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March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW


BLI snowman

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Cooler and wetter California sounds best. Portland is also very warm for its latitude - as mentioned in the comparison to Tennessee and Massachusetts. We’re at the same latitude as Central Maine!

I like warmer and drier Alaska.

 

We are fairly mild for our latitude. Largest body of water in the world to our west helps with that. But we are nowhere near as insanely mild of parts of coastal Western Europe, where the Gulf Stream brings average temps comparable to our region well north of 50N.

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I was going to say. The whole Pacific Coast of North America is known for being mild compared to inland areas. We are like a cooler and wetter version of California...or a warmer and drier version of Southeast Alaska.

 

 

I am not sure what Phil was talking about.   

 

Our climate is the definition of mild.   Generally warm winters and relatively cool summers.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I am not sure what Phil was talking about.

 

Our climate is the definition of mild. Generally warm winters and relatively cool summers.

Semantics, but I wouldn’t call our winters warm. SoCal, Phoenix, Florida etc have legitimately warm winters. Ours are pretty cool and wet. But definitely not frigid like many inland areas at our latitude.

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I like warmer and drier Alaska.

We are fairly mild for our latitude. Largest body of water in the world to our west helps with that. But we are nowhere near as insanely mild of parts of coastal Western Europe, where the Gulf Stream brings average temps comparable to our region well north of 50N.

Portland is similar to France at its latitude, not of course counting the Med parts. Generally it’s compared to SW France and Northern Spain, particularly the Basque Country.

 

However, Norway wins over SE Alaska easily. It’s not even a contest.

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Semantics, but I wouldn’t call our winters warm. SoCal, Phoenix, Florida etc have legitimately warm winters. Ours are pretty cool and wet. But definitely not frigid like many inland areas at our latitude.

 

 

Yeah... warm is too extreme of a word.   Mild is better but that would be redundant.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You don’t usually have an issue with redundancy.

 

Well whatever... some 52/42 type days with rain would be nice.   Should not be that hard in March.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I like warmer and drier Alaska.

 

We are fairly mild for our latitude. Largest body of water in the world to our west helps with that. But we are nowhere near as insanely mild of parts of coastal Western Europe, where the Gulf Stream brings average temps comparable to our region well north of 50N.

 

Yeah...I really hate this being called a Mediterranean climate, but I'm sure Phil hates his being called sub tropical also.  The classifications need more categories.  During our cold phases this climate isn't really THAT mild anyway.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Some interesting changes.

 

attachicon.gif90AFA5BA-D93C-4FD5-8D08-49E96A9B2599.png

 

The warm bubble is suffering some serious hits.  Decent chance we go back into a fairly chilly pattern after whatever warmth we get.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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EURO snow maps yet or is it too early?

 

Here you go... another ECMWF snow map that assumes 36 degree slop is accumulating snow.   <_>

 

ecmwf-snow-6-washington-7.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF is having no part of any rain next weekend.    Just 60s/40s type days with sunshine and dry weather.

 

And accounting for its cool bias... Monday will be in the low 70s.

 

And it now shows 40s and some low 50s east of the mountains in the basin... instead of low 30s like it was showing on previous runs. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Finally down to freezing tonight.  It took a bit longer, but the fall has been very steady all evening.  Monday will be the 15th consecutive freezing low temperature and something like 37 consecutive 35 or lower.  Just ridiculous for late winter / early spring.

 

My average temperature for the first third of March is 36.9 with average low 27.3.  Nice numbers!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Finally down to freezing tonight.  It took a bit longer, but the fall has been very steady all evening.  Monday will be the 15th consecutive freezing low temperature and something like 37 consecutive 35 or lower.  Just ridiculous for late winter / early spring.

 

My average temperature for the first third of March is 36.9 with average low 27.3.  Nice numbers!

`

38 here... and there is a little wind out there now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF is watering the warmth down too.  I actually hope we get a couple of solidly warm days for contrast.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The ECMWF is watering the warmth down too.  I actually hope we get a couple of solidly warm days for contrast.

 

It is not really any different than previous runs.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Heights aren't quite as high/ridge not as amplified. Some runs the past few days had 500mb heights above 576dm for much of the region early next week.

 

Surface temps are about the same.    Next Sunday is actually warmer than the 12Z run. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At least the 00Z EURO shows the ridge breaking down at day 10.

 

A band of light rain moving in during the afternoon on day 10 from Eugene to Bellingham with temps near 60.     Sounds delightful.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was going to say. The whole Pacific Coast of North America is known for being mild compared to inland areas. We are like a cooler and wetter version of California...or a warmer and drier version of Southeast Alaska.

That’s not my definition of mild.

 

I’ll just leave it at this.

