3/2 - 3/3 Heartland Winter Storm

[Tom]

Over the past few days, the models were flip flopping on the intensity of which piece of energy would be the stronger one.  Initially, the GFS was jumping on the idea the Fri/Sat wave would bomb out across the GL's but has since trended towards the Euro and has become a dominant northern stream wave across the Upper Midwest.  The big changes now showing up on the models is the way the models are handling both the trough off the PAC NW coast and the system that is NE of Hawaii which eventually makes it into Cali.  While there is a small piece of energy that initially peels of this trough during the late Thu/Fri period across the N Rockies, this isn't going to be the main threat.  The models have delayed the main energy to come onshore about a day later and now this energy is forecast to come onshore late Friday along with the secondary energy tracking out of the E PAC.  Both pieces may phase together and track into the Rockies during the day on Sat and develop into a robust wave across the Plains which eventually tracks across the MW into the OV.  Keeping all of this in mind, this is almost behaving exactly how the Nov Blizzard developed in the model world.  It took until about 3-4 days out that the models locked onto the idea of a storm and this may be happening again. 

 

With that being said, this is a very complex situation and I don't think the shifting is done just yet and there may be many more members in the game now.  Yes, that includes the snow starved areas of IL/IN/S MI/OH.  Let's discuss....

 

Both 00z Euro/EPS have trended north over the past 2 runs and I think it may not be done as this wave may trended stronger.  Not only that, but models tend to be overdone on the extent of the cold and less suppression may be the result.  During this period, we have a sky high AO/NAO that may allow more of a N shift.  Let's see how things trend over the next couple days.

[Tom]

00z Ukie...

 

 

[Clinton]

Over the past few days, the models were flip flopping on the intensity of which piece of energy would be the stronger one.  Initially, the GFS was jumping on the idea the Fri/Sat wave would bomb out across the GL's but has since trended towards the Euro and has become a dominant northern stream wave across the Upper Midwest.  The big changes now showing up on the models is the way the models are handling both the trough off the PAC NW coast and the system that is NE of Hawaii which eventually makes it into Cali.  While there is a small piece of energy that initially peels of this trough during the late Thu/Fri period across the N Rockies, this isn't going to be the main threat.  The models have delayed the main energy to come onshore about a day later and now this energy is forecast to come onshore late Friday along with the secondary energy tracking out of the E PAC.  Both pieces may phase together and track into the Rockies during the day on Sat and develop into a robust wave across the Plains which eventually tracks across the MW into the OV.  Keeping all of this in mind, this is almost behaving exactly how the Nov Blizzard developed in the model world.  It took until about 3-4 days out that the models locked onto the idea of a storm and this may be happening again. 

 

With that being said, this is a very complex situation and I don't think the shifting is done just yet and there may be many more members in the game now.  Yes, that includes the snow starved areas of IL/IN/S MI/OH.  Let's discuss....

 

Both 00z Euro/EPS have trended north over the past 2 runs and I think it may not be done as this wave may trended stronger.  Not only that, but models tend to be overdone on the extent of the cold and less suppression may be the result.  During this period, we have a sky high AO/NAO that may allow more of a N shift.  Let's see how things trend over the next couple days.

Wow the Eurp does look like the Nov blizzard.  In Nov I was on the southern edge of the blizzard, while I hope we don't see a northern shift I would almost expect it given the +AO.  Maybe the cold air will be deeper this year and it will be more widespread with snow totals.

[Tom]

Wow the Eurp does look like the Nov blizzard.  In Nov I was on the southern edge of the blizzard, while I hope we don't see a northern shift I would almost expect it given the +AO.  Maybe the cold air will be deeper this year and it will be more widespread with snow totals.

I don't think you have to worry about warm air as there will be a ton of cold air around and the track seems to be south of KC which is ideal for your region.  I'm hoping the wave cuts NE quicker across the S MW into the OV per the recent trends on the Euro/EPS.

[Minny_Weather]

I still have a horrible gut feeling about this. I think this has Kansas special written all over it. If we weren't dealing with a mid-January climo in March I'd say we have a better chance, but the snowpack here combined with possible suppression doesn't help our chances. We'll see. Clinton and mlgamer may be good for this one.

[Andie]

I'm injecting this article here that, at least for me, is an impressive amount of moisture getting ready to influence the nation.

It's a story on Calif. and a River of Moisture. The event is classified as a Cat 3 and snow totals are high but so is rain and it's moving into the heartland.

 

https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2019-02-26-california-sierra-feet-of-snow-february-records

 

"Atmospheric river events are now classified somewhat analogous to hurricanes. This atmospheric river is being categorized as a Category 3 event, meaning it's not only beneficial for the state's water supply, but also hazardous in terms of threats from floods and landslides."

.........

 

"Those final snow totals are likely to be impressive, once again measured in feet.

 

Monday afternoon, the National Weather Service in Sacramento said parts of the northern Sierra could see up to 10 feet of snow into Wednesday.

 

In general, anywhere from 36 to 80 inches of storm-total snowfall was expected in the Sierra through Wednesday above 4,500 feet in elevation, NWS-Sacramento said."

[Clinton]

GFS and FV3 giving me a healthy snow on Sunday, I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

[Jaycee]

GFS and FV3 giving me a healthy snow on Sunday, I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

 

 

Oh my god lol what have I done?!?!? D:

[james1976]

Iowa snow hole haha. That hasn't happened in a while. I guess it's our turn.

