March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

I think my favorite is north Central WA or Western Montana.  I think northern CA could be pretty interesting along the I-5 corridor for the northern 50 miles of the state or so.  Pretty snowy winters there.

 

One thing worth noting about Siskiyou County, CA is that the Yreka area is in a rain shadow caused by Mount Shasta and the Klamath Mountains, just like Sequim, WA. The Shasta Valley looks visibly brown and barren, despite being west of the Cascades. Parts of the SV get 15" of rain a year which isn't much more than OR/WA east of the Cascades.

 

Yreka also gets about 12" of snow a year. Mount Shasta City gets 103".

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is basically ridgy for the next 15 days... a small break down around days 8-10 as the trough moves through CA.    Then ridging really rebounds for the rest of the run.  

[snow_wizard]

That graphic is completely wrong for Portland... they are at 19.12 inches for the rainy season.   

 

Best to check when it seems completely crazy.  

 

Yeah...I was going to say.  How would that incredibly low total be only slightly more less than normal than Seattle's much higher total.

[snow_wizard]

That’s your prerogative. During the eras when colder winters were actually common we definitely didn’t see scorching, bone dry warm seasons like the past few years. But if you need to spin it as a good thing to get you through until you are able to move I understand.

 

We used to have summers that were both cool and very dry.  Dry doesn't have to mean hot.

[Jesse]

Have you noticed the "YTD"? That means "year-to-date". It starts on January 1st.

 

Seattle's rain data also looks wrong, but Portland and Santa Rosa look correct or close to it.

You really need to start fact checking stuff before you post.

[TT-SEA]

Have you noticed the "YTD"? That means "year-to-date". It starts on January 1st.

 

Seattle's rain data also looks wrong, but Portland and Santa Rosa look correct or close to it.

 

Its crap data!  

 

Seattle is at 9.61 for the year and 24.89 for the rainy season.

 

Portland is at 7.75 for the year and 19.12 for the rainy season.

[Jesse]

We used to have summers that were both cool and very dry. Dry doesn't have to mean hot.

They were also relatively shorter. But yeah good luck to us getting a legitimately cool and dry summer in this modern climate regime. I think we will get a top tier arctic outbreak before that happens.

[ShawniganLake]

North side of my house has 5-6” of snow

 

 

 

South side and the daffodils are up

 

[TT-SEA]

No sign of any change even at day 15 on the 12Z EPS.      This is a very Nino-like early spring pattern if I ever saw one.

 

 

[Omegaraptor]

They were also relatively shorter. But yeah good luck to us getting a legitimately cool and dry summer in this modern climate regime. I think we will get a top tier arctic outbreak before that happens.

 

When was the last legitimately cool/dry summer?

[Jesse]

No sign of any change even at day 15 on the 12Z EPS. This is a very Nino-like early spring pattern if I ever saw one.

 

 

Are you done rooting for wet and mild since your snow will probably be melting soon without any rain assistance?

[TT-SEA]

Are you done rooting for wet and mild since your snow will probably be melting soon without any rain assistance?

 

No... I would still love a period of wet and mild.   

 

But it looks like nothing but textbook Nino split flow ahead.

[Jesse]

No... I would still love a period of wet and mild.

 

But it looks like nothing but textbook Nino split flow ahead.

Starting to look like that 5-6 week period of cold and snowy will be bookended by very typical Niño crap. Not how I saw things playing out.

[Jesse]

When was the last legitimately cool/dry summer?

Probably depends on what station you look at. Regionally? Maybe late 90s early 2000s. Somewhere in the 1999-2001 period would be my guess.

[TT-SEA]

Starting to look like that 5-6 week period of cold and snowy will be bookended by very typical Niño crap. Not how I saw things playing out.

 

SSW event enhanced by low solar blocking delivered and threw out Nino climo for awhile.    The cold event would probably not have lasted so long... but there was no jet stream to blast out the cold air over the western US in this blocky year.

[Jesse]

SSW event enhanced by low solar blocking delivered and threw out Nino climo for awhile. The cold event would probably not have lasted so long... but there was no jet stream to blast out the cold air over the western US in this blocky low solar year.

Springs during the last low solar period (2008-12) were generally very cool and wet. I’m not sure if it’s as simple as low solar.

[Kayla]

Springs during the last low solar period (2008-12) were generally very cool and wet. I’m not sure if it’s as simple as low solar.

 

I'm feeling 2009 for the rest of this Spring. Not the worst but not great either.

[Jesse]

I'm feeling 2009 for the rest of this Spring. Not the worst but not great either.

Not the worst but not great could vary wildly depending on whose opinion we are talking about. Unless of course you are just talking about its valdiity as an analog. I would be reluctant using it since it was following a strong La Niña.

[Kayla]

Happy to report that my snow depth is sitting below 30" for the first time since January! Measured 28" this morning with finally some average temps on the way.

 

The area where we need to put garden boxes in is still a 4-5ft deep drift though so that's gonna be a while before those go in. 

[Kayla]

Not the worst but not great could vary wildly depending on whose opinion we are talking about. Unless of course you are just talking about it’s valdiity as an analog. I would be reluctant using it since it was following a strong La Niña.

