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Heartland Storm Visits Mid-Atlantic March 3-4 2019

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#1
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 March 2019 - 03:28 AM

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Winter Storm watches are up but not for the metro. Tight gradient for snow totals. Looks like a lot of nowcasting with this one.

CMC/Euro heading south.

Attached File  SN_000-084_0000.gif   141.17KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#2
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 March 2019 - 05:45 AM

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Euro still creeping SE. 1-95 north and west. NYC in the cross hairs.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#3
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 March 2019 - 08:35 AM

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All models track surface low from Louisiana to Norfolk Va. Great track. 12Z NAM is doing what it does inside 24hrs. Cancelled snow in Eastern Kansas. Don't believe it.

CMC still the jackpot. Looks like a real hair puller. Nowcasting Storm for sure..

Attached File  SN_000-084_0000.gif   162.31KB   0 downloads

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_9.png   137.77KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#4
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 March 2019 - 10:50 AM

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CMC doubled down. We are in the game...

Attached File  SN_000-048_0000.gif   135.35KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#5
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 March 2019 - 12:32 PM

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18Z NAM digging south...

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_17.png   145.75KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#6
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 March 2019 - 01:45 PM

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Sorry, when i get druk, whisky lullaby, Allison Krause...
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#7
Phil

Posted 02 March 2019 - 04:04 PM

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^^ Nothing wrong with s**t posting on a weather forum when fire meets ice.

As for this storm..have to say I’m bearish for my particular location..you N/W folks might do very well, but again, this area sucks when we’re waiting for the low level cold to drain in. And dewpoints/temps are both extremely elevated right now, by pre-snowstorm standards.

I’d love to be proven wrong.
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#8
antipex

Posted 02 March 2019 - 05:18 PM

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12Z ECMWF is slightly lighter on totals compared to 00Z but still looks good. I like the ensemble agreement too for NYC – at least 6"!

 

Attached File  ecmwf_tsnow_neng_9.png   175.1KB   0 downloads

Attached File  KNYC_2019030212_eps_snow_240.png   140.6KB   0 downloads


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#9
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 March 2019 - 06:17 PM

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NWS clears the metro, let's get it on...

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_11.png   136.44KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#10
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 March 2019 - 06:26 PM

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Attached File  SN_000-084_0000.gif   141.32KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#11
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 March 2019 - 07:31 PM

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Attached File  SN_000-084_0000.gif   167.15KB   0 downloads
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#12
Phil

Posted 02 March 2019 - 08:43 PM

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Sloooow advection here with light NW flow.

Down to 43/35. Terrible still..wetbulbs in the upper 30s.

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#13
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 03 March 2019 - 05:10 AM

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Warm start. Snow begins in Virginia. Temp 37.6F

Attached File  2019030313_metars_bwi.gif   40.93KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#14
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 03 March 2019 - 09:57 AM

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2S- all snow... Temp went from 38 to 34 in 15 minutes.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#15
weatherfan2012

Posted 03 March 2019 - 09:58 AM

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^^ Nothing wrong with s**t posting on a weather forum when fire meets ice.
As for this storm..have to say I’m bearish for my particular location..you N/W folks might do very well, but again, this area sucks when we’re waiting for the low level cold to drain in. And dewpoints/temps are both extremely elevated right now, by pre-snowstorm standards.
I’d love to be proven wrong.

this winter would not be as bad to deal with but the fact it was so hype up by so many of the pro mets and so much let down from the models is what makes this winter suck so badly at least for north and west this event looks to be varfing.

#16
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 03 March 2019 - 10:43 AM

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1/2S we are getting hammered.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#17
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 03 March 2019 - 11:40 AM

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Ground is covered, trees snow capped. 1/2SF, temp 32.8F

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#18
antipex

Posted 03 March 2019 - 01:27 PM

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Snowing lightly in downtown Manhattan. Still seems to be upper 30s with pretty low dewpoints.
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#19
Phil

Posted 03 March 2019 - 03:39 PM

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Rain.

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#20
Phil

Posted 03 March 2019 - 04:42 PM

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Snowing lightly in downtown Manhattan. Still seems to be upper 30s with pretty low dewpoints.


Some heavier frontogenic echoes developing down here tight now. It’s rain for us but these should propagate up to NYC later tonight and increase your precip rates from their presently-anemic levels.

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#21
antipex

Posted 03 March 2019 - 05:41 PM

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It’s sticking on all surfaces in Brooklyn.
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#22
weatherfan2012

Posted 03 March 2019 - 05:56 PM

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Some heavier frontogenic echoes developing down here tight now. It’s rain for us but these should propagate up to NYC later tonight and increase your precip rates from their presently-anemic levels.

Mike Masco was going with 9 inchs of snow in Baltimore last night :lol: that just bad forecasting period.
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#23
Phil

Posted 03 March 2019 - 10:23 PM

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Flipped to snow at the end.

No accumulation.

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#24
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 04 March 2019 - 02:17 AM

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Flipped to snow at the end.
No accumulation.

Yea a bust for sure. 1 1/2" on front side, sleet ZR- then R in the middle. Got up last night it was all gone. This morning about an inch on the ground.

22 people lost their life in Alabama last night. Sucked up as they prepared for dinner....

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#25
antipex

Posted 04 March 2019 - 02:49 AM

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Massive bust in Lower Manhattan. Not much snow here. NWS has a report of 3.8” in Central Park so I’ll see what it’s like in midtown later this morning.

It’s nice to know busts aren’t just limited to the PNW :)
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