March 2019 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

On next week’s storm Hastings says way to complicated and models not consistent yet. They did say extremely slow moving and could affect the area from Monday- Wednesday, rain or snow or both. Noted it will need to be closely watched for impacts to the area.

[Grizzcoat]

Yeah. The amount of moisture with it is very concerning for hydro issues. If the GFS is right it's going to be a soupy mess.

[gimmesnow]

Looks like next week is the end of snowboarding for me. They made it to average close of season, though they had an early start. I won't complain too much, there was a totally epic stretch of powder days. Always sad to see the rain and know you'd have a good powder day if it were colder, but it's too warm and it'll hurt instead of help.

[westMJim]

As it looks like we might not be seeing much snow going forward here are the total seasonal snow fall totals from around Michigan. Grand Rapids 75.6” Muskegon 69.4” Holland ??? Lansing 36.9” Detroit 29.4” Flint 48.8” Saginaw 41.9” In norther lower Michigan

https://www.weather.gov/apx/snowgraph_ytd

Marquette 208.1” and now off to our west Chicago 41.5” (+10.6”) Rockford 51.2” (+19.0”) Milwaukee 48.4” (+8.7”) Madison 53.1” (+10.3”) Green Bay 67.5” (+25.2”)

[Stacsh]

As it looks like we might not be seeing much snow going forward here are the total seasonal snow fall totals from around Michigan. Grand Rapids 75.6” Muskegon 69.4” Holland ??? Lansing 36.9” Detroit 29.4” Flint 48.8” Saginaw 41.9” In norther lower Michigan

https://www.weather.gov/apx/snowgraph_ytd

Marquette 208.1” and now off to our west Chicago 41.5” (+10.6”) Rockford 51.2” (+19.0”) Milwaukee 48.4” (+8.7”) Madison 53.1” (+10.3”) Green Bay 67.5” (+25.2”)

 

I don't know about no more snow.  The arctic can't hold its cold air anymore.  Seasons are delayed by a month or so.  We had a big snowstorm last April.  Not sure this year will be any different. 

[westMJim]

I don't know about no more snow.  The arctic can't hold its cold air anymore.  Seasons are delayed by a month or so.  We had a big snowstorm last April.  Not sure this year will be any different. 

I did not mean to make it sound like there would not be any more snow this season. Yes we very well could see snow into April but I think the bulk of the snow has fallen for this season. up north they will see a lot more then we will in the next 4 to 6 weeks. I still feel that Grand Rapids has a good chance of reaching 80" or better for this season and I did not think that way in mid January. At that time I though it would be more like 50" 

[Stacsh]

I did not mean to make it sound like there would not be any more snow this season. Yes we very well could see snow into April but I think the bulk of the snow has fallen for this season. up north they will see a lot more then we will in the next 4 to 6 weeks. I still feel that Grand Rapids has a good chance of reaching 80" or better for this season and I did not think that way in mid January. At that time I though it would be more like 50" 

 

Gotcha.  Although the last run of the GFS has mid 60's reaching CMI next week lol.  

[gimmesnow]

I don't know about no more snow.  The arctic can't hold its cold air anymore.  Seasons are delayed by a month or so.  We had a big snowstorm last April.  Not sure this year will be any different. 

 

Around these parts, after the first week or so of March there's no point in getting any snow. Yeah, you can still get it, but you can't do anything with it. It's just something to look at.

 

Make a snow fort/snowman/etc, it's gone within a few days because of the sun angle.

Snowmobile trails are closed, even if there were enough snow to open them they won't open. The trails have to have their markings removed so the farmers can get ready for spring

Snowboarding/skiing is over

You can still do stuff on frozen lakes if they're still safe, but it doesn't matter if it snows or not.

 

The first week or two for Chicago/SE Wisconsin is the last chance to end Winter with a grande finale. After that, contrary to my name I start hoping there is no more snow so the lake can thaw out and I can get back out to sailing, jet skiiing, etc. Long springs and winters that drag out are actually the worst, because it stops the lakes from thawing and keeps me off of it.

