March 2019 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

[East Dubzz]

GFS still has the Friday, but it’s not as strong as last run. Still a solid widespread 2-5” event.

[Hawkeye]

Hopefully, we can add a few inches of snow through the weekend.  Overall, it's looking cold but mostly dry.  By mid March, when the cold, dry pattern breaks, it'll become increasingly difficult to get good snow down here.  Mid March onward is Dakotas/Minnesota snow season.

[Tony]

The weekend storm is fizzling out which is no surprise. Just another weak wave it's looking like.

[Niko]

Its only Monday. Still several days to go until the weekend storm. Plenty can and will change.

[BrianJK]

Seems like a pretty solid analysis here from the biggest contributor I’ve seen on weather forums/Twitter. Congrats on being right more times than not.

 

Hopefully folks outside of this awesome group don’t miss a thing that you post on here. You, sir, are the real deal.  Me on the other hand, well I'm a waste of life.  I'm one of those losers you hear about who have no friends and have to make multiple online weather forum ID's.  Pretty pathetic, but hey, that's just who I am.

 

Couldn't agree with you more.

[Tom]

Nearly everyone on here is in the game for some hits through the 12th of the month.  Let's make a run for 60%+ snow cover across the CONUS in the month of March.  

[Tom]

Just ridiculous cold centering across the heartland where the Glacier will continue to grow.  Models keep getting colder and colder.  Historic stuff right here.  BTW, both GEFS/EPS are picking up on a Sun/Mon system for the central/southern Plains/S MW which will more than likely expand the snow coverage.

 

[Stormhunter87]

Nearly everyone on here is in the game for some hits through the 12th of the month. Let's make a run for 60%+ snow cover across the CONUS in the month of March.

Glacier confirmed for eastern Nebraska!

[Stormhunter87]

Also watching that system around the 12th-13th. GFS was running it hot but if it plays out it would be blizzard 2.0 here.

[Tom]

Also watching that system around the 12th-13th. GFS was running it hot but if it plays out it would be blizzard 2.0 here.

The potential for a biggie is for the following weekend 8th-10th which the EPS is starting to sniff out as are the GEFS.

[Stormhunter87]

The potential for a biggie is for the following weekend 8th-10th which the EPS is starting to sniff out as are the GEFS.

Oh I didn't notice that one. But then again those ensembles you posted did seem high for totals.

[jaster220]

The potential for a biggie is for the following weekend 8th-10th which the EPS is starting to sniff out as are the GEFS.

 

Tell me it doesn't run over my head or north of me..

[james1976]

Couldn't agree with you more.

LMAO good one

[Minny_Weather]

Euro weeklies suggest below normal temps for the Central/Northern Plains/Upper Midwest throughout the entire run. Only as we get into April do we see fairly equal chances with warm/cold anomalies.

[jaster220]

Euro weeklies suggest below normal temps for the Central/Northern Plains/Upper Midwest throughout the entire run. Only as we get into April do we see fairly equal chances with warm/cold anomalies.

 

With this Nino acting just like last year's Nina, I fully expect more bad news wrt delayed #realspringwx. Last April 16th I was downtown GR and it looked and felt every bit like the middle of winter. It was winter's last gasp, but still very ugly for SMI in mid April. 

[gimmesnow]

Nearly everyone on here is in the game for some hits through the 12th of the month.  Let's make a run for 60%+ snow cover across the CONUS in the month of March.  

 

I wonder what's going to happen. That weekend is the end of the season bash at Alpine Valley. But it's not going to be much of an end of season if it's going to be cold and we're going to have a powder day. Usually I'm snowboarding through puddles and slush and there's not really any actual snow by that weekend. And they still have a solid 22+ inches of base (though everything under the top 6 inches is solid ice). I hope people still keep going, there's potential for this to become one of the longest snowboard seasons at AV ever.

[Niko]

I can see the first 2 weeks of March being active and brutal.

[jaster220]

I can see the first 2 weeks of March being active and brutal.

 

Can't remember the last time March came in like a true Lion. Even 13-14 took it's foot off the accelerator during that time-frame. This was over due to be balanced so here we go! 

 

Have to stand corrected. 7 of first 8 days of March 2014 were below freezing highs, snowy then a few warm days followed by the last big storm dumping a solid 8.5" on the 12th. Now THAT was a winter!

[Niko]

Can't remember the last time March came in like a true Lion. Even 13-14 took it's foot off the accelerator during that time-frame. This was over due to be balanced so here we go! 

Yes, this time around, March has great potential to possibly be epic for some peeps on here (might be us included).

[Niko]

Can't remember the last time March came in like a true Lion. Even 13-14 took it's foot off the accelerator during that time-frame. This was over due to be balanced so here we go! 

 

Have to stand corrected. 7 of first 8 days of March 2014 were below freezing highs, snowy then a few warm days followed by the last big storm dumping a solid 8.5" on the 12th. Now THAT was a winter!

Buddy, that was a Winter from heaven. I mean, it started snowing from late November and it just kept snowing and snowing and snowing and snowing till April 11th. On that date (April 11th) is when Detroit finally broke the all time record snowfall. We had receive just ova an inch and that is all we needed to break the record. Cannot remember when the last time I saw grass that Winter. At least 90% of all storms that season were snowstorms.

