March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Jesse]

There’s waffling on the GFS though. 06z/18z and 00/12 usually show differences. If we have consistent trends, that means a lot more than a model that can’t make up its mind.

GFS ensembles have been pretty consistent. Then again so has the EPS so we’ll see. It would really surprise me to stay in an overall dry pattern from now into the summer. I think we see at least a few notably wet periods (relative to average) between now and June

[Jesse]

Also, on the topic of immediate weather, what’s a good website to look at PDX station whenever you want? I only look at its data when they release it on the NOAA weather office.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KPDX&num=48&raw=0&banner=off

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the FV3 pretty much agrees with the operational GFS and GFS esnemble for week 2.  I really hope we don't get stuck in a Ninoesque pattern.  We have a better chance of thwarting a Nino next winter if we have anomalous mid latitude ridging over the NE Pacific this spring and summer.

[Jesse]

18z GFS ensemble looks pretty good.

 

[snow_wizard]

18z GFS ensemble looks pretty good.

 

D6772AE6-7753-4178-8F7D-F8E1FCB8652F.png

 

 

It seems pretty consistent.  It's always concerning when the EPS shows something we don't like, but it's not infallible.  

[Jesse]

It seems pretty consistent. It's always concerning when the EPS shows something we don't like, but it's not infallible.

It certainly is not. As has been proven many times.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like it's finally going to really clear out in a few hours.  I hate this high cloud crap.  It does nothing to limit daytime heating, but puts a damper on radiational cooling at night.

[TT-SEA]

Nice cloud cover tonight... and then clears out in the morning. Perfect combination. Lets get spring into gear. Why is a brown landscape enjoyable in March?

[Jesse]

Nice cloud cover tonight... and then clears out in the morning. Perfect combination. Lets get spring into gear. Why is a brown landscape enjoyable in March?

Whoah, I’m not sure if you realized it but this post is like the exact opposite of Jim’s. Isn’t that crazy!?

[TT-SEA]

Whoah, I’m not sure if you realized it but this post is like the exact opposite of Jim’s. Isn’t that crazy!?

I did realize that. I have the exact opposite opinion and I am stoked about the clouds tonight and how it sets us up for tomorrow.

[MossMan]

58/36 today.

[Jesse]

I did realize that. I have the exact opposite opinion and I am stoked about the clouds to tonight and how it sets us up for tomorrow.

Keep us posted!

[snow_wizard]

Nice cloud cover tonight... and then clears out in the morning. Perfect combination. Lets get spring into gear. Why is a brown landscape enjoyable in March?

 

It's actually going to clear out fairly early tonight.

[snow_wizard]

58/36 today.

 

Kind of interesting how a lot of my low temps have been colder than yours lately.  Only 1 degree lower today though.

[Deweydog]

The ending of the ASU/WSU game was f*cked up.

 

And the weather was D-lightful.

[TT-SEA]

It's actually going to clear out fairly early tonight.

Probably won't matter for my area since offshore flow is picking up as well.

 

But hopefully it stays bleak in your area like you want.

[snow_wizard]

Probably won't matter for my area since offshore flow is picking up as well.

 

But hopefully it stays bleak in your area like you want.

 

I just like frosty nights in the spring.  We used to get a whole bunch of those.

[TT-SEA]

I just like frosty nights in the spring. We used to get a whole bunch of those.

I know.

 

And that prevents things from growing. So I am hoping your area stays dormant and brown like you want.

 

Everyone should get what they want.

[ShawniganLake]

What sort of range are the record dry Marches in in your area?

 

PDX is sitting at 0.86” for the month to date, which is over an inch below normal.

Shawnigan Lake. 0.74”. (1924)

 

Comox. 1.23”. (1965)

 

Victoria. YYJ. 0.67”. (1965)

[TT-SEA]

Still 52 at SEA and 50 in North Bend... pleasant evening out there.    

[snow_wizard]

Quite a number of sub -5 ensemble members on the 0z at months end.

