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March 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Gfs has almost 2 feet of snow again in most of WI by next Sat/Sun

 

Def an active pattern continuing

 

What gave that away?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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IA has had the hot hand and based off what I'm seeing there are 2 systems this month that could put you over the top.  Next weekend and then the following week.  Heck, you may continue to add on additional snowfall throughout this month.  #historyinthemaking

 

Please no. #makeseveregreatagain

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Please no. #makeseveregreatagain

Unlike last year, I think this Spring will feature more severe wx opportunities. I’m thinking late March we could see at least one big outbreak from a larger system cutting NW up into the Dakotas/Upper MW.

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Unlike last year, I think this Spring will feature more severe wx opportunities. I’m thinking late March we could see at least one big outbreak from a larger system cutting NW up into the Dakotas/Upper MW.

I don't know how I'm feeling about severe wx this year. Last year was pretty much a bust. In fact the last couple years haven't been impressive. Honestly with the sun so quiet I think that will affect the chances.
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I don't know how I'm feeling about severe wx this year. Last year was pretty much a bust. In fact the last couple years haven't been impressive. Honestly with the sun so quiet I think that will affect the chances.

Delayed Spring is looking likely this year again but I do see a warmer period 2nd half of the month. Southern Plains into the OV are the hot spots this season, esp early in the season. It’s gonna take a little while for the Plains/MW/GL’s to heat up in activity.

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How long is the PV intrusion going to last? Things look great for the next little bit of snowboarding, but I know the end of PV usually means above average temps and wet.

 

Looks like there's going to be two weeks of good cold to keep the snow in shape. They never really bother going past St Pat's day weekend though, because people usually give up on Winter by then and are ready to put their skis and snowboards away. The one at the end of January only seemed to last about a week. That would probably make the weekend of the 10th the last one in SE Wisconsin for skiing and snowboarding. Gosh this season went by so fast.

 

November was some great man made snow, December sucked, but January and February have been awesome. For a midwestern snowboarder, I forgot what it was like to ride groomers for a while because there was a solid stretch of riding fresh natural snow like I've never had.

 

It's been a few years since a season ended and I felt this content. I went a lot this year, and had some really great snow. I'd love another powder day but I've had more this season than I have in the last 3 years combined.

 

EDIT: all it takes in March for my season to come to an abrupt end is one day in the 50s with rain, and it's all over dude.

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Delayed Spring is looking likely this year again but I do see a warmer period 2nd half of the month. Southern Plains into the OV are the hot spots this season, esp early in the season. It’s gonna take a little while for the Plains/MW/GL’s to heat up in activity.

That's a more favorable la Nina setup isn't it?
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That's a more favorable la Nina setup isn't it?

Hasn’t that been the overall theme this season? Certainly not an atypical El Niño season as we’ve had a dominant SE Ridge. The LRC proved to be far more accurate than any analogs that were being thrown out there. Feb’s strong SE Ridge was the big surprise for a lot of peeps including me.

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Hasn’t that been the overall theme this season? Certainly not an atypical El Niño season as we’ve had a dominant SE Ridge. The LRC proved to be far more accurate than any analogs that were being thrown out there. Feb’s strong SE Ridge was the big surprise for a lot of peeps including me.

 

Gotta keep us guessing, eh?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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March will be potentially very interesting in terms of storms for peeps on here. Looks stormy and cold.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I’m saying let’s get a little more snow this month, but then start to transition to severe storms / spring by the end.

Yeah once this snowpack is gone, I'm officially welcoming Spring. With temps that models are advertising though, it'll be hard to melt any of this off even with full March sun. We could easily go into the 2nd week of March with over a foot on the ground. That'd be crazy.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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So, the Euro lost the weekend storm while the GFS still has it, GGEM is a no show as well and UKIE is rather weak....This would be a big win for the GFS if the storm does in fact form this weekend.  Let's see where the models trend today.

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It's wild to see the 00z GEFS still suggesting -10's/-20's across the Upper Midwest for days later this weekend into next week....very impressive signal for a long duration cold snap.  The higher sun angle in March will help alleviate the bite from the cold.

 

gfs-ens_T2m_us_23.png

 

gfs-ens_T2m_us_27.png 

gfs-ens_T2m_us_31.png

 

gfs-ens_T2m_us_35.png

 

 

gfs-ens_T2m_us_39.png

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I'd like to chime in on some LR thoughts on storm potential(s) through the first couple weeks this month as an incredibly strong jet stream for the time of year continues to rage.  The jury is still out there if the weekend storm becomes a formidable storm or not but trends in the EPS are suggesting a minimal impacting system across the MW/GL's, while the GEFS still continue to show something of interest.  Following this period, the central/southern Plains into the S MW states are in the position to see some snow as the pattern becomes suppressed by the magnitude of the cold coming.  The period between the 3rd-4th is on my watch for the KC region to see more snow as well as neighboring states down south.