 

I will go out if the water is in the 40s and the air temp is in the 50s. But the lake has to be thawed for that to happen. And given how cold it's been, it's going to be a while. Ideally I like to have a week or two between snowboarding and jet skiing, but there's no way that's going to happen this year.

[Niko]

Clouds are increasing as a storm system passes to our south thank goodness. We stay dry and not as cold, thankfully. Spring mode getting in full force now.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looking more and more like a lot of rain next week and not much of any snow in this area. Low would have to move farther south and east of current projections. We’ll see.

[Grizzcoat]

12Z Euro shows an inch of rain and low 40s middle of next week for MSP. I got family / friends and will be visiting. Not good.

[gimmesnow]

With all that snow cover, things are going to be ugly if we get rain warm with sudden melt. Even if there's not that much snow here, a lot of places with a ton of snow have their waterways drain down here.

[Stormhunter87]

With all that snow cover, things are going to be ugly if we get rain warm with sudden melt. Even if there's not that much snow here, a lot of places with a ton of snow have their waterways drain down here.

That's the concern here. We still have a pack of 12+ plus what was added today. Could get messy fast.

[St Paul Storm]

12Z Euro shows an inch of rain and low 40s middle of next week for MSP. I got family / friends and will be visiting. Not good.

You can come help me with the flooding. I’m in Roseville. Next week is not looking good...at all.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Canadian says a lot of Nebraska not out of the game yet for more snow next week. Much different look than the much rainier GFS for my area.

[Hawkeye]

I am soooooo looking forward to the surge of 50s late Wednesday.  We are likely done with snow, so I'd like to clear this glacier outa here.

[Minny_Weather]

0z Canadian says a lot of Nebraska not out of the game yet for more snow next week. Much different look than the much rainier GFS for my area.

Dome re-activates around here and we'd get rain still. I'd love to break the record but climo doesn't support it. I don't think I can bank on a cold enough April to support appreciable enough snow either. It took record-breaking cold to get us enough suppression to even get 2" in April last year.

[Wintersno]

LNK,will u stop being a baby! I'm tired of hearing about snow melt! Sun angle, and clouds! It's really becoming an eye sore!

[Hawkeye]

Interestingly, some models are now cutting the big Wednesday low so far west that not much rain falls over here.  We just get some light rain followed by a giant dry slot.  Tonight's UK has joined that scenario.

[Minny_Weather]

LNK,will u stop being a baby! I'm tired of hearing about snow melt! Sun angle, and clouds! It's really becoming an eye sore!

Are you the same person who was banned from this board for losing your temper that one night last Winter? Cuz this is fairly reminiscent of that. Same location and similar name. Exclamation points galore as well.

 

Also, I post nothing but observations and my opinion of said observation. Here is the post of mine I am guessing you are referring to:

 

 

 

Dome re-activates around here and we'd get rain still. I'd love to break the record but climo doesn't support it. I don't think I can bank on a cold enough April to support appreciable enough snow either. It took record-breaking cold to get us enough suppression to even get 2" in April last year

 

How is that me being a baby? Everything I said is true. It'd be nice if we broke the record but there's no support for that happening. And before some negative Nancy goes off on here for me daring to mention the beloved "dome", IT'S. A. JOKE. 

 

I also only complain about sun angle when it's February and we were supposed to be cloudy yet it ends up sunny, which happened multiple times. Now that it is March, I don't care anymore. I haven't mentioned sun angle in a negative context even since February 22, when we had one of those aforementioned unexpected sunny and above 32 days. So you have no justification in randomly bringing that up. There is some ridiculous notion on here that I complain about everything, which is false. I justifiably complain whenever things look unfavorable, which, by the way, everybody on here does as well! I have not once complained about this overall season. But that's too inconvenient, eh?

 

You're simply going off on me completely unprovoked here. My recent postings have all been reasonable and most people on here know that. Go yell at a brick wall or something.

[Minny_Weather]

Now in the interest of not derailing the thread again... 

