Jump to content

Welcome!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

Mid-Atlantic mid-longrange Discussion March 2019

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#1
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 01 March 2019 - 09:50 AM

Wxmidatlantic

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 532 posts
  • LocationBaltimore, MD
12Z looks good. CMC/NAM trending south. GFS steady. Could be a memorable March.
Included 10day CMC. Says we may get one more.

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_40.png   156.83KB   0 downloads

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_21.png   162.15KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#2
iFred

Posted 01 March 2019 - 09:54 AM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 3441 posts
  • LocationEverett, WA

this reminds me of last march and the sleet storm


  • Phil likes this

#3
iFred

Posted 01 March 2019 - 09:54 AM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 3441 posts
  • LocationEverett, WA

was expecting 12-18 inches of snow, the models even supported it - got six inches of sleet and no snow


  • Wxmidatlantic likes this

#4
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 01 March 2019 - 11:12 AM

Wxmidatlantic

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 532 posts
  • LocationBaltimore, MD

was expecting 12-18 inches of snow, the models even supported it - got six inches of sleet and no snow


It happens, its that x-factor in every storm. That's why we stare at radars. Reality can be much better than digital estimates.

Looks like NYC may have a good year this week...

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#5
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 01 March 2019 - 12:45 PM

Wxmidatlantic

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 532 posts
  • LocationBaltimore, MD
Sweet....

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_26.png   158.88KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#6
antipex

Posted 01 March 2019 - 12:57 PM

antipex

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 217 posts
  • LocationSE Gresham, OR, 350 ft / NYC

I'm usually over in the PNW threads but I'm in NYC for the month – what's going with the local NWS office? I've seen them repeatedly forecast dry or rain only to cave to snow at the last minute. And I'm seeing models forecast snow in the coming days without much mention from NWS...


  • Phil likes this

#7
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 01 March 2019 - 02:13 PM

Wxmidatlantic

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 532 posts
  • LocationBaltimore, MD

I'm usually over in the PNW threads but I'm in NYC for the month – what's going with the local NWS office? I've seen them repeatedly forecast dry or rain only to cave to snow at the last minute. And I'm seeing models forecast snow in the coming days without much mention from NWS...


They have a protocol. It is a conservative mesh. They get paid the same.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#8
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 01 March 2019 - 02:31 PM

Wxmidatlantic

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 532 posts
  • LocationBaltimore, MD
Low pressure near Lumberton NC. We are getting to the part were Goddie Locks meets the bears.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#9
Phil

Posted 01 March 2019 - 03:31 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26722 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

I'm usually over in the PNW threads but I'm in NYC for the month – what's going with the local NWS office? I've seen them repeatedly forecast dry or rain only to cave to snow at the last minute. And I'm seeing models forecast snow in the coming days without much mention from NWS...


Different culture over here..4-8” of snow won’t cripple the infrastructure so unless it’s a snowmageddon type nor’easter dumping 20”+ in a day, more time is devoted to getting the forecast and probabilities correct, as opposed to freaking out the public, which just leads to traffic jams and road rage.

Our WFO puts out HWO statements ahead of time to notify the public during the monitoring stages of snowstorms while leaning conservative in the forecasts until a day of two beforehand. It has worked out very well to this point, even if it’s less “fun” for wx weenies. :)
  • antipex and Wxmidatlantic like this

Personal Weather Station Live Stream.
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily


#10
Phil

Posted 01 March 2019 - 06:28 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26722 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
Some random wet snowflakes mixing back in here as this bright banding moves overhead. Still 90% rain, 33*F.

59H6KkQ.gif
  • Wxmidatlantic likes this

Personal Weather Station Live Stream.
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily


#11
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 04 March 2019 - 02:51 AM

Wxmidatlantic

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 532 posts
  • LocationBaltimore, MD
Last dance...

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png   178.14KB   0 downloads
  • Phil likes this

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#12
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 07 March 2019 - 07:09 AM

Wxmidatlantic

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 532 posts
  • LocationBaltimore, MD

Looks like 1-2" of snow will fall Friday. It will be mainly an atmospheric event. Accumulations 1/2 to 1" on grass, cartops.

 

If that forecast doesn't get us hammered, nothing will....lol


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#13
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 11 March 2019 - 01:46 AM

Wxmidatlantic

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 532 posts
  • LocationBaltimore, MD

Nothing goes better with coffee than a fantasy late March Blizzard...

 

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png   165.52KB   0 downloads


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."