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RsW1RjsgUgM/Wc2KM8HrLcI/AAAAAAAAFlQ/4IXNbhg6M6Mke_7FaBH7FpjqzXjBUACtQCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/MaxCategory.jpg

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That’s not my definition of mild.

 

I’ll just leave it at this.

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RsW1RjsgUgM/Wc2KM8HrLcI/AAAAAAAAFlQ/4IXNbhg6M6Mke_7FaBH7FpjqzXjBUACtQCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/MaxCategory.jpg

Mild means no extremes.

 

That is our normal weather here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I like warmer and drier Alaska.

 

We are fairly mild for our latitude. Largest body of water in the world to our west helps with that. But we are nowhere near as insanely mild of parts of coastal Western Europe, where the Gulf Stream brings average temps comparable to our region well north of 50N.

FWIW, it’s not the Gulf Stream that’s responsible for that warmth. It’s actually modification of the NATL wavetrain by the sharp thermal gradient between the deep pool of frigid, dry air over NE-Canada/Greenland and the warm, moist mild air over the Gulf/western-quadrant of the NATL subtropical anticyclone.

 

If the Gulf Stream shut down completely, Europe would barely cool at all, contrary to popular mythology. Those cool events were a result of abrupt changes to subtropical atmospheric circulation that displaced the Canadian cold pool over the NATL (possible a super -NAO pattern).

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That map is also misleading. We can easily have highs in the 50s from October into May. Its no wonder its the most common high.

 

A place like Minnesota is way colder for half the year and then jumps to really warm for 4 months or so.

 

They might have 70s as the most common high... but 20s might be second most common. They have a wide range... we have a much more narrow range.

 

We are the bland mild salsa most of the time. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah...I really hate this being called a Mediterranean climate, but I'm sure Phil hates his being called sub tropical also. The classifications need more categories. During our cold phases this climate isn't really THAT mild anyway.

That’s why I like the Trewartha classification system better than the Koppen one.

 

This place is literally downright tropical during the summer months (85-95*F everyday, minus the occasional heatwave, with those towering tropical looking clouds every afternoon), but during the winter we’re just as “continental” as Illinois. Stupid system yet it’s still conventional for whatever reason.

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That map is also misleading. We can easily have highs in the 50s from October into May. Its no wonder its the most common high.

 

A place like Minnesota is way colder for half the year and then jumps to really warm for 4 months or so.

 

They might have 70s as the most common high... but 20s might be second most common. They have a wide range... we have a much more narrow range.

 

We are the bland mild salsa most of the time. :)

 

Something tells me that's your favorite flavor anyway.

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That map is also misleading. We can easily have highs in the 50s from October into May. Its no wonder its the most common high.

 

A place like Minnesota is way colder for half the year and then jumps to really warm for 4 months or so.

 

They might have 70s as the most common high... but 20s might be second most common. They have a wide range... we have a much more narrow range.

 

We are the bland mild salsa most of the time. :)

Phil's map is a meme chart. It also shows that the east coast sucks for weather.

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Phil's map is a meme chart. It also shows that the east coast sucks for weather.

It sucks for many things, weather being just one of them.

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Definitely slowed down here. I like the slowdown after peak season.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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The 00z GFS has perhaps the strongest +NAO that is physically possible.

Which is not surprising under developing +QBO during boreal spring following a midwinter SSW. And it’s also favorable for developing a more coherent El Niño in the low pass signal since it helps weaken the intraseasonal cycle.QYpmDQM.png

it explans in part why the East coast winter was also reather blend to wrong Qbo phase in a nino winter west qbo El nino winters tend to suck there.on the other hand East qbo El nino winters tend to be pretty awesome.the oppersite to La ninas really.
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it explans in part why the East coast winter was also reather blend to wrong Qbo phase in a nino winter west qbo El nino winters tend to suck there.on the other hand East qbo El nino winters tend to be pretty awesome.the oppersite to La ninas really.

Well, we’ve had above average snowfall so it could have been worse. It just came in million small events as opposed to a few big events like usual.

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Yeah...I really hate this being called a Mediterranean climate, but I'm sure Phil hates his being called sub tropical also.  The classifications need more categories.  During our cold phases this climate isn't really THAT mild anyway.

Cool Mediterranean makes sense, at least in Portland. Luckily Koppen makes this distinction.

 

In the summer Portland can go 30-40+ days without rain, easily. That’s not something you see in oceanic climates. Grass turns brown and the valley turns gold. Oceanic climates are mostly green year round. We literally have a wildfire season.

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Temp up to 38 after a low of 31. Did not check DP but should be below freezing since the snow is crunchy hard this morning and no dripping.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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