2/26 - 2/28 Multi Wave Event

[Hawkeye]

12z euro through Saturday - It would be nice to get a couple inches of fluff on top of our glacier before the cold plunges into the region.

 

[St Paul Storm]

MSP is at 36” for the month. These waves should get us to 40”, and it would tie for the 3rd snowiest month on record. The record of 46” is probably safe unless the weekend system takes off.

[Tom]

12z EPS looking good for WI/MI peeps...

 

 

[Cfweather]

Waterloo is at 57.1" on the season. The record is 59.4" in 61-62 season. Might have a chance at breaking it this week!

I want to “like” this on one hand and on the other hand I want to cry.....

[Jaycee]

12z EPS looking good for WI/MI peeps...

 

I think I seriously cursed Chicago i'm so sorry Illinois peeps don't hate me. 

[Tom]

I think I seriously cursed Chicago i'm so sorry Illinois peeps don't hate me. 

Nah, it is what it is....you can't dwell about it...if we don't get any meaningful snow before this brutal cold settles in then it'll be just a waste of cold IMO.

[Tony]

I think I seriously cursed Chicago i'm so sorry Illinois peeps don't hate me. 

 

Nah, it is what it is....you can't dwell about it...if we don't get any meaningful snow before this brutal cold settles in then it'll be just a waste of cold IMO.

Sorry, but can't let you off that easy...Tom is being too kind to you but someone needs to pay for this!

[Jaycee]

Sorry, but can't let you off that easy...Tom is being too kind to you but someone needs to pay for this!

 

http://www.droidforums.net/data/photos/l/4/4203-1275633479-bc90c4c1be0906495e290f48997c460e.jpg

 

 

I'm sorryyyyyy  

 

I think i might have paid for it by having to live through the winters in Nebraska the past 10 years, only for it to be an amazing one when I leave. 

[Tony]

http://www.droidforums.net/data/photos/l/4/4203-1275633479-bc90c4c1be0906495e290f48997c460e.jpg

 

 

I'm sorryyyyyy

 

I think i might have paid for it by having to live through the winters in Nebraska the past 10 years, only for it to be an amazing one when I leave. 

Around here we have a saying "wait till next year" but hopefully we don't have to wait a hundred years!

[jaster220]

MSP is at 36” for the month. These waves should get us to 40”, and it would tie for the 3rd snowiest month on record. The record of 46” is probably safe unless the weekend system takes off.

 

What month holds the record?? It's Dec 2000 here. Oh, and you'll be getting dangerously close to beating my 2nd best month of Jan 2014 

[jaster220]

12z EPS looking good for WI/MI peeps...

 

At least for some of us. Amazing little "hole" showing on most maps here locally. Remember, you never want to be outside the donut hole 3 days out. 

[jaster220]

Southern WI looking good with the Friday wave but not too sure what to expect for N.IL. as it can go either way for us.

 

And it seems like it will find a way (around us). That dude complaining that another decent snow could set the all-time seasonal record  . He could have it much worse. Nuisance hits and a lack-luster season plus cold and spring no-where in sight 

[jaster220]

Sorry, but can't let you off that easy...Tom is being too kind to you but someone needs to pay for this!

 

Tell me you're only half serious about that 

[jaster220]

Around here we have a saying "wait till next year" but hopefully we don't have to wait a hundred years!

 

Around here, the saying is "nothing good ever follows a snowy November!! #$@#$&%"

[Niko]

So far I am in the 3-5"+ range for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

[Grizzcoat]

What month holds the record?? It's Dec 2000 here. Oh, and you'll be getting dangerously close to beating my 2nd best month of Jan 2014

Nov 1991. 46.9"

[jaster220]

Nov 1991. 46.9"

 

Ah, the Halloween bliz kicked-off the record month up there? Did not remember that since it was long before I had internet, let alone knew of wx forums or data sites. Interesting 

[jaster220]

So far I am in the 3-5"+ range for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

 

Got map??

[Niko]

Got map??

Got somethin better for ya....

 

NOAA:

No problems with moisture and forcing Tuesday night-Wednesday as

copious amount of upper level energy/PV along the northern

Washington/Montana border ejects and leads to digging upper level

trough tracking through the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Pretty

good moisture will surge northward from the southern Plains tonight,

but tending to fold over in more west-east aligned fashion over the

Ohio Valley Tuesday Night. Still, should be able to advect 3 g/kg of

specific humidity up near I-69 corridor with up 4 g/kg near the

southern Michigan border along with PW Values slightly above half an

inch. Near optimal thermal profiles in the DGZ with corresponding

isentropic lift/mid level FGEN still looks to be focused north of M-

59. With the good snow ratios, should be able to generate a solid 3-

5 inches of snow as the low level circuation/cyclogensis tracks

through Wednesday afternoon. Cross sections also indicating

increasing area/depth of negative EPV in the mid levels during

Wednesday and thus possible to see higher end 6 inch totals.