 

Yeah I see it more as coming off a blocky winter with a quickly warming ENSO.

 

Either way, you know me, I'm not a big fan of analogs in general.

[TT-SEA]

Lots of landscaping work ahead for the crew up here.

 

[MikeInEverett]

I had a good view of the Grand Canyon on my flight yesterday as well!!

 

[Omegaraptor]

New 18z GFS showing a good rainy front coming in on Friday/Saturday now. We could get to 0.75" total by the end of the day Saturday.

 

Looks like the start of a troughing system that should bring a decent amount of rain. In classic Niño fashion, California will be hit harder than Oregon.

[snow_wizard]

They were also relatively shorter. But yeah good luck to us getting a legitimately cool and dry summer in this modern climate regime. I think we will get a top tier arctic outbreak before that happens.

 

Let's see what the new solar regime might have to say about our summer patterns.  As I've said before the only difference between a scorching dry summer and a cool dry one is which ridge dominates.  If the Pacific Ridge becomes more dominant during summer again we will see considerably cooler summers.  This stuff is all cyclical.

[snow_wizard]

It's going to be very interesting to see where ENSO goes as the year wears on.  We have some warm subsurface that is going to surface pretty soon, but it's still way too early to make any calls for next winter.  We've never had a multi year Nino at solar minimum in the period of record so statiscally a Nino isn't likely for next winter.  You also have the fact the last multi year Nino wasn't that long ago, and we haven't had a major Nina since.  It wouldn't be shocking to see a Nino peak in the spring and then fall through the summer and autumn.  Just too early to tell yet.  This is one time I want to see a neutral ENSO winter so bad I can taste it.  The incredible February we just had leaves us primed for something great next winter if ENSO doesn't mess it up.  If we do end up with a major Nino next winter we could still see cold early at least historically speaking.  This time we want neutral...maybe even weak Nino would work.  

 

All this having been said we just had a February we had no business having with a Nino in progress so there is that....

 

BTW I also agree with Phil that if we do have a Nino next winter we should be poised for a multi year Nina afterward.

[Omegaraptor]

No sign of any change even at day 15 on the 12Z EPS.      This is a very Nino-like early spring pattern if I ever saw one.

 

 

 

 

Check out the 18z GFS. Way more rain than the 12z. All of Western Oregon and Washington will be getting 2"+, even the Olympic Rainshadow.

[Jesse]

Check out the 18z GFS. Way more rain than the 12z. All of Western Oregon and Washington will be getting 2"+, even the Olympic Rainshadow.

You are barking up the wrong tree.

[TT-SEA]

Check out the 18z GFS. Way more rain than the 12z. All of Western Oregon and Washington will be getting 2"+, even the Olympic Rainshadow.

 

Not very meaningful given the consistency of the EPS.   

 

And you cannot say anything "will be" happening based on the 18Z GFS.  I would never say a a big ridge will be coming based on the 18Z GFS if the EPS has been consistently showing cold troughing.    

[Jesse]

And there it is.

[TT-SEA]

And there it is.

 

And what would you say to me if I excitedly proclaimed lots of ridging was coming based on one run of the 18Z GFS and in direct contrast with an EPS showing cold troughing for the next 15 days?    You would have no problem at all pointing out my error in logic as soon as possible.    I would also point out that out to someone else.

[Jesse]

Let's see what the new solar regime might have to say about our summer patterns. As I've said before the only difference between a scorching dry summer and a cool dry one is which ridge dominates. If the Pacific Ridge becomes more dominant during summer again we will see considerably cooler summers. This stuff is all cyclical.

The “new regime” talk has been happening here for going on 15 years now. Will believe it when I see it.

[TT-SEA]

61 at SEA... 62 in North Bend.

 

Should be a little warmer each of the next 3 days.

[Jesse]

And what would you say to me if I excitedly proclaimed lots of ridging was coming based on one run of the 18Z GFS and in direct contrast with an EPS showing cold troughing for the next 15 days? You would have no problem at all pointing out my error in logic as soon as possible. I would also point out that out to someone else.

No one else holds a candle, bud.

[TT-SEA]

No one else holds a candle, bud.

 

Great.  

[Jesse]

Great.

Not so great.

[MossMan]

62 here at Boeing Field in Seattle where I am currently at.

[Omegaraptor]

Not very meaningful given the consistency of the EPS.

 

And you cannot say anything "will be" happening based on the 18Z GFS. I would never say a a big ridge will be coming based on the 18Z GFS if the EPS has been consistently showing cold troughing.

Yeah, “will be” was a mistake on my part. The correct term is “the model is showing”.

 

I need to stop over-relying on GFS as well.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, “will be” was a mistake on my part. The correct term is “the model is showing”.

 

I need to stop over-relying on GFS as well.

It could happen.

[Omegaraptor]

It could happen.

There’s waffling on the GFS though. 06z/18z and 00/12 usually show differences. If we have consistent trends, that means a lot more than a model that can’t make up its mind.

[Omegaraptor]

Also, on the topic of immediate weather, what’s a good website to look at PDX station whenever you want? I only look at its data when they release it on the NOAA weather office.