March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Deweydog]

Really like what the 18z does in the long range.

Haha. The 18z isn’t even out yet.

[Omegaraptor]

 

Does anyone know what's up with the persistent cold in southern Siskiyou County? To be specific this is 222 hours out on the 18Z GFS. While the rest of the PNW and NorCal torches, that spot of Siskiyou County, right around where Mt Shasta is, is kept in permanent cold. What's going on?

 

Could just be inaccurate stations in that area. When you click that spot on the sounder the dew points don't seem to measure properly.

[snow_wizard]

Major bubble of cold water upwelling along the coast of South America right now.  Looks like this psycho off again on again El Nino is going to be off again for a while.  The recent WWB created another warm Kelvin wave, though, which will upwell a bit later on.  Going to be interesting to see how ENSO plays out this year.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Screen Shot 2019-03-10 at 8.45.36 PM.png

 

Does anyone know what's up with the persistent cold in southern Siskiyou County? To be specific this is 222 hours out on the 18Z GFS. While the rest of the PNW and NorCal torches, that spot of Siskiyou County, right around where Mt Shasta is, is kept in permanent cold. What's going on?

 

Could just be inaccurate stations in that area. When you click that spot on the sounder the dew points don't seem to measure properly.

 

Might just be a bad call by the model.

[El_Nina]

Down to 33. Gonna be yet another freeze tonight.

[Deweydog]

Screen Shot 2019-03-10 at 8.45.36 PM.png

 

Does anyone know what's up with the persistent cold in southern Siskiyou County? To be specific this is 222 hours out on the 18Z GFS. While the rest of the PNW and NorCal torches, that spot of Siskiyou County, right around where Mt Shasta is, is kept in permanent cold. What's going on?

 

Could just be inaccurate stations in that area. When you click that spot on the sounder the dew points don't seem to measure properly.

Ice age working its way down.

[MossMan]

Just hit 32.

[Omegaraptor]

Anyone willing to bet that the storm on Monday night and Tuesday morning will die right as it hits the Tualatin Valley and drop 40% of the forecasted amount?

[Jesse]

Anyone willing to bet that the storm on Monday night and Tuesday morning will die right as it hits the Tualatin Valley and drop 40% of the forecasted amount?

I bet $1,000 of Tim’s money that it won’t.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Does everyone have their shorts and t-shirts clean and ready to go?

[TT-SEA]

GFS actually shows some rain on Saturday.

 

In really just want rain... even over some March ridging.

 

Internal conflict!

[Weiner Warrior]

My t-shirts clean but my shorts are definitely soiled

[MossMan]

[Guest CulverJosh]

Yeah I wore them in January!

One of those guys huh?  Flip flops too?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

GFS actually shows some rain on Saturday.

 

In really just want rain... even over some March ridging.

 

Internal conflict!

 

I hear ya. There's been plenty of sun lately, time to mix things up a bit. The landscape looks kind of depressing now. Tomorrow's system is looking warmer, the 0z NAM even shows rain in your area and that model tends to run on the cold side. The WRF is similar, only high elevation snow tomorrow, rain for everyone else:

 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS and FV3 both undercut the ridge very quickly.  The fact both models shows it could spell trouble for any sustained warm weather.

[ShawniganLake]

I hear ya. There's been plenty of sun lately, time to mix things up a bit. The landscape looks kind of depressing now. Tomorrow's system is looking warmer, the 0z NAM even shows rain in your area and that model tends to run on the cold side. The WRF is similar, only high elevation snow tomorrow, rain for everyone else:

 

3.5 weeks of well below normal temps but without a single over running snowfall.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS and FV3 both undercut the ridge very quickly. The fact both models shows it could spell trouble for any sustained warm weather.

Whatever it takes to make it mild again day and night.

[MossMan]

One of those guys huh? Flip flops too?

Noooo. I did put on shorts one day in January. It was the 13th and it was warm! Had breakfast on the deck! My dog rather enjoyed it as well.

[GHweatherChris]

Does everyone have their shorts and t-shirts clean and ready to go?

I have worn shorts every day this winter!!

[GHweatherChris]

Whatever it takes to make it mild again day and night.

You can't root for which you despise....

