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March 2019 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 22 February 2019 - 12:57 PM

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As we begin to count down the days of meteorological Winter, which has left many snow enthusiasts across the northern tier of our Sub quite thrilled with how the 2nd half of the season has performed.  Will this relentless winter pattern continue into the 1st month of meteorological Spring???  How severe can this month get??  Top 5 coldest open to the month???  Is Severe Weather going to impact our southern members???  Are there more records to be shattered this month???  Will Spring ever arrive....???  So many questions to be answered as we set our sights closer each and every day towards the Spring Solstice this month.

 

What are the trends in the CFSv2???  Trending bolder with the cold...

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201903.gif

 

 

 

 

 

The latest CPC Outlook for March has a rather cold look across the heartland...

 

 

 

 

 

 


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#2
gimmesnow

Posted 22 February 2019 - 02:38 PM

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Just as long as this rain/ice doesn't clobber us too bad here I will have a few more weeks of snowboarding, if all goes well. Just need to make it through tomorrow.


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#3
Grizzcoat

Posted 22 February 2019 - 09:06 PM

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That is one nasty Arctic shot for early March on the GFS-- 498 thicknesses into IOWA on March 3rd-4th? That is unheard of.  It's 1962 cold (-22F on March 1st in DSM- one of the top 5 weather records I know off) . 


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#4
Tom

Posted 23 February 2019 - 03:38 AM

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That is one nasty Arctic shot for early March on the GFS-- 498 thicknesses into IOWA on March 3rd-4th? That is unheard of.  It's 1962 cold (-22F on March 1st in DSM- one of the top 5 weather records I know off) . 

"Polar Vortex Party" part 2???  A memorable open to March '19 is in the works...besides the cold, I hope the GFS is right and is seeing the lead system that bombs out across the GL's next weekend.  It's been the most consistent of the past couple days and it's ensembles are showing more and more members with big hits which then unload the vicious shot of cold.  This would prob surpass March '14 or '15 in terms of cold and rival '62???  


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#5
Tom

Posted 23 February 2019 - 04:05 AM

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06z GEFS have been consistently advertising a southern Plains system tracking up towards the GL's and phasing/bombing across the GL's region next weekend.  Back-to-Back weekend Majors????  I'm trying to dial in to see if this is the part of the LRC which produced the late Nov Blizzard and it seems to be lining up.  The Euro is showing something similar but a couple days later.  Something big is brewing.


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#6
Clinton

Posted 23 February 2019 - 05:43 AM

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06z GEFS have been consistently advertising a southern Plains system tracking up towards the GL's and phasing/bombing across the GL's region next weekend.  Back-to-Back weekend Majors????  I'm trying to dial in to see if this is the part of the LRC which produced the late Nov Blizzard and it seems to be lining up.  The Euro is showing something similar but a couple days later.  Something big is brewing.

I believe this is the part of the pattern that produced the late Nov blizzard and it is due back the first couple days of March.  Then followed by the return of the PV.  You have this month nailed down.  This will be our version of March Madness!


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#7
indianajohn

Posted 23 February 2019 - 08:26 AM

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if it pans will this finally include us? 

 

06z GEFS have been consistently advertising a southern Plains system tracking up towards the GL's and phasing/bombing across the GL's region next weekend.  Back-to-Back weekend Majors????  I'm trying to dial in to see if this is the part of the LRC which produced the late Nov Blizzard and it seems to be lining up.  The Euro is showing something similar but a couple days later.  Something big is brewing.


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#8
SE Wisconsin

Posted 23 February 2019 - 02:06 PM

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Interesting comments from the afternoon MKX AFD.

 

"We are keeping an eye on a more amplified system that may develop
over the Midwest next weekend. The intensity of the low pressure
system will depend on how well the northern and southern stream
mid levels phase. This looks like a similar setup to the one that
is currently affecting us. The exception is that the low track
looks a little farther southeast which would put southern WI in
more accumulating snow. We still have a long time to go before we
can say anything for certain, but the 12z runs of the ECMWF and
GFS both have it. The Canadian remains unphased and thus keeps us

dry."