[snow_wizard]

Shawnigan Lake. 0.74”. (1924)

 

Comox. 1.23”. (1965)

 

Victoria. YYJ. 0.67”. (1965)

 

Like seeing the 1920s represented.

[snow_wizard]

The back edge of the clouds is almost here!  More frost!

[Omegaraptor]

00z GFS shows alternating ridges and troughs with no consistent system forming. At least, not from what I can see, but I'm not the most experienced guy here. Such is early spring in the NW.

 

Is EPS still the same Tim?

[TT-SEA]

The back edge of the clouds is almost here!  More frost!

 

 

Flash freeze!   

[TT-SEA]

00z GFS shows alternating ridges and troughs with no consistent system forming. At least, not from what I can see, but I'm not the most experienced guy here. Such is spring in the NW.

 

Is EPS still the same Tim?

 

 

EPS finishes running twice a day... about 12:15 p.m. and again at 12:15 a.m.

 

12Z EPS was basically ridgy for the next 15 days.   

[ShawniganLake]

Like seeing the 1920s represented.

FWIW the 1965-66 was a ridiculously snowy winter up this way. Something like 75” at Shawnigan Lake. And was a strong Nino.

[GHweatherChris]

Flash freeze!

#getthatpostcountup

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I missed Dewey down in Arizona. Just got back this evening. Very nice trip, but glad to be home. The snowline has retreated just about to my place, but still quite a bit of snow on the ground up here. Some bare spots starting to emerge, but still 9" in my measuring spot and even deeper snow in the fully shaded spots. 

 

A little milder tonight, currently 37, just putting my stats together while I was gone, but it looks like pretty much all nights were below freezing. 

[TacomaWaWx]

43 at 7:30am already next 3 days should be pretty warm I do live right on the water however so it will probably be a couple degrees cooler here than some places the next couple days. We will see if and how much rain comes after this warm up.

[TT-SEA]

EPS finishes running twice a day... about 12:15 p.m. and again at 12:15 a.m.

 

12Z EPS was basically ridgy for the next 15 days.   

 

 

I forgot to account for daylight savings... the EPS now finished around 1:15 p.m. and 1:15 a.m.

 

The 00Z EPS was ridgy overall for the next 15 days as well... like previous runs.

 

Here is the 10-15 day mean:

 

 

[Blizzard777]

Still holding just short of 60* in Federal Way

Currently chilly and 36*

[TT-SEA]

Still holding just short of 60* in Federal Way

Currently chilly and 36*

 

Looks like 63.6 for the monthly high so far in North Bend... but it will be over 70 by tomorrow or Tuesday.   Your average temp is a little higher despite the temperature range being a little higher out here on both ends.

 

  

[snow_wizard]

Quite remarkably OLM has dropped to freezing or below every single day s far this month.  Might have to see if they have ever done that before this deep into the month.  Shades of 1951 with a slightly different timing.

[Blizzard777]

Oregon Coast has been absolutely beautiful!

Stunning sunsets and moonset as well

[MossMan]

Going to be a gorgeous day! Will be starting some spring yard work around the patches of snow left. Currently 42 after a low of 35.

[TT-SEA]

Quite remarkably OLM has dropped to freezing or below every single day s far this month. Might have to see if they have ever done that before this deep into the month. Shades of 1951 with a slightly different timing.

The current pattern is also very much like the spring of 1951 after the cold and snowy period. April of 1951 was basically warm days and chilly nights and dry for most of the month.

[TT-SEA]

Cherry blossoms finally opening up in North Bend... even with some random snowbanks still around. Definitely late this year... but by Wednesday they will be really brilliant with the warm days ahead.
 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS still looks wet and cool. Interesting to see the GFS and its ensembles so at odds with the EPS. Beautiful sunny morning and 42 degrees after a low of 33. Snapped this pic of the back yard when I got up.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The FV-3 is very chilly in the long range.