[Tom]

Based off the latest trends, the weekend wave is disappearing around here and tracking farther north across MN/WI which leaves a lot of us around here high and dry.  Meanwhile, the trends in the models are for a much more larger system to take shape across the central Plains/S MW as the models were to quick to jump on the  Fri/Sat wave but instead having the 2nd wave late in the weekend becoming the larger scale event I was looking for.  Those of you down in KS/MO are in line to see a pretty healthy snow event for March standards.

 

The maps below are the 00z Euro/EPS/Control....

 

 

 

 

[Clinton]

Based off the latest trends, the weekend wave is disappearing around here and tracking farther north across MN/WI which leaves a lot of us around here high and dry.  Meanwhile, the trends in the models are for a much more larger system to take shape across the central Plains/S MW as the models were to quick to jump on the  Fri/Sat wave but instead having the 2nd wave late in the weekend becoming the larger scale event I was looking for.  Those of you down in KS/MO are in line to see a pretty healthy snow event for March standards.

 

The maps below are the 00z Euro/EPS/Control....

If we get the snow I think we have a great chance to set some record lows next week.

[Tom]

If we get the snow I think we have a great chance to set some record lows next week.

It's becoming increasingly likely there will be snow records broken across the Plains states this month based off what I'm seeing.  Interestingly, the EPS is becoming more bullish during the 8th-12th period and seeing the LRC's storm systems traverse the region.  Once we get passed the "zonal" ish flow this coming cold period, the flow is expected to turn out of the SW and this is when a very wet period evolves.  It's crazy to think that places out in the Plains and S MW could actually develop a snow pack in the month of March!  #MarchMadness  

[CentralNebWeather]

Around here the Friday wave has pretty much fizzled out.  Looks like Saturday night into Sunday has some promise, especially south of I80 into Kansas which would help me out to put a little more snow on top of our glacier.  Local Mets. keep talking about this unprecedented cold and how it looks to be entrenched through the middle of March at least, with several larger storm chances as Tom has mentioned.

[St Paul Storm]

The much anticipated official rollout of the FV3 upgrade has been postponed indefinitely because of how badly its sucked this winter. Uh oh. And with the King upgrade coming in June, there’s going to be little need to look at any other US models. What a joke.

[Tom]

The much anticipated official rollout of the FV3 upgrade has been postponed indefinitely because of how badly its sucked this winter. Uh oh. And with the King upgrade coming in June, there’s going to be little need to look at any other US models. What a joke.

That’s really sad and prob an indicator of the lack of technology our gov’t has invested into the modeling. They need to do a better job and start investing more effort and money into these models.

[Stormhunter87]

That’s really sad and prob an indicator of the lack of technology our gov’t has invested into the modeling. They need to do a better job and start investing more effort and money into these models.

With the updated GOES satellites I was hoping that the models would be improved as well.

[East Dubzz]

That’s really sad and prob an indicator of the lack of technology our gov’t has invested into the modeling. They need to do a better job and start investing more effort and money into these models.

#MakeAmericanModelsGreatAgain

[East Dubzz]

Here’s the official statement on that, by the way. Nothing we didn’t know, but still interesting:

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf

[Clinton]

GFS looks like it's step and step with the Euro and Canadian on the Sunday system.

[indianajohn]

        This pretty Much Sums up the winter of 2018-2019 for us south of Chicago.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

Pretty much all snow for most of Iowa has vanished through the next ten days.  Very cold, but bone dry is pretty disppointing.  We had a shot at records around here, but now that is in jeopardy.  When the pattern becomes more active again we'll probably get a bunch of rain as lows cut through Iowa.  I'm sitting at 47.9" for the season.  It would be pretty disappointing if we get stuck here and can't even break 50".

[Niko]

GFS looks like it's step and step with the Euro and Canadian on the Sunday system.

I like it!

[Tony]

GFS looks like it's step and step with the Euro and Canadian on the Sunday system.

Once March rolls in I really look forward to big storms as the smaller ones just fade away as fast as they come. Looking to the long range does not seem like there are any biggies popping up as of yet.

[Clinton]

Once March rolls in I really look forward to big storms as the smaller ones just fade away as fast as they come. Looking to the long range does not seem like there are any biggies popping up as of yet.

I look for a biggie to show up around the 8th or 9th, I think Tom mentioned this earlier.

[Niko]

I look for a biggie to show up around the 8th or 9th, I think Tom mentioned this earlier.

I like the dates from 9-11th. Some potential there for a big dog.

[jaster220]

It's becoming increasingly likely there will be snow records broken across the Plains states this month based off what I'm seeing.  Interestingly, the EPS is becoming more bullish during the 8th-12th period and seeing the LRC's storm systems traverse the region.  Once we get passed the "zonal" ish flow this coming cold period, the flow is expected to turn out of the SW and this is when a very wet period evolves.  It's crazy to think that places out in the Plains and S MW could actually develop a snow pack in the month of March!  #MarchMadness  

 

Might put '59-60 to shame?

[james1976]

Waterloo just needs 2.4" for record so I hope that at least happens.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS continues the snowy conditions through the middle of March, especially Western and Central Nebraska into Northern Kansas.