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Summer 2019 discussion

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#1
seattleweatherguy

Posted 02 March 2019 - 09:21 PM

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Will it be a really hot like 2009 and recent years or will we finally get some relief?

#2
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 March 2019 - 10:51 PM

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Will it be a really hot like 2009 and recent years or will we finally get some relief?

 

It will be an inferno again. Our new summer normal. Cold season will be far more interesting in the coming years.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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#3
Jesse

Posted 02 March 2019 - 10:58 PM

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Hottest summer of the 21st century to date. Zero rainfall from late March until early November.

#perfection

#4
Phil

Posted 03 March 2019 - 04:03 PM

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Could take a 1997 route. The QBO/warm pool structure favors a moderate outcome (no outrageous ridging) but it doesn’t look like 2011 either, given +ENSO and what should be a slow walk to a GOA/Alaska trough tendency.

At least there will be somewhat of a moisture tap during the summer months this year, as opposed to the last several years where it was completely diverted.
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#5
MossMan

Posted 05 March 2019 - 10:06 PM

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Cool and wet.

#6
Jesse

Posted 05 March 2019 - 10:13 PM

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Cool and wet.


Those don’t happen anymore. The best we can hope for is average, but that will still have you and Tim complaining nonstop. :)



#7
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 06 March 2019 - 12:19 PM

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Those don’t happen anymore. The best we can hope for is average, but that will still have you and Tim complaining nonstop. :)

 

When was the last cool summer we had? 1993? 2011 sort of.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#8
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 06 March 2019 - 05:15 PM

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Will it be a really hot like 2009 and recent years or will we finally get some relief?


I've only started looking at some analogs the past few days so don't quite have a full read on this summer. I'll have a better idea in about a month or so. My initial lean will have to be more of a neutral summer, maybe even slightly cooler than normal. It pains me to say this because I love warm/hot anomalies but the June Gloom might be in full effect this summer.
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Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#9
Jesse

Posted 06 March 2019 - 06:08 PM

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When was the last cool summer we had? 1993? 2011 sort of.


2010-12 were all technically cooler than average. But they don’t really hold a candle to some of the true green tomato summers of the 1980s and 90s. Not to mention pre-1980.

#10
Phil

Posted 06 March 2019 - 06:30 PM

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Maybe we’ll pay off the 2013-18 karma all at once and go full +ENSO/cold summer like 1993.

IIRC 1992/93 was a pretty good winter out there despite +ENSO/+PDO..and the AMO was negative..and there was no classic -AO/-EPO either..and the QBO matches!

#UhOh
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#11
TT-SEA

Posted 06 March 2019 - 09:12 PM

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Maybe we’ll pay off the 2013-18 karma all at once and go full +ENSO/cold summer like 1993.

IIRC 1992/93 was a pretty good winter out there despite +ENSO/+PDO..and the AMO was negative..and there was no classic -AO/-EPO either..and the QBO matches!

#UhOh

 

 

You mention 1983 and/or 1993 almost every spring.   :lol:

 

I could go back and show you examples.   


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#12
Phil

Posted 06 March 2019 - 10:50 PM

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You mention 1983 and/or 1993 almost every spring. :lol:

I could go back and show you examples.


Omg. That was a sarcastic post, dude. You’re such so easy to trigger. :lol:

And I never brought up 1993 or 1983 last year. Those were not good QBO/IPWP analogs.
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#13
TT-SEA

Posted 06 March 2019 - 10:57 PM

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Omg. That was a sarcastic post, dude. You’re such so easy to trigger. :lol:

And I never brought up 1993 or 1983 last year. Those were not good QBO/IPWP analogs.

 

 

Yeah... I think you skipped last year.    I was not triggered... I just pointed it out.   


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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#14
Phil

Posted 06 March 2019 - 11:17 PM

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Yeah... I think you skipped last year. I was not triggered... I just pointed it out.


If anything, I was half-jabbing the cold crew with that one.

Of course, leave it to you to take it literally. :)
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#15
Eujunga

Posted 07 March 2019 - 08:56 AM

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Hottest summer of the 21st century to date. Zero rainfall from late March until early November.

 

It has stopped raining in Eugene already :D


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#16
Jesse

Posted 07 March 2019 - 09:12 AM

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It has stopped raining in Eugene already :D


You have another week and a half tops of rainfall chances before it finally gets really nice again. Soak it in!

#17
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 March 2019 - 09:21 PM

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Eugene is already running about a 11" deficit on the water year. Even after a wet February. The past few years have been ridiculous down there. I kind of wonder if there is an issue with their gauge though you think they would have figured it out by now. The Fern Ridge station which is less than 5 miles away has tracked closer to the rest of the Willamette Valley over the past few years. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#18
TT-SEA

Posted 08 March 2019 - 08:21 AM

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Eugene is already running about a 11" deficit on the water year. Even after a wet February. The past few years have been ridiculous down there. I kind of wonder if there is an issue with their gauge though you think they would have figured it out by now. The Fern Ridge station which is less than 5 miles away has tracked closer to the rest of the Willamette Valley over the past few years. 

 

I thought this came up before... something about the official station being in a geographically drier area but using normals from a wetter area if I remember correctly.  


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#19
snow_wizard

Posted 08 March 2019 - 10:12 PM

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It will be an inferno again. Our new summer normal. Cold season will be far more interesting in the coming years.

 

Who knows.  The atmosphere received a shocking blow this winter.  It might reshuffle the summer pattern.  It all comes down to whether the Pacific Ridge or the 4 Corners High ends up being the more dominant.  With the Pacific Ridge the summers are very dry and relatively cool.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#20
snow_wizard

Posted 08 March 2019 - 10:15 PM

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Those don’t happen anymore. The best we can hope for is average, but that will still have you and Tim complaining nonstop. :)

 

No reason whatsoever we couldn't go back to cool summers again.  It's all cyclical.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#21
Omegaraptor

Posted 15 March 2019 - 11:34 AM

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So it’s looking like we won’t see a springfall like 1993 but we won’t see a scorcher like 2018 again?

If the pattern favors a non-smoky, average summer like 1997 I will gladly take that.
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#22
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 19 May 2019 - 05:49 PM

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Been over 2 months since the last post since there's no sign of summer-like weather arriving any time in the foreseeable future even though Memorial Day Weekend is next weekend.



#23
TT-SEA

Posted 19 May 2019 - 11:01 PM

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Been over 2 months since the last post since there's no sign of summer-like weather arriving any time in the foreseeable future even though Memorial Day Weekend is next weekend.

 

 

Memorial Day weekend might be fairly summer-like up here if we are lucky.

 

ecmwf-t2max-conus2-29-1.png


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#24
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 22 May 2019 - 08:54 AM

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Still a huge Rex Block with the high centered over southern Canada and the low centered over California.