 

Enjoying the nice snowpack cuz chances are this may be the last night we have it all. We'll have most of it into Saturday before the rainfall as well, probably, but this is just a true Winter scene. Once again, March 7th? 25.0*F.

[Money]

The dome joke is getting old and not even funny

 

55 inches of snow this year is probably better than everyone on here unless they live in the UP

[Minny_Weather]

The dome joke is getting old and not even funny

 

55 inches of snow this year is probably better than everyone on here unless they live in the UP

r/woooosh

[Grizzcoat]

EURO has it 60F in DSM next Wed evening and rain. When will the flood (flash?) watch be issued?

[Minny_Weather]

EURO has it 60F in DSM next Wed evening and rain. When will the flood (flash?) watch be issued?

Seriously. I'm actually concerned about hydro. Even once the snow goes away the ground isn't gonna be holding any water any time soon with the frost depth. Thankfully we've spent much of this cold spell with snow OTG so we only have about a foot of frost depth here but you spent longer in the cold with little or no snow in C IA so you're nearly 2 feet. 

[Hawkeye]

EURO has it 60F in DSM next Wed evening and rain.

 

The euro actually has Lincoln, Omaha, and Des Moines reaching about 62F.  Cedar Rapids peaks at 56F.  The dewpoint reaches the upper 40s over here.  Not surprisingly, the euro has our entire snowpack gone by Friday.

[Minny_Weather]

The euro actually has Lincoln, Omaha, and Des Moines reaching about 62F. Cedar Rapids peaks at 56F. The dewpoint reaches the upper 40s over here. Not surprisingly, the euro has our entire snowpack gone by Friday.

With average highs in the lower 50s and record temps in the 80s at that time of year, it's not an unreasonable time to get our first 60s in here anyway. In fact, it may even be later than average. There's no kept record for that so I'm not sure.

[Hawkeye]

With average highs in the lower 50s and record temps in the 80s at that time of year, it's not an unreasonable time to get our first 60s in here anyway. In fact, it may even be later than average. There's no kept record for that so I'm not sure.

 

Yep, our average high temp rises 0.5º every day in March.  Our avg next Wednesday is 45º.

[Tom]

It's been a historic open of weather across most of our Sub this month, in fact, most of the northern half has experienced the 2nd coldest start to the month of March.  The only place to have re-written history and take 1st place is SW MN!

 

 

 

This month is known to have wild swings in weather as Ol' Man Winter is on it's final legs while Spring begins to fight back.  Next week will feature one of those battles out ahead of another powerful storm that is poised to target the Dakotas/Upper MW with another snowstorm.  Meanwhile, the southern Plains will feature this seasons first Big Severe Wx Threat and our friend down near DFW may be right in the heart of the action.  Our friends in the "Mitt" and IN look to surge into the 60's next Thu which will be a nice "Spring Tease" before the colder pattern settles back in for the remainder of the month.

 

Interestingly, the 00z Euro keeps much of the snow pack across the southern edge of the #Glacier after the 2nd storm later next week.

 

 

[Tom]

I've taken the time to look back at my notes on the previous LRC cycles and the forthcoming pattern over the course of the next 1-2 weeks really resembles Cycle #1 almost to the "T" when looking at the 500mb pattern. For instance, if you go back 150 days from tomorrow you will all remember when the new LRC pattern was just evolving and I commented how this pattern was no where close to an El Nino as a stout SW Flow was developing and a major system began taking shape between Oct 8th-10th which came out of the Desert SW and cut up through the Plains and into the GL's region. A massive trowal-like feature was a eye popping trait along with deep moisture that came up from the GOM and we entered a stretch of very wet systems.