#9
Cfweather

Posted 23 February 2019 - 03:01 PM

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Interesting comments from the afternoon MKX AFD.
 
"We are keeping an eye on a more amplified system that may develop
over the Midwest next weekend. The intensity of the low pressure
system will depend on how well the northern and southern stream
mid levels phase. This looks like a similar setup to the one that
is currently affecting us. The exception is that the low track
looks a little farther southeast which would put southern WI in
more accumulating snow. We still have a long time to go before we
can say anything for certain, but the 12z runs of the ECMWF andGFS both have it. The Canadian remains unphased and thus keeps us
dry."


DMX mentions it too but basically just says it needs to be watched.

#10
Niko

Posted 23 February 2019 - 04:30 PM

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if it pans will this finally include us? 

Hopefully :unsure:


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#11
Iowawx

Posted 23 February 2019 - 08:18 PM

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00Z GFS still has a really good storm with snow here next weekend. 



#12
Hawkeye

Posted 23 February 2019 - 10:41 PM

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It appears the 00z Euro has really amped up the weekend storm, much more than previous runs.  The one problem for Iowa is it seems to be a late developer.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#13
Hawkeye

Posted 23 February 2019 - 11:14 PM

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D0Jx34xWsAE14Gp.png


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season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#14
Grizzcoat

Posted 23 February 2019 - 11:51 PM

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*
POPULAR

The cold shown in the March 2-3rd to March 5-6th period is EPIC on the Euro. No getting around it. At the very least; it needs to be mentioned  in some AFD's soon. If not- (and it's the real deal) then you know your office is biased "Spring Fever" . I can't see in this pattern how it's not at least mentioned. Sure as H- E " L L an epic warm up would be mentioned - I know that from DMX.  

 

Since Jan 12th- this has turned into a great winter. But- the first half was a mild / warm - fart. So don't let them none educated peopled tell you it's been a "severe winter" - it hasn't been temp wise for sure- and not snow until recently. The Winter on a whole for many reading this has been snowy with avg temps.


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#15
Tom

Posted 24 February 2019 - 03:05 AM

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As Grizz mentioned, the severity of the cold being advertised during the 1st week of March is not to be taken lightly.  I may have been wrong on the idea that it may actually rival the cold that came with the late Jan Polar Vortex visit for parts of the Upper Midwest but moreso to those out farther west into the Plains where they escaped the "heart" of the cold in late January.  Daytime subzero highs for several days in a row????  March is roaring in like a Lion on steroids this year and what a way to kick start an opening to a month with another possible Major system that looks to phase/morph with the Polar Vortex!  What an epic pattern, one of which, you do not see often as history will be on the verge of being re-written yet again this cold season.

 

On a side note, remember last year when all we were hearing was the "Beast from the East" across Europe???  Well, it's been a full blown torch for the entire month of Feb all across Europe.  Nature tends to balance the weather patterns across the Globe.  Meanwhile, the historic stretch of winter most of us have been enduring across the central CONUS and North America has taken the spotlight which was a vivid vision I had in my mind prior to this season beginning.  Hint: (Next winter might be a repeat based on certain solar, oceanic, arctic cyclical patterns I've picked up on).

 

So, while the GFS has taken the lead on next weekends potential winter storm, the rest of the models are starting to follow suit.  I'd like to wait till today's 12z runs to pull the trigger on a storm thread as I'm pretty confident there will be another impactful winter storm to track this week.


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#16
Tom

Posted 24 February 2019 - 03:32 AM

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While a visit from the Polar Vortex is....in itself...rather spectacular, but to see it track so far south in latitude this late in the winter season is very fascinating.  Both GEFS/EPS ensembles are suggesting the Vortex to skirt our northern tier of the Sub across the GL's during the opening days of the month.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_8.png

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_30.png

 

 

 

It was not long ago, in late January, when we were tracking a well-timed and synchronized strong Clipper system that unleashed the "Great Jan '19 Cold Wave".  I believe we are about to embark on a similar set -up but with a strong southern wave phasing with the northern stream across the GL's region that will eventually "bomb" out again across the same region being impacted by the ongoing Blizzard we are enduring today.  