[MossMan]

Oh boy...Looks like the PNA might tank again at the end of the month.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

[VancouverIslandSouth]

3.5 weeks of well below normal temps but without a single over running snowfall.

 

Yeah, we had what seemed like multiple chances I'd figured we'd have at least one decent season close-out event. Even something along the lines of Feb 27, 2017 would have been nice.

[Phil]

Major bubble of cold water upwelling along the coast of South America right now. Looks like this psycho off again on again El Nino is going to be off again for a while. The recent WWB created another warm Kelvin wave, though, which will upwell a bit later on. Going to be interesting to see how ENSO plays out this year.

You mean a downwelling KW? It will act to warm the subsurface and prevent the upwelling of cool waters in the long run, yes, which will allow for more efficient ocean/atmosphere coupling to occur at some point given the reduced amplitude of intraseasonal forcing exemplified by +QBO/stable tropics.

[epiceast]

3.5 weeks of well below normal temps but without a single over running snowfall.

February sun angles.

[El_Nina]

GFS actually shows some rain on Saturday.

In really just want rain... even over some March ridging.

Internal conflict!

Starting to worry about getting a little dry? Quite the lackluster mountain snowpack in your area.

[Omegaraptor]

More 40s?

 

Ugh. Is there even one person on here who likes 40s, no less in spring?

[TT-SEA]

Starting to worry about getting a little dry? Quite the lackluster mountain snowpack in your area.

 

 

Not worried about dry... just want rain to wake everything up and finish off the snow here.

[Phil]

The 00z GFS has perhaps the strongest +NAO that is physically possible.

 

Which is not surprising under developing +QBO during boreal spring following a midwinter SSW. And it’s also favorable for developing a more coherent El Niño in the low pass signal since it helps weaken the intraseasonal cycle.

 

[El_Nina]

Not worried about dry... just want rain to wake everything up and finish off the snow here.

Fair enough. But just out of curiosity, has it been drier than normal up there recently?

[Phil]

And there’s the jet extension too.

 

Zonal zonal zonal zonal.

[Jesse]

More 40s?

 

Ugh. Is there even one person on here who likes 40s, no less in spring?

 

I do. But I think that's only because we aren't technically in the 40s right now.

 

Once we are I will decide I hate them and want warmer or colder and wet/dry depending on whatever it's not doing at the moment. Then maybe check my wunderground app to see if it shows any hope, and perhaps pose an open question to the forum.

[Phil]

Whatever it takes to make it mild again day and night.

You live in a terrible place for “mild”.

 

But you already knew that.

[ShawniganLake]

February sun angles.

No precip was more the issue. It snows pretty easily here into March.

[seattleweatherguy]

No precip was more the issue. It snows pretty easily here into March.

Back in 2008 it snowed in April here

[Omegaraptor]

You live in a terrible place for “mild”.

But you already knew that.

PDX has winters as mild as Tennessee and summers like Massachusetts without the sticky humidity crap (and mosquitoes) that the east coast is known for. It’s pretty good for mildness, it’s just the occasional arctic fronts that intrude like this February.

 

If I could have North Bend’s precipitation and Portland’s temperatures I would be very content. Luckily we have foothills here too.

[TT-SEA]

Fair enough. But just out of curiosity, has it been drier than normal up there recently?

Has not rained for weeks... has to be drier than normal.

[TT-SEA]

You live in a terrible place for “mild”.

 

But you already knew that.

Our climate year around is mild.

 

Its what we do best.

[Jesse]

Our climate year around is mild. Its what we do best.

I was going to say. The whole Pacific Coast of North America is known for being mild compared to inland areas. We are like a cooler and wetter version of California...or a warmer and drier version of Southeast Alaska.

[Omegaraptor]

I was going to say. The whole Pacific Coast of North America is known for being mild compared to inland areas. We are like a cooler and wetter version of California...or a warmer and drier version of Southeast Alaska.

Cooler and wetter California sounds best. Southern CA > Northern CA > OR > WA > BC > SE AK. Climate goes from warm Med to cool Med to oceanic.

 

Portland is also very warm for its latitude - as mentioned in the comparison to Tennessee and Massachusetts. We’re at the same latitude as Central Maine!