[seattleweatherguy]

Will it be a really hot like 2009 and recent years or will we finally get some relief?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Will it be a really hot like 2009 and recent years or will we finally get some relief?

 

It will be an inferno again. Our new summer normal. Cold season will be far more interesting in the coming years.

[Jesse]

Hottest summer of the 21st century to date. Zero rainfall from late March until early November.

#perfection

[Phil]

Could take a 1997 route. The QBO/warm pool structure favors a moderate outcome (no outrageous ridging) but it doesn’t look like 2011 either, given +ENSO and what should be a slow walk to a GOA/Alaska trough tendency.

At least there will be somewhat of a moisture tap during the summer months this year, as opposed to the last several years where it was completely diverted.

[MossMan]

Cool and wet.

[Jesse]

Cool and wet.

Those don’t happen anymore. The best we can hope for is average, but that will still have you and Tim complaining nonstop.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those don’t happen anymore. The best we can hope for is average, but that will still have you and Tim complaining nonstop.

 

When was the last cool summer we had? 1993? 2011 sort of.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Will it be a really hot like 2009 and recent years or will we finally get some relief?

I've only started looking at some analogs the past few days so don't quite have a full read on this summer. I'll have a better idea in about a month or so. My initial lean will have to be more of a neutral summer, maybe even slightly cooler than normal. It pains me to say this because I love warm/hot anomalies but the June Gloom might be in full effect this summer.

[Jesse]

When was the last cool summer we had? 1993? 2011 sort of.

2010-12 were all technically cooler than average. But they don’t really hold a candle to some of the true green tomato summers of the 1980s and 90s. Not to mention pre-1980.

[Phil]

Maybe we’ll pay off the 2013-18 karma all at once and go full +ENSO/cold summer like 1993.

IIRC 1992/93 was a pretty good winter out there despite +ENSO/+PDO..and the AMO was negative..and there was no classic -AO/-EPO either..and the QBO matches!

#UhOh

[TT-SEA]

Maybe we’ll pay off the 2013-18 karma all at once and go full +ENSO/cold summer like 1993.

IIRC 1992/93 was a pretty good winter out there despite +ENSO/+PDO..and the AMO was negative..and there was no classic -AO/-EPO either..and the QBO matches!

#UhOh

 

 

You mention 1983 and/or 1993 almost every spring.  

 

I could go back and show you examples.   

[Phil]

You mention 1983 and/or 1993 almost every spring.

I could go back and show you examples.

Omg. That was a sarcastic post, dude. You’re such so easy to trigger.

And I never brought up 1993 or 1983 last year. Those were not good QBO/IPWP analogs.

[TT-SEA]

Omg. That was a sarcastic post, dude. You’re such so easy to trigger.

And I never brought up 1993 or 1983 last year. Those were not good QBO/IPWP analogs.

 

 

Yeah... I think you skipped last year.    I was not triggered... I just pointed it out.   

[Phil]

Yeah... I think you skipped last year. I was not triggered... I just pointed it out.

If anything, I was half-jabbing the cold crew with that one.

Of course, leave it to you to take it literally.

[Eujunga]

Hottest summer of the 21st century to date. Zero rainfall from late March until early November.

 

It has stopped raining in Eugene already

[Jesse]

It has stopped raining in Eugene already

You have another week and a half tops of rainfall chances before it finally gets really nice again. Soak it in!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene is already running about a 11" deficit on the water year. Even after a wet February. The past few years have been ridiculous down there. I kind of wonder if there is an issue with their gauge though you think they would have figured it out by now. The Fern Ridge station which is less than 5 miles away has tracked closer to the rest of the Willamette Valley over the past few years. 

[TT-SEA]

Eugene is already running about a 11" deficit on the water year. Even after a wet February. The past few years have been ridiculous down there. I kind of wonder if there is an issue with their gauge though you think they would have figured it out by now. The Fern Ridge station which is less than 5 miles away has tracked closer to the rest of the Willamette Valley over the past few years. 

 

I thought this came up before... something about the official station being in a geographically drier area but using normals from a wetter area if I remember correctly.  

[snow_wizard]

It will be an inferno again. Our new summer normal. Cold season will be far more interesting in the coming years.

 

Who knows.  The atmosphere received a shocking blow this winter.  It might reshuffle the summer pattern.  It all comes down to whether the Pacific Ridge or the 4 Corners High ends up being the more dominant.  With the Pacific Ridge the summers are very dry and relatively cool.

[snow_wizard]

Those don’t happen anymore. The best we can hope for is average, but that will still have you and Tim complaining nonstop.

 

No reason whatsoever we couldn't go back to cool summers again.  It's all cyclical.

[Omegaraptor]

So it’s looking like we won’t see a springfall like 1993 but we won’t see a scorcher like 2018 again?

If the pattern favors a non-smoky, average summer like 1997 I will gladly take that.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Been over 2 months since the last post since there's no sign of summer-like weather arriving any time in the foreseeable future even though Memorial Day Weekend is next weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Been over 2 months since the last post since there's no sign of summer-like weather arriving any time in the foreseeable future even though Memorial Day Weekend is next weekend.

 

 

Memorial Day weekend might be fairly summer-like up here if we are lucky.

 

[Mr Marine Layer]

Still a huge Rex Block with the high centered over southern Canada and the low centered over California.