March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Jesse]

Eventually. Amazing how this climate just wears you down over time. I have a number of family members who have bailed over the past several years due to incessant gloom. As long as we have stuff like the past 6 weeks I can deal with some crap too. It is really sweet when we score here.

You sound more like Tim each year. It’s interesting since you have sort of arrived at the same net result for very different reasons.

[Jesse]

One of you despises the gloom... and the other wants gloom all summer. But you both agree on a typically brief cold spells.

He’s actually really inconsistent. When we do get cool and wet periods in the summer he usually praises them. I think the main thing he is unhappy with in our climate is the lack of sustained cold anomalies. No one who actually hates cool and gloom in the warm season around here would constantly tout the 1950s as a great decade weather wise.

[Jesse]

We sure do. I am rooting for the GFS for a plethora of reasons.

It’s a lot gloomier...

[TT-SEA]

He’s actually really inconsistent. When we do get cool and wet periods in the summer he usually praises them. I think the main thing he is unhappy with in our climate is the lack is sustained cold anomalies. No one who actually hates cool and gloom in the warm season around here would constantly tout the 1950s as a great decade weather wise.

 

OK.

 

I don't even talk like he does about gloom.    Not even close now.

[TT-SEA]

I am glad I am not on the side of wanting something that 100% disagrees with the obvious ECMWF trends and the consistent EPS.   I would not even hold out any hope if it was the complete opposite.    

 

I can already tell that the 12Z EPS has not backed down at all.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is out through day 12 now...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There are things I do not like/appreciate about this climate, but overall I can't really think of a climate I would prefer over the one up here in the foothills. One of the nice things about this location is the potential for massive snows. The last 6 weeks though a bit stressful were really fun. Obviously Central Oregon can get incredible snows, but it is a little to deserty for me over there. Spokane or the Wallowa Valley have great climates. 

 

Being in Flagstaff last week, they have a pretty great climate. Maybe a little dry for my taste though. 

[snow_wizard]

Hmmmm...the EPS control looks a lot like the GFS and FV3.  A lot of the positive energy gets pushed NW and eventually merges into a 150 block.  The EPS itself is starting to give in a little bit also.

[snow_wizard]

He’s actually really inconsistent. When we do get cool and wet periods in the summer he usually praises them. I think the main thing he is unhappy with in our climate is the lack of sustained cold anomalies. No one who actually hates cool and gloom in the warm season around here would constantly tout the 1950s as a great decade weather wise.

 

 

 

 

The 50s was utterly amazing in so many ways.  I do like a quick hitting chilly trough in the summer or a clipper.  With those we don't get the warm / wet feel that I dislike.  It's interesting when you look at the 1930s compared to the 50s.  The winters in the 30s were mostly amazing, but the other seasons didn't line up with the winters the way the 1950s did.

[Phil]

I can certainly live with this. No sign the Nino is taking hold of the mid latitude pattern. In fact the PDO currently looks minus which is rather abnormal for a warm ENSO regime, but not unheard of.

 

Meanwhile I have now recorded 42 consecutive low temperatures of 35 or lower. I certainly don't expect to see that repeated so late in the season any time soon. The cloudy nights the past few day have made it harder to keep the streak alive, but it managed.

The PDO isn’t anything right now. Dead neutral/dormant.

 

[snow_wizard]

There are things I do not like/appreciate about this climate, but overall I can't really think of a climate I would prefer over the one up here in the foothills. One of the nice things about this location is the potential for massive snows. The last 6 weeks though a bit stressful were really fun. Obviously Central Oregon can get incredible snows, but it is a little to deserty for me over there. Spokane or the Wallowa Valley have great climates. 

 

Being in Flagstaff last week, they have a pretty great climate. Maybe a little dry for my taste though. 

 

Spokane is on my short list as well.  The northern third of Central and Eastern WA and western MT are up there too.

[snow_wizard]

You sound more like Tim each year. It’s interesting since you have sort of arrived at the same net result for very different reasons.

 

It's all about the cold for me.  I guess the gloom has worn on me.

[Phil]

No sign of any change even at day 15 on the 12Z EPS. This is a very Nino-like early spring pattern if I ever saw one.

 

 

Tim, keep in mind this pattern is not merely niño driven, but also connected to the powerful PV/+NAO (recovered following the SSW) and we’re now seeing the effects of this on the wavetrain.

 

The final warming/reversal to anticyclonic flow will occur in a few weeks and the wave structure will change again. The attribution is never as simple as people make it out to be with regards to ENSO.

[Phil]

I'm feeling 2009 for the rest of this Spring. Not the worst but not great either.

After the PV goes away for the summer and the Asian monsoonal engine replaces the Siberian High, I’m seeing another 1997/2002 type background state.