 

00z GEFS suggesting a very similar track as the lat November Blizzard that impacted the Plains/MW/GL's region.


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#17
LNK_Weather

Posted 24 February 2019 - 05:48 AM

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The cold shown in the March 2-3rd to March 5-6th period is EPIC on the Euro. No getting around it. At the very least; it needs to be mentioned  in some AFD's soon. If not- (and it's the real deal) then you know your office is biased "Spring Fever" . I can't see in this pattern how it's not at least mentioned. Sure as H- E " L L an epic warm up would be mentioned - I know that from DMX.  

 

Since Jan 12th- this has turned into a great winter. But- the first half was a mild / warm - fart. So don't let them none educated peopled tell you it's been a "severe winter" - it hasn't been temp wise for sure- and not snow until recently. The Winter on a whole for many reading this has been snowy with avg temps.

Euro isn't alone on this one, GFS is showing crazy cold temps too. Holy s**t, the lows these models are advertising would be record-setting even in January. 


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2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2 (Last: 4/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 1 (Last: 5/5/2019)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#18
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 February 2019 - 06:12 AM

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D0Jx34xWsAE14Gp.png


Oh my goodness. Some of those could break all time records.

#19
Niko

Posted 24 February 2019 - 06:20 AM

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Wild March coming (first half that is).


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#20
bud2380

Posted 24 February 2019 - 06:56 AM

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DVN mentioned this arctic outbreak a few days ago in their AFD. I’m not looking forward to this again. That’s just too cold. I’m ready for spring now. :)
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#21
LNK_Weather

Posted 24 February 2019 - 07:00 AM

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Strange to think we may get our seasonal low temps in March. I don't think that's ever happened here.

2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2 (Last: 4/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 1 (Last: 5/5/2019)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#22
Money

Posted 24 February 2019 - 07:12 AM

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Gfs has almost 2 feet of snow again in most of WI by next Sat/Sun

Def an active pattern continuing

#23
Cfweather

Posted 24 February 2019 - 07:24 AM

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Oh my goodness. Some of those could break all time records.


Aren’t those temps deviations from average? I know here in Iowa those may be daily records low temps but not all time by any means.

#24
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 February 2019 - 07:29 AM

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Aren’t those temps deviations from average? I know here in Iowa those may be daily records low temps but not all time by any means.


You’re correct, looked to quickly. Still amazing cold.

#25
Money

Posted 24 February 2019 - 08:13 AM

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Gfs gets the low down to 984 in eastern MI for next weekend

#26
Andie

Posted 24 February 2019 - 08:33 AM

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That's looking like a drier March for us. Not crazy about that considering we may have a very dry summer ahead.

High of 60* today. Climbing to 74* by Wed. And dry.

Attached File  IMG_3544.GIF   31.79KB   1 downloads
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#27
Tom

Posted 24 February 2019 - 08:50 AM

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That's looking like a drier March for us. Not crazy about that considering we may have a very dry summer ahead.

High of 60* today. Climbing to 74* by Wed. And dry.

attachicon.gifIMG_3544.GIF

 

I wouldn't hold your hats on a dry summer just yet, esp the early/mid part of Summer which I think will be very very wet across the central/southern Plains with high potential for Severe Wx.



#28
Hawkeye

Posted 24 February 2019 - 09:16 AM

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12z GFS still has the weekend storm, but the FV3 dropped it.  The UK has a decent system.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#29
Tom

Posted 24 February 2019 - 11:05 AM

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If the Euro is right, almost all of IA/S MN stay below zero for about 84+ hours starting next Sat pm.  Just an incredible amount of cold is in the cards and for a long duration.  #mindblown  #iceage  #glacier


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#30
Grizzcoat

Posted 24 February 2019 - 11:12 AM

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That Euro is almost unbelievable. That simplly has never happened before, even remotely. Bring it- I got plenty of firewood (really not, but I can make more).
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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#31
LNK_Weather

Posted 24 February 2019 - 11:14 AM

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Euro has had a hilarious 2M cold bias all Winter long. Yes we'll see well below normal temps, but don't take the numbers Euro is spitting out to heart.


