the widespread moisture like the others. Interesting it has all the hallmarks of a monster. Might be factoring the severe weather potential.

That is definitely a concern that models love to not pick up. We saw it with this storm. If NAM is picking it up, it is something to consider for sure.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Pretty much goes from the same spot at HR 72 that both the CMC and GFS (Panhandle of OK) to near TRaverse City,MI at HR 96. (where both the GFS and CMC end up The devil is in the details as the CMC takes a much different path than the GFS. No clue on the UKIE with only 24 hr  increments.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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