[bud2380]

UKIE is showing about .20 - 25" qpf Saturday night into Sunday for Cedar Rapids on south.  Given ratios will likely be high, this could be 2-4".  

[jaster220]

I don't think you have to worry about warm air as there will be a ton of cold air around and the track seems to be south of KC which is ideal for your region.  I'm hoping the wave cuts NE quicker across the S MW into the OV per the recent trends on the Euro/EPS.

 

GFS way south of Euro over our way. Let's see who caves to whom with this one. IF indeed this was the Nov bliz in a prior cycle, then you and I may finally get in on this. Here's to hoping bud! 

[Hawkeye]

12z UK

 

[Niko]

NWS is mentioning the possibility for Sunday.

[Tom]

I’m on my phone but the Euro is showing out a massive snowstorm with a widespread 6-12”+ from NE/KS/MO/S IL/IN/OH. The system explodes as it tracks through the S MW/OV.

[Minny_Weather]

I’m on my phone but the Euro is showing out a massive snowstorm with a widespread 6-12”+ from NE/KS/MO/S IL/IN/OH. The system explodes as it tracks through the S MW/OV.

[Hawkeye]

With the cold blast coming down, I doubt this system can track any farther north than what's being shown now.  A couple inches of snow is probably the best I can expect.

[Wxmidatlantic]

 

This storm could be a big deal. Watching in Maryland...

[Tony]

Misses to the north and now misses to the south. No explanation other than we have to blame IllinoisWX for this terrible outcome.

[Clinton]

 

I’m on my phone but the Euro is showing out a massive snowstorm with a widespread 6-12”+ from NE/KS/MO/S IL/IN/OH. The system explodes as it tracks through the S MW/OV.

To good to be true!

[East Dubzz]

Some of these graphics are gross...

 

Just hoping to squeeze out an additional 0.3” this winter to put us over 50”... don’t think that’s too much to ask!

[indianajohn]

Come on baby!!! just 80 miles or so north and I will be happy!!

 

 

 

I’m on my phone but the Euro is showing out a massive snowstorm with a widespread 6-12”+ from NE/KS/MO/S IL/IN/OH. The system explodes as it tracks through the S MW/OV.

[Jaycee]

Misses to the north and now misses to the south. No explanation other than we have to blame IllinoisWX for this terrible outcome.

 

[Tony]

Come on baby!!! just 180 miles or so north and I will be happy!!

 

[Clinton]

I know it's the 84hr NAM but snow coverage looks widespread.

[Clinton]

18z FV3

[Stormhunter87]

18z FV3

Oh might get something out of this, sweet. Definitely a i70 runner. Kc to St. Louis not going to be fun there.

[Clinton]

Oh might get something out of this, sweet. Definitely a i70 runner. Kc to St. Louis not going to be fun there.

I would expect it to cut a little more and impact Chicago like it did in Nov.

[Tony]

Just looking at the newer models it looks like the blocking is not as strong so this might be one reason why the models have shifted slightly north. Not sure how far north this will get but now my interest has peeked a little bit more.

[jaster220]

 

I’m on my phone but the Euro is showing out a massive snowstorm with a widespread 6-12”+ from NE/KS/MO/S IL/IN/OH. The system explodes as it tracks through the S MW/OV.

 

 

Misses to the north and now misses to the south. No explanation other than we have to blame IllinoisWX for this terrible outcome.

 

Oh!! Many SWMI winter weenies would absolutely hurl if that Euro map played out verbatim 

[jaster220]

Just looking at the newer models it looks like the blocking is not as strong so this might be one reason why the models have shifted slightly north. Not sure how far north this will get but now my interest has peeked a little bit more.

 

For the love of everything decent, we need this to bump north or come up with a massively wide snow shield. This "might" salvage my winter if we could thread a needle with this one over here. 

[jaster220]

The Mod at 33andRAIN had a nice tweet regarding the recent trends at h5 for the Sunday time-frame. Sure Tom will be along with a similar news flash 

 

https://twitter.com/MikeMostwill/status/1100831989068955650

[St Paul Storm]

For the love of everything decent, we need this to bump north or come up with a massively wide snow shield. This "might" salvage my winter if we could thread a needle with this one over here.

 

Rooting for you Jaster. Good luck!

[jaster220]

Rooting for you Jaster. Good luck!

 

Thanks SPS. Would be a huge morale boost if I got a direct hit before winter is a wrap 

[jaster220]

0z GFS is way south totally whiffs the Mitt. NAM maintains a theme of a large snow swath but the SLP is way south so that's a bit suspect. With snow clear down to INDY, anything this far north would be a pixie duster

[Clinton]

GEM has some crazy large amounts for EC Kansas,

[jaster220]

GEM has some crazy large amounts for EC Kansas,

 

Noticed the GFS likes the state of KS too. I think you're gonna be gold down there. TBD up my way..

[Grizzcoat]

UKIE has the low in E.Central Utah at HR 72- GFS has it in NE New Mexico. Ukie is more diffuse with the Low pressure-- but if it's on to something - would mean further N - at least in the beginning. -- Someone is going to creamed with this - UKIE showing 1004MB at HR 72 means it's seeing something for sure worth watching-- (pretty strong for the UKIE at that range)

[Tom]

00z Euro...for the most part this looks like a Plains/S MW/OV storm...

 

 

[Tom]

00z Ukie....looks very similar to the Euro...

 

 

[Clinton]

Euro a little weaker last night in my neck of the woods but more realistic given the progressiveness of the flow.  Still a nice snow and may flirt with warning level.