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2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2 (Last: 4/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 1 (Last: 5/5/2019)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#32
Iowawx

Posted 24 February 2019 - 11:14 AM

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If the Euro is right, almost all of IA/S MN stay below zero for about 84+ hours starting next Sat pm.  Just an incredible amount of cold is in the cards and for a long duration.  #mindblown  #iceage  #glacier

How cold is it showing Tom? 

 

I am also wanting to know your thoughts about the snowfall potential as we head into March. Right now, my total snowfall here is 50.5", and I am only 9.5" away from beating the all time record for snowfall in Cedar Rapids which is 59.9", set back in 2008. Based on the trends, do you think I have a shot of getting that snow for March? Any potential dates that fit the LRC for storms? 



#33
Hawkeye

Posted 24 February 2019 - 11:37 AM

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The euro backed off the weekend system after last night's more amped-up run.  Still, it has a few inches falling across Iowa.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#34
East Dubzz

Posted 24 February 2019 - 11:47 AM

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I am extremely impressed with how much of our snowpack we have left.
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2019 Statistics (Starting 3/22/19)

-Total rainfall: 6.64"

-Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.16" (4/28)

-Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0


#35
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 February 2019 - 11:53 AM

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That Euro is almost unbelievable. That simplly has never happened before, even remotely. Bring it- I got plenty of firewood (really not, but I can make more).


I’m with ya. Let’s bring the goods and witness some unprecedented stuff. The odds of having another winter like this anytime soon are probably fairly slim. Might as well set some more records now.
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#36
Grizzcoat

Posted 24 February 2019 - 12:17 PM

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Even if the Euro is 5C too cold; it still smashes min / max records for several days in a row and soundly breaks most min records for at least a day or two. It's got the snow pack, that's for sure!!

2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#37
Grizzcoat

Posted 24 February 2019 - 12:24 PM

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The GFS has -22F on March 4th for DSM
Just not the Euro seeing this.

2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#38
Tom

Posted 24 February 2019 - 01:00 PM

Tom

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How cold is it showing Tom? 

 

I am also wanting to know your thoughts about the snowfall potential as we head into March. Right now, my total snowfall here is 50.5", and I am only 9.5" away from beating the all time record for snowfall in Cedar Rapids which is 59.9", set back in 2008. Based on the trends, do you think I have a shot of getting that snow for March? Any potential dates that fit the LRC for storms? 

IA has had the hot hand and based off what I'm seeing there are 2 systems this month that could put you over the top.  Next weekend and then the following week.  Heck, you may continue to add on additional snowfall throughout this month.  #historyinthemaking



#39
SnowDude83

Posted 24 February 2019 - 01:05 PM

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IA has had the hot hand and based off what I'm seeing there are 2 systems this month that could put you over the top.  Next weekend and then the following week.  Heck, you may continue to add on additional snowfall throughout this month.  #historyinthemaking




What a hack you are.

#40
Stormhunter87

Posted 24 February 2019 - 02:05 PM

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Not that we need the love here but it would be awesome to break the all time snowiest season. 1911/12 holds that title but we have a shot for it. Friday's system looks like a nice steady snowfall, but the one in two weeks is a toss up. Either way been a fun ride this winter and it doesn't appear to be over yet! :)

#41
jaster220

Posted 24 February 2019 - 02:50 PM

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Gfs has almost 2 feet of snow again in most of WI by next Sat/Sun

Def an active pattern continuing

 

What gave that away?