 

Some key features are showing up on the models which agree to the cyclical pattern: #1) Archipelago Vortex is forming around March 10th which is amazingly right on schedule when it formed back on Oct 12th. This Vortex began to grow in strength between Oct 12th-28th and rotated lobes of cold air into the Lower 48. #2) After the 2 back-to-back storms that hit between Oct 8th-15th, the 500mb amplified and a distinct NW Flow pattern locked in between Oct 16th-29th. We are about to go through these next 2 big storms and enter a long period of an amped pattern as the +PNA evolves which was first sniffed out by taking a gander at the 10mb height maps off the GEFS a few days ago. Notwithstanding, with the above mentioned pattern, something really peculiar is happening with the Stratosphere which will aid in the development of an anomalous Cross Polar Flow pattern across North America to close out this month. As we enter this NW Flow pattern, I'm expecting to see 1 or 2 strong hybrid Clippers and one of them I'm on the look out just before the Spring Solstice which could really tug down a very cold air mass for late in the season. Hence, my reasoning for record cold the other day which is on the table later this month and more late season snows.

 

If the predicted clipper does produce just before the Spring Solstice across the North, the attention then turns into the SW as another trough should enter the region around the 20th and develop into a strong S Plains storm between the 21st-23rd and track into the MW/GL's.

 

Alright, I think that's enough LR talk on this chilly and snowy Friday morning. Nature has decided to remind us that it's not done with winter as light snow is falling and we have a fresh coating on the ground. Current temp of 25F. Happy Friday all!

[St Paul Storm]

Interestingly, the 00z Euro keeps much of the snow pack across the southern edge of the #Glacier after the 2nd storm later next week.

Wow, that snow depth map shocks me to be honest. Temps near 40F and pouring rain are going to do some damage to the snowpack. But maybe with nighttime lows dipping back below freezing next week will sort of re-glacierize the pack making it that much tougher to melt? I’m kinda hoping that’s the case. In the Euro I trust.

 

The 6z GFS and FV3 have a depth here between 2-5” at hr 240. That’s quite a difference.

[gosaints]

Wow, that snow depth map shocks me to be honest. Temps near 40F and pouring rain are going to do some damage to the snowpack. But maybe with nighttime lows dipping back below freezing next week will sort of re-glacierize the pack making it that much tougher to melt? I’m kinda hoping that’s the case. In the Euro I trust.

 

The 6z GFS and FV3 have a depth here between 2-5” at hr 240. That’s quite a difference.

The pack will absord alot of moisture

[Niko]

Beautiful sunny morning w temps in the low teens (12F). Its been nearly 150 hours now below freezing, wow. Today will be the first time that temps rise above 32F in a very long time.

[Stacsh]

Long range( 8-14) looks much warmer across the nation than a few days ago.  I think we flip to spring pretty soon and stay there. Of course there will be cold days relative to average, but I think we actually get a spring in the midwest this year.  

[Minny_Weather]

Long range( 8-14) looks much warmer across the nation than a few days ago.  I think we flip to spring pretty soon and stay there. Of course there will be cold days relative to average, but I think we actually get a spring in the midwest this year.  

Better we flip sooner rather than later for severe wx sake.

[Grizzcoat]

Dang, that 12Z GFS had got heavy rain all the way to the North Shore of MN (Superior) for middle of next week. Also extremely heavy rain for W.IA and E.NE.

[Minny_Weather]

6" storm total QPF for Sioux City. That'd spell trouble for the Missouri River Basin, who is already looking at some pretty nasty flooding down the road WITHOUT having rain to deal with. This could easily turn into another 2011 if things keep going in this direction.

[Bryan1117]

6" storm total QPF for Sioux City. That'd spell trouble for the Missouri River Basin, who is already looking at some pretty nasty flooding down toe road WITHOUT having rain to deal with. This could easily turn into another 2011 if things keep going in this direction.

It definitely has that feel of a bad flood season upcoming. In 2011, the Missouri River flooded mostly due to record snowfall in the mountains of Montana and Wyoming (part of the Missouri River watershed).

 

This year those same mountains areas are running well above average snowpacks again, with almost the entire rest of the basin in the Dakotas, Iowa and Nebraska above average as well. Add any heavy rains or more snowpack from this point forward and there are likely going to be big problems over the next couple months.

[Stormhunter87]

Lol gfs showing a snow storm around the 20th.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro - Wednesday highs.