 

Once this system passes on by, the pattern becomes very conducive for strong storms coming out of the SW between the 8th-15th and I'm expecting a couple strong systems to develop across the S Plains and track into the MW/GL's region during this period.  Cold air will be fully entrenched during the aforementioned period so expect to see more winter storms, another possible Blizzard is on the table during this period. If this pattern goes into the extreme, which I fully expect it to, some places across the Plains will yet again set snowfall records this month and probably carry on into parts of the MW region.  What I'm seeing and envisioning is something I've never been able to track in terms of wx models/etc during the month of March.  It's really incredible and intriguing what is on the table as nature continues to show signs of winter not letting up anytime soon.

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I'd like to chime in on some LR thoughts on storm potential(s) through the first couple weeks this month as an incredibly strong jet stream for the time of year continues to rage.  The jury is still out there if the weekend storm becomes a formidable storm or not but trends in the EPS are suggesting a minimal impacting system across the MW/GL's, while the GEFS still continue to show something of interest.  Following this period, the central/southern Plains into the S MW states are in the position to see some snow as the pattern becomes suppressed by the magnitude of the cold coming.  The period between the 3rd-4th is on my watch for the KC region to see more snow as well as neighboring states down south.

 

Once this system passes on by, the pattern becomes very conducive for strong storms coming out of the SW between the 8th-15th and I'm expecting a couple strong systems to develop across the S Plains and track into the MW/GL's region during this period.  Cold air will be fully entrenched during the aforementioned period so expect to see more winter storms, another possible Blizzard is on the table during this period. If this pattern goes into the extreme, which I fully expect it to, some places across the Plains will yet again set snowfall records this month and probably carry on into parts of the MW region.  What I'm seeing and envisioning is something I've never been able to track in terms of wx models/etc during the month of March.  It's really incredible and intriguing what is on the table as nature continues to show signs of winter not letting up anytime soon.

Seems like some pretty solid wishcasting here from the biggest hack I’ve seen on weather forums/Twitter. Congrats on being right for a few weeks but you were bound to eventually be correct when all you ever call for is “historic” cold and snow.

 

Hopefully folks outside of this goofy group of rejects don’t take a thing that comes out of your bald head seriously. You, sir, are fake news.

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Seems like some pretty solid wishcasting here from the biggest hack I’ve seen on weather forums/Twitter. Congrats on being right for a few weeks but you were bound to eventually be correct when all you ever call for is “historic” cold and snow.

 

Hopefully folks outside of this goofy group of rejects don’t take a thing that comes out of your bald head seriously. You, sir, are fake news.

Looks like the troll from Michigan has surfaced again!  Nice way to start the morning off, eh???  We all, collectively, as a group, must obviously be doing something right over here for you to continue trying to come on here and read what we have to say.  LOL...#winning  

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Looks like the troll from Michigan has surfaced again!  Nice way to start the morning off, eh???  We all, collectively, as a group, must obviously be doing something right over here for you to continue trying to come on here and read what we have to say.  LOL...#winning

 

No trolling here, bro, I 100 percent stand by everything I post. Especially you being a wishcasting hack.

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No trolling here, bro, I 100 percent stand by everything I post. Especially you being a wishcasting hack.

Dude, your obviously a newbee on here and don't have a clue what your talking about.  I'm far from a wischaster, even when tracking winter storms that don't have my back yard in the game so don't even go there.  

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Is IP banning a thing on here?

They definitely should do it for you, if so. Give you a chance in life.

 

When I was in college — I was out having fun, chasing girls and making memories. You’re posting snow totals on a weather forum 24/7. Someone in charge here needs to save you from yourself before you become Tom Jr.

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They definitely should do it for you, if so. Give you a chance in life.

 

When I was in college — I was out having fun, chasing girls and making memories. You’re posting snow totals on a weather forum 24/7. Someone in charge here needs to save you from yourself before you become Tom Jr.

:lol:

 

Tom, I hope you're not taking anything this basement dweller says personally

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Seems like some pretty solid wishcasting here from the biggest hack I’ve seen on weather forums/Twitter. Congrats on being right for a few weeks but you were bound to eventually be correct when all you ever call for is “historic” cold and snow.

 

Hopefully folks outside of this goofy group of rejects don’t take a thing that comes out of your bald head seriously. You, sir, are fake news.

Go back to your video games and weed Cupcake. Really pathetic your life has become so depressing that you troll a weather forum. Haha. You are such a loser.
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They definitely should do it for you, if so. Give you a chance in life.

 

When I was in college — I was out having fun, chasing girls and making memories. You’re posting snow totals on a weather forum 24/7. Someone in charge here needs to save you from yourself before you become Tom Jr.

I’m surprised your asylum allows patients to have access to the internet.

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Currently mostly cloudy and much colder w temps at 15F w snowshowers around. Ground has whiten up at least w these snowbursts that I have been receiving. Hopefully, I get my snowpack back again this upcoming week as multiple snowevents are in the cards.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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