[Phil]

It's going to be very interesting to see where ENSO goes as the year wears on. We have some warm subsurface that is going to surface pretty soon, but it's still way too early to make any calls for next winter. We've never had a multi year Nino at solar minimum in the period of record so statiscally a Nino isn't likely for next winter. You also have the fact the last multi year Nino wasn't that long ago, and we haven't had a major Nina since. It wouldn't be shocking to see a Nino peak in the spring and then fall through the summer and autumn. Just too early to tell yet. This is one time I want to see a neutral ENSO winter so bad I can taste it. The incredible February we just had leaves us primed for something great next winter if ENSO doesn't mess it up. If we do end up with a major Nino next winter we could still see cold early at least historically speaking. This time we want neutral...maybe even weak Nino would work.

Keep in mind the subsurface is always colder than the surface. When the subsurface is anomalously warm the overall temperature profile below the surface can warm to a similar temperature as the surface which renders upwelling useless in cooling SSTs much. But it doesn’t actually get warmer than the surface.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, keep in mind this pattern is not merely niño driven, but also connected to the powerful PV/+NAO (recovered following the SSW) and we’re now seeing the effects of this on the wavetrain.

 

The final warming/reversal to anticyclonic flow will occur in a few weeks and the wave structure will change again. The attribution is never as simple as people make it out to be with regards to ENSO.

 

 

Yes... I oversimplify because of a lack of understanding.

 

And I would be shocked if we did not see a 3-4 period of very wet weather at some point in April or May or both.   I would bet the $1,000 that I did not lose last month because nobody took me up on that bet.  

[Phil]

I did realize that. I have the exact opposite opinion and I am stoked about the clouds tonight and how it sets us up for tomorrow.

That’s not how the boundary layer works. Just FWIW.

[TT-SEA]

I forgot to account for daylight savings... the EPS now finished around 1:15 p.m. and 1:15 a.m.

 

The 00Z EPS was ridgy overall for the next 15 days as well... like previous runs.

 

Here is the 10-15 day mean:

 

 

 

 

 

Here is the new 12Z EPS 10-15 day mean... that is good consistency. 

 

[Phil]

The NAM index sure is predictive. We saw the negative signature downwelling after the SSW and it flipped the pattern to open February.

 

The PV recovery/+NAM signature also downwelled and is now manifesting in the wavetrain structure in the troposphere (along with the seasonal cycle itself).

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So I said I wouldn't post Grand Canyon pics on here...But...I ended up with some good ones. The clouds coming in last Sunday afternoon were very eerie. 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snapped this on Wednesday morning south of Prescott. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sun is really doing some work today on the snow. I think by Tuesday we'll be done with the solid snow cover. It will linger in the shade for quite some time...

[TT-SEA]

Patio table and chairs are out for the season.

 

 

Never did that with any remaining snow in the yard... but its just too nice out there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Patio table and chairs are out for the season.

 

 

Never did that with any remaining snow in the yard... but its just too nice out there.

 

I see some snow up in the woods there. 

[GHweatherChris]

Nice day

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interestingly the record highs PDX is going to be threatening are from 1960.

[Blizzard777]

64* Lincoln city and sunny

Feels like summer here

Lots of folks out playing on the beach including us

[GHweatherChris]

71 degrees IMBY, what a day!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS is nice.

[GHweatherChris]

Wow, 71 at Hoquiam now and we just bumped to 73!!

[Omegaraptor]

Leaving the coast now. Currently in the Coast Range. Cannon Beach was about 70 when we left and the station closest to my house says 69. Hope we break it! 25 minutes before PDX releases data.

[TT-SEA]

Out running errands in Issaquah... beautiful day. My daughter and I are just lingering outside while mom is shopping.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Out running errands in Issaquah... beautiful day. My daughter and I are just lingering outside while mom is shopping.

 

https://i.postimg.cc/8zFc5F29/20190317-160813.jp

Troll!! JK lol, today is gorgeous!!

[Omegaraptor]

PDX hit 70 today!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JK, 69 at PDX. How satisfying.

[TT-SEA]

PDX hit 70 today!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JK, 69 at PDX. How satisfying.

Official high is not recorded until 5 p.m.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Official high is not recorded until 5 p.m.

 

Salem posting a stunning 70 on the hour!

[snow_wizard]

The PDO isn’t anything right now. Dead neutral/dormant.

 

 

Good to know.  I was just guessing from looking at the SST anoms.

[snow_wizard]

Salem posting a stunning 70 on the hour!

 

I was just thinking how 1949ish this is.  That was arguably the closest match on record for Sea - Tac for Feb and it was followed by major warmth just like this.  Just a couple of weeks earlier on the timing.

[snow_wizard]

Long range GFS is nice.

 

Roller coaster!  My favorite regime in the spring.  The GFS ensemble shows a couple of notable chilly dips now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful evening. The front lawn is emerging, the rest of the yard will soon follow.