[St Paul Storm]

What month holds the record?? It's Dec 2000 here. Oh, and you'll be getting dangerously close to beating my 2nd best month of Jan 2014

I saw Grizz got you your answer. I wasn’t living here then, but I remember watching TWC in Chicago and being in awe. Pretty incredible that November is the record snowiest month.

[Grizzcoat]

I saw Grizz got you your answer. I wasn’t living here then, but I remember watching TWC in Chicago and being in awe. Pretty incredible that November is the record snowiest month.

The incredible thing about is all 28" (or so) inches of the Halloween Blizzard ( I believe at least 8" of it occurred in OCT) melted by about the 12th or 14th of NOV. Than a few nickle and dimers before Thanksgiving when 17" fell. I remember it like it was yesterday because of the Halloween Blizzard and that I had just lost my father earlier that year.

[jaster220]

Got somethin better for ya....

 

NOAA:

No problems with moisture and forcing Tuesday night-Wednesday as

copious amount of upper level energy/PV along the northern

Washington/Montana border ejects and leads to digging upper level

trough tracking through the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Pretty

good moisture will surge northward from the southern Plains tonight,

but tending to fold over in more west-east aligned fashion over the

Ohio Valley Tuesday Night. Still, should be able to advect 3 g/kg of

specific humidity up near I-69 corridor with up 4 g/kg near the

southern Michigan border along with PW Values slightly above half an

inch. Near optimal thermal profiles in the DGZ with corresponding

isentropic lift/mid level FGEN still looks to be focused north of M-

59. With the good snow ratios, should be able to generate a solid 3-

5 inches of snow as the low level circuation/cyclogensis tracks

through Wednesday afternoon. Cross sections also indicating

increasing area/depth of negative EPV in the mid levels during

Wednesday and thus possible to see higher end 6 inch totals.

 

Nice bud. I think you're styling with this one. I know other Detroit peeps that are pretty geeked. I'm trying to ignore this in hopes it sneaks up on me with a surprise, lol. Currently have more "mix" wording in my grid cast for Wed. We'll see..

[jaster220]

The incredible thing about is all 28" (or so) inches of the Halloween Blizzard ( I believe at least 8" of it occurred in OCT) melted by about the 12th or 14th of NOV. Than a few nickle and dimers before Thanksgiving when 17" fell. I remember it like it was yesterday because of the Halloween Blizzard and that I had just lost my father earlier that year.

 

Sorry for your loss! Some things in life will always be linked as you say due to timing. It was my 2nd autumn in Traverse, and I still remember the evening that the CF came plowing thru and heavy duty LES was pounding my place in the higher elevations. I had to go out and re-cover my sled as the wind had blown the tarp off and didn't want the snow to pile-up inside the engine cowling and such. I was heavy-duty for my winter sports back then and getting a taste of early winter was making me all smiles

[jaster220]

So far I am in the 3-5"+ range for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

 

Let's just go with the 18z GFS and call it good 'nuff for this winter. Forget that the 12k NAM shows all the snow staying north of Marshall. Either way, you look golden with this one amigo

 

[Niko]

Let's just go with the 18z GFS and call it good 'nuff for this winter. Forget that the 12k NAM shows all the snow staying north of Marshall. Either way, you look golden with this one amigo

 

[indianajohn]

Think it’s time to throw in the Towel for us in Northwest Indiana.. bring on the sever weather and warmer weather. LOL

[Niko]

Think it’s time to throw in the Towel for us in Northwest Indiana.. bring on the sever weather and warmer weather. LOL

Speaking of severe weather, I cannot wait for April to start getting those dark clouds again w t'stms and vivid lightning, along w damaging winds.

[gimmesnow]

Think it’s time to throw in the Towel for us in Northwest Indiana.. bring on the sever weather and warmer weather. LOL

 

Tom had posted some GEFS ensembles that showed hope for most of us, including you. But it's not until the 10th or so.

[Niko]

A 3-6inch snowfall looking likely for MBY from this system. Sweet!

[East Dubzz]

NAM still wants to drop about an inch around here. It’s the long range HRRR, but it doesn’t have any snow around here - just mainly freezing drizzle and maybe some light freezing rain. I know the DVN mentioned that possibility south of Hwy 30, but they expected light snow up here, so I wonder if it’s just the HRRR doing it’s “thing” for now.

[Stacsh]

A 3-6inch snowfall looking likely for MBY from this system. Sweet!

 

Got a surprise 1" fluffy lake enhanced snow last night.  First pure snow in awhile.  Not a good year for LES here.  Finally a powdery system snow.  I'm also in the sweet spot for 3-6.   I'll take the low end 3" at this point!