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#42
hlcater

Posted 24 February 2019 - 03:00 PM

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IA has had the hot hand and based off what I'm seeing there are 2 systems this month that could put you over the top.  Next weekend and then the following week.  Heck, you may continue to add on additional snowfall throughout this month.  #historyinthemaking

 

Please no. #makeseveregreatagain


2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#43
Tom

Posted 24 February 2019 - 03:03 PM

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Please no. #makeseveregreatagain


Unlike last year, I think this Spring will feature more severe wx opportunities. I’m thinking late March we could see at least one big outbreak from a larger system cutting NW up into the Dakotas/Upper MW.

#44
East Dubzz

Posted 24 February 2019 - 03:13 PM

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Please no. #makeseveregreatagain

 #WhyNotBoth


2019 Statistics (Starting 3/22/19)

-Total rainfall: 6.64"

-Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.16" (4/28)

-Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0


#45
Stormhunter87

Posted 24 February 2019 - 03:19 PM

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Unlike last year, I think this Spring will feature more severe wx opportunities. I’m thinking late March we could see at least one big outbreak from a larger system cutting NW up into the Dakotas/Upper MW.

I don't know how I'm feeling about severe wx this year. Last year was pretty much a bust. In fact the last couple years haven't been impressive. Honestly with the sun so quiet I think that will affect the chances.

#46
Tom

Posted 24 February 2019 - 03:56 PM

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I don't know how I'm feeling about severe wx this year. Last year was pretty much a bust. In fact the last couple years haven't been impressive. Honestly with the sun so quiet I think that will affect the chances.


Delayed Spring is looking likely this year again but I do see a warmer period 2nd half of the month. Southern Plains into the OV are the hot spots this season, esp early in the season. It’s gonna take a little while for the Plains/MW/GL’s to heat up in activity.
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#47
gimmesnow

Posted 24 February 2019 - 03:56 PM

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How long is the PV intrusion going to last? Things look great for the next little bit of snowboarding, but I know the end of PV usually means above average temps and wet.

 

Looks like there's going to be two weeks of good cold to keep the snow in shape. They never really bother going past St Pat's day weekend though, because people usually give up on Winter by then and are ready to put their skis and snowboards away. The one at the end of January only seemed to last about a week. That would probably make the weekend of the 10th the last one in SE Wisconsin for skiing and snowboarding. Gosh this season went by so fast.

 

November was some great man made snow, December sucked, but January and February have been awesome. For a midwestern snowboarder, I forgot what it was like to ride groomers for a while because there was a solid stretch of riding fresh natural snow like I've never had.

 

It's been a few years since a season ended and I felt this content. I went a lot this year, and had some really great snow. I'd love another powder day but I've had more this season than I have in the last 3 years combined.

 

EDIT: all it takes in March for my season to come to an abrupt end is one day in the 50s with rain, and it's all over dude.


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#48
Stormhunter87

Posted 24 February 2019 - 04:13 PM

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Delayed Spring is looking likely this year again but I do see a warmer period 2nd half of the month. Southern Plains into the OV are the hot spots this season, esp early in the season. It’s gonna take a little while for the Plains/MW/GL’s to heat up in activity.

That's a more favorable la Nina setup isn't it?

#49
Tom

Posted 24 February 2019 - 04:17 PM

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That's a more favorable la Nina setup isn't it?


Hasn’t that been the overall theme this season? Certainly not an atypical El Niño season as we’ve had a dominant SE Ridge. The LRC proved to be far more accurate than any analogs that were being thrown out there. Feb’s strong SE Ridge was the big surprise for a lot of peeps including me.
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#50
Stormhunter87

Posted 24 February 2019 - 04:22 PM

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Hasn’t that been the overall theme this season? Certainly not an atypical El Niño season as we’ve had a dominant SE Ridge. The LRC proved to be far more accurate than any analogs that were being thrown out there. Feb’s strong SE Ridge was the big surprise for a lot of peeps including me.

I would definitely agree with that this year really didn't follow analogs. Just interested to see if a pattern will develop with severe wx. I'm still thinking the sun output is really going to cap potential for storms. Anywho thanks for the input 😊