March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful evening. The front lawn is emerging, the rest of the yard will soon follow.

 

Trying to be abstract and artistic?

[Jesse]

Beautiful evening. The front lawn is emerging, the rest of the yard will soon follow.

 

Nice Tim filter.

[TT-SEA]

Nice Tim filter.

Yeah... blue yellow extreme is always my choice.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day!

 

[epiceast]

70 & snow yet for Tim?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I live life with no filters.

[TT-SEA]

70 & snow yet for Tim?!

Not quite yet... there is still some snow in the shaded areas. But it was only 66 today.

[MossMan]

What a day! From snow to shorts! Started on some landscape cleanup. Oh and those of you keeping score at home about my Junipers...they are almost clear!

Had a high of 61.

[ShawniganLake]

64/33 here today. Seemed like everyone was out doing something today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Got the easel out and completed a painting this evening.

 

[Cloud]

Nice blooming of the cherry blossoms around here. Though the trees in my neighborhood have yet to open up and surprisingly late. Suspect this week will get them going.

[MossMan]

Looking forward to seeing color in my yard again! I had to look very closely to see the new growth starting on the shrubs, etc.

[Omegaraptor]

The 12z GFS is very aggressive with a ridge at the start of April. They're predicting a 43ºF 00z temp for Portland on March 31, which would easily destroy the record. What are other models showing?

[TT-SEA]

The 12z GFS is very aggressive with a ridge at the start of April. They're predicting a 43ºF 00z temp for Portland on March 31. What are other models showing?

 

Its 14 days away.    You are talking about a specific temperature at a specific time.

 

Literally pick any number you want.  It does not matter.  

[Omegaraptor]

Its 14 days away.    You are talking about a specific temperature at a specific time.

 

Literally pick any number you want.  It does not matter.  

 

90ºF April Fools?

 

I need to stop having so much confidence past 240h.

 

But on another, funner note, would you rather have snow on April 1 or an 85ºF high on April 1?

[GHweatherChris]

What a day! From snow to shorts! Started on some landscape cleanup. Oh and those of you keeping score at home about my Junipers...they are almost clear!

Had a high of 61.

Noone was keeping track Randy lol!!

[TT-SEA]

90ºF April Fools?

 

I need to stop having so much confidence past 240h.

 

But on another, funner note, would you rather have snow on April 1 or an 85ºF high on April 1?

I had snow last April 1st... nothing enjoyable about it at all for me.

[Omegaraptor]

I had snow last April 1st... nothing enjoyable about it at all for me.

Has all your snow melted yet? Surely today had to finish it off.

 

I drove to the Oregon Coast on US 26 today. The highest points had a good 4-6” snow accumulation.

 

EDIT: did not see your earlier post Tim

[epiceast]

Not quite yet... there is still some snow in the shaded areas. But it was only 66 today.

Only 50's here. We don't flip to a surface warm pool like Eastern Washington does. I do wonder if it's possible here in April, I bet some Montana cities can get 70's and deep snow on the ground(& flooding)

[TT-SEA]

Has all your snow melted yet? Surely today had to finish it off.

 

I drove to the Oregon Coast on US 26 today. The highest points had a good 4-6” snow accumulation.

 

Not done yet... its pretty incredible.   I did not think it was possible here.   But then it always rains and washes it away.   There has been no rain here with a temp above 40 since February 1st or 2nd.    

 

I walked through the shaded area this afternoon when it was 66 degrees (and felt hot on the deck)... and the snow was actually crusted over on top.   How??    Its 66 degrees in the shade.   It is noticeably shrinking down every day though even in the woods and deep shaded areas.    Just very slow.   

 

Most of the yard is open now... so its much improved.

[Jesse]

Sort of an interesting temperature gradient from the basin to the west side today, way more than you usually see in late March with a ridge overhead.

 

High of 47 in Pendleton, 55 in The Dalles, 62 at Troutdale, 69 at PDX, and 71 at Vancouver.

[Jesse]

We were out at Catherine Creek on the Washington side of the gorge, between White Salmon and Lyle, today. Much of the heavy snowpack in the lowest elevations of the central gorge is gone now, although there is still a surprising amount in shaded valleys. Higher up (above 1,000') there is still solid snowpack with deep drifts, very thick and icy. Could be sticking around for awhile. It was only around 50 with a stiff east wind around 1,200’ where these were taken.

[Jesse]

Grass widows were making a showing down lower. A few weeks later than usual.

[Jesse]

Seems like PDX ended up way above guidance for their high today. Have to wonder if tomorrow could be a little cooler once the east wind really takes hold. Although with a warmer atmosphere overhead highs well into the 70s the next few days wouldn’t surprise me either.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful day and pleasant night out there.

[MossMan]

Currently 43.

Had a good layer of pollen on things I noticed today as well.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF showed 58 at SEA today and it was 64.

 

The new 00Z ECMWF shows 68 at SEA tomorrow. Looks like the first 70 of the year is almost a given.

[Phil]

Here comes Mr. Niño.

 

[Phil]

And the beginning of the final warming.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

[ShawniganLake]

Decent offshore flow tonight. Agassiz is 56F at 11pm with a NE wind.

[TT-SEA]

Decent offshore flow tonight. Agassiz is 56F at 11pm with a NE wind.

Here too... SEA and North Bend are still at 52.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF for one week from today... obvious trend with each run lately toward more ridging.   

 

Side note... it does show a little rain on Friday night and a few showers on Saturday.      Even a little rain usually causes vegetation to respond quickly after the first warm spell in the spring.

 

[Phil]

Historically the ECMWF has performed better than the GFS during boreal spring under dateline forcing, all else being equal.

 

However, this particular stage of the AAM cycle could expose the ECMWF’s cutoff bias over the NE-Pacific to a greater extent than would otherwise be the case, since the NPAC jet/storm train will be biased poleward.

[Phil]

The favored outcome is a ULL train underneath a temporarily poleward NPAC jet displacement with warm southerly flow over the west. Eventually when the jet moves equatorward again, the pattern will probably become progressive and that offshore troughing/storminess will move into the West/Northwest.

[Phil]

Definitely still have the winter wavetrain active here. Just a classic response to niño forcing under poleward AAM propagation.

 

[TT-SEA]

Good information Phil.

 

I see the 06Z GFS completely caved to the ECMWF and EPS for the weekend and early next as well. 

[TT-SEA]

46 at SEA and 43 here to start the day... it should be quite a bit warmer this afternoon.    Warmest day of the year by a good margin.

[TacomaWaWx]

Will definitely be the warmest day of the year 44 already at my house. Will be the warmest until tomorrow. Yesterday I was at my buddy’s house out in the graham area they have almost 6 inches of snow in the shade still in mid March! It was weird wearing shorts standing outside by the bbq while there’s still snow around

[TT-SEA]

Will definitely be the warmest day of the year 44 already at my house. Will be the warmest until tomorrow. Yesterday I was at my buddy’s house out in the graham area they have almost 6 inches of snow in the shade still in mid March! It was weird wearing shorts standing outside by the bbq while there’s still snow around

Same strange scenario here... sitting on the deck in shorts and a t-shirt and feeling very warm while there is still snow in the yard.

[TT-SEA]

Wide range of temps this morning as warm air filters down in offshore flow in places but not others.

 

Its already 60 degrees in Enuwclaw at dawn.    Also see 57 in Maple Valley.   But just 37 down the road in Auburn.

 

Its 30 in Olympia and 60 in Enuwclaw at the same time.  

 

And 55 degrees in Portland already.