[Tom]

Been getting light LES showers since about 8:00 am which has not accumulated much but only a coating.  While taking a morning walk, it did lighten up the mood being outside with the flakes flying.

 

[St Paul Storm]

Snowing here for the last 20 minutes. Snow started way before it was supposed to. Big fatty flakes. Bonus.

[Niko]

Got a surprise 1" fluffy lake enhanced snow last night.  First pure snow in awhile.  Not a good year for LES here.  Finally a powdery system snow.  I'm also in the sweet spot for 3-6.   I'll take the low end 3" at this point!

You might be in for another surprise as this system has the potential to be an overacheiver (for MBY as well). I'll take the 6inch. I am hoping to surpass my average snowfall. Getting close.

[Stacsh]

Last December 2017 (Forgot the day)  a similar event produce 6" plus here when 2-4 was forecast.  Really depends where the best lift sets up.  

[Niko]

NOAA:

Attention turns to tonight into Wednesday with the next winter
system that is expected to bring accumulating snowfall across
southeast Michigan. A PV anomaly will eject into the northern plains
with a digging upper level trough that will pass through the Great
Lakes on Wednesday. Out ahead of this wave, low level winds will be
turning out of the southwest, which will bring in a little extra
moisture to the area by tonight. Isentropic ascent and FGEN increase
across the area resulting in snow starting to fall around midnight.
Forecast soundings suggest good thermal profiles favorable for good
snow growth through the morning hours for much of southeast
Michigan. Snow will continue through the late afternoon/early
evening early Wednesday as the main PV feature crosses over
Michigan. A surface low lifting across northern IN/OH will coincide
with the nose of a strengthening mid level jet streak edging into
Michigan, which may give a boost in forcing to ongoing activity
during the afternoon across central portions of the CWA. Snow ratios
through the bulk of the best forcing from roughly Pontiac northward
should be able to generate at least 3-5 inches with potential for
some areas to reach 6 inches by the end of this event if afternoon
activity picks up.

 

I suspect that watches will be posted during the 4pm package.

[Stacsh]

NOAA:

Attention turns to tonight into Wednesday with the next winter

system that is expected to bring accumulating snowfall across

southeast Michigan. A PV anomaly will eject into the northern plains

with a digging upper level trough that will pass through the Great

Lakes on Wednesday. Out ahead of this wave, low level winds will be

turning out of the southwest, which will bring in a little extra

moisture to the area by tonight. Isentropic ascent and FGEN increase

across the area resulting in snow starting to fall around midnight.

Forecast soundings suggest good thermal profiles favorable for good

snow growth through the morning hours for much of southeast

Michigan. Snow will continue through the late afternoon/early

evening early Wednesday as the main PV feature crosses over

Michigan. A surface low lifting across northern IN/OH will coincide

with the nose of a strengthening mid level jet streak edging into

Michigan, which may give a boost in forcing to ongoing activity

during the afternoon across central portions of the CWA. Snow ratios

through the bulk of the best forcing from roughly Pontiac northward

should be able to generate at least 3-5 inches with potential for

some areas to reach 6 inches by the end of this event if afternoon

activity picks up.

 

I suspect that watches will be posted during the 4pm package.

 

GRR went with WWA  I96 north.  Long duration event, not much wind.  May add a county or 2 to the south.  Sorry Jaster!

[Niko]

GRR went with WWA  I96 north.  Long duration event, not much wind.  May add a county or 2 to the south.  Sorry Jaster!

Yup, I saw that. This could be a 15 hr + snowevent. Snow starts here tanite at 11pm or so and its expected to continue throughout the day tomorrow and into the early evening hrs.

[jaster220]

GRR went with WWA  I96 north.  Long duration event, not much wind.  May add a county or 2 to the south.  Sorry Jaster!

 

HAHA thx Stacsh.  Some models have me shut-out, some keep me in the game. Been riding the edge (N and S) it seems on just about every system this season and it's wearing on my last nerve. Other than the weekend storm, most times this season when GRR had me in a WWA it turned into a Warning level event. So, a "non-headline event" may turn into a WWA or what shoulda been one. Guess we'll see soon enough!

[jaster220]

Yup, I saw that. This could be a 15 hr + snowevent. Snow starts here tanite at 11pm or so and its expected to continue throughout the day tomorrow and into the early evening hrs.

 

Some globals have about a 12 hr window of flakes flying even here in Marshall. Oddly, the GFS is furthest south with the snow swath. If a warm layer is the issue (thus mix in my grid) it seems like that model which normally is the warmest would with the WAA potential would reflect that. I really want one good storm where I can sit back relax and enjoy a +/- 75 mile shift buffer. The only worry being whether I get 8, 10, or 12" for a total.