Front Ranger Posted January 20, 2015 Report Share Posted January 20, 2015 I still have faith that the pattern in February will be better. These long ridging episodes rarely persist longer than 3-4 weeks. Obviously, the overall pattern this winter has been west coast Ridgy, but it's been broken up by a couple of colder/troughier periods...one in November, and one in late Dec/early Jan. I'll be surprised if we don't see a cooler pattern setting in by early Feb. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted January 20, 2015 Report Share Posted January 20, 2015 I still have faith that the pattern in February will be better. These long ridging episodes rarely persist longer than 3-4 weeks. Obviously, the overall pattern this winter has been west coast Ridgy, but it's been broken up by a couple of colder/troughier periods...one in November, and one in late Dec/early Jan. I'll be surprised if we don't see a cooler pattern setting in by early Feb.This ridgy pattern has been much more dominant than normal over the last three winters. I hope that you are right that the pattern in February is better, and we are due for a much more active pattern after the long January dry spell over much of the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 20, 2015 Report Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think we're going to need a shake up in the tropics to kick start a change in this ridge. My view is that whatever ridging will be stifled with a better focusing and consolidation of more primary cold west of the Rockies North, through Alaska and further west. — These wintertime ridges aren't a product of subsidence more. But more a/ the void left where cold doesn't move. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 .. "AR", sorry. ? — This with otherwise, with my mention of subsidence, my having been pointing to, what is more typically, as one at least, main element of ridge development. .. As I've suggested to some degree above, I tend to discount the whole "pressure block" idea, tending more to considering colder air's involvement, i.e. if again, where it's caused to move when. And then more in line specifically with what I've said above, this idea - of mine, tending to show itself more in the main colder-season months of the year. And if more in summer, with basic subsidence appreciated as working to build pressure, [and] so lending to [the idea of] "blocking", even still here, if appreciated better, colder air movement being what ultimately either whether, "breaks down", or otherwise works to "shear up" whatever ridging. Add to this, and if with my not being that "up on" .. "tropical forcing" (so called.), my own perception more general where pondering the idea (if more only.) being that a more general pressure addition is (might be, wherever.), working to enhance whatever is present main and/ or more general ridge-wise, more than might be due to whatever subsidence. Whenever. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Heavy snow squalls late yesterday evening caused a hellish commute home...roads were terrible. Only about 2.5" fell, but it was mostly in a 90 minute window. Low of 4 this morning. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 What was the temps when the snow was falling? Upper 20s. Roads were wet briefly and then froze over with the snow. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 "AR" = atmospheric river. When they hit the Pacific Northwest, we call them "pineapple express" .. Oh yeh. Now I'm remembering. {.. I hate acronyms. ? .. Also the term "pineapple express", where and when used to describe certainly many of the more "express" routings of more dense moisture, lined up and pointed more toward the (I'll play these, here.) "Pacific Northwest", quite often not having originated any where near to Hawaii, but further north. Many times, much further. "The Pineapple Express" the "A-Train" where considering the idea, had been, in my view, that connected to the 1996-7 El Nino; running "straight" from Hawaii .. to Sacramento, where I'd been at the time.} — I'll have to check the reference above as you've used it, and relative to what more specifically. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 A little history for SLC. http://heritage.utah.gov/history/1948s-unforgettable-winter Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nice readIt's a whole different world out here this winter. Its been kind of chilly at times, big story is the lack of snow though with only 8" still at my place on the winter. Coldest reading was 4F in December. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's a whole different world out here this winter. Its been kind of chilly at times, big story is the lack of snow though with only 8" still at my place on the winter. Coldest reading was 4F in December.The big story for the majority of the West is the same as it has been for your area: a general lack of mountain snowfall extending from BC southward to Socal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Referring back to your "tropical shake up" / "AR", idea above Chris, .. @Per my look at "Atmospheric River" [channeling] events / occurrence in the past, I've noted—relative to my own main study, colder air mass movement and distribution, more—that these setups generally occur where and when main colder air from the north is moving more broadbased south, down through the more Northern Central Pacific, and less meridionally.. due part and part, to both, its more over-all lesser force of movement at the time, together with, its either whether just having transitioned out of, or either, being a bit more along into, having been moving more zonally east. @ Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 We've managed a slightly below normal month to this point, but that's about to change. Epic Western Ridge torch headed this way...looks like temps in the mid/upper 60s for a couple days early next week. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 We've managed a slightly below normal month to this point, but that's about to change. Epic Western Ridge torch headed this way...looks like temps in the mid/upper 60s for a couple days early next week.How has the snowfall been in the Rockies this season relative to normal so far? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 How has the snowfall been in the Rockies this season relative to normal so far? It's been below average in the mountains, but not terrible. Here along the Front Range, about the same. I'm at about 19" on the season, about 65% of normal for this point. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's been below average in the mountains, but not terrible. Here along the Front Range, about the same. I'm at about 19" on the season, about 65% of normal for this point.So, it seems that everyone has been below normal in the snowfall department this year, but your area and the Rockies have fared better than the Sierras have to this point, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 - My perspective, ... A more decent Nino would have generated plenty of main moisture—more obviously. But with its having "dwindled", along with the idea, otherwise and additionally, of there also not having been much cold at all more primary more upstream—to have offset whatever main moisture, … .. No "snow" (much less.), no rain. (Also, much less.) — Why. / Why the pattern, why the ridging. ? .. The main reason, factors then, the position/s of the more main strong-holds this year, of main more primary cold through the higher latitudes, this set against more on the warm side, with the more initially strong Nino's having dwindled—and if from here going to perhaps, Why did it. ? .. And then, why had (or has.) cold more primary set up the way it has this winter. ? Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looking like we could make a run at 70 tomorrow. The last time DEN hit 70 in January was 2009. The monthly record is 74 from 1997. The record for Boulder is 74 from 1925. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2015 Inverted here but mountains look to be really warm tomorrow with temperatures aloft reaching record values for this time of year. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 26, 2015 Report Share Posted January 26, 2015 .. More generic Derrick, but more across the board, I'm looking at new and fresh cold from the north beginning on the 31st. — More broad-based, and moving toward more zonal. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2015 .. More generic Derrick, but more across the board, I'm looking at new and fresh cold from the north beginning on the 31st. — More broad-based, and moving toward more zonal. So does this mean to say a broad trough will impact the area before the pattern goes more zonal after that? At least at present models aren't looking to change anything up so I hope you are right. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 26, 2015 Report Share Posted January 26, 2015 Kind of what I'd meant to suggest, if by and with the "more generic" idea, my more general projection here being more in line with the idea that one may. Depending on what's more upstream consolidated and in place more northward more main cold wise at the time. — Alaska's colder conditions over the recent past few days being a good sign generally, for something more significant at all to move south between the Far West and more where you are. .. And more "broad-based", with whatever cold starting south doing so with a gradually more stepped up movement eastward, and so "more zonally", more clearly stated. 3 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2015 Kind of what I'd meant to suggest, if by and with the "more generic" idea, my more general projection here being more in line with the idea that one may. Depending on what's more upstream consolidated and in place more northward more main cold wise at the time. — Alaska's colder conditions over the recent past few days being a good sign generally, for something more significant at all to move south between the Far West and more where you are. .. And more "broad-based", with whatever cold starting south doing so with a gradually more stepped up movement eastward, and so "more zonally", more clearly stated. Ok got it, thanks. I sure hope you are right! Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 27, 2015 Report Share Posted January 27, 2015 DEN topped out at 71 today, two degrees short of the daily record from 1982. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halofromajo Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Ok got it, thanks. I sure hope you are right!Way long term on the 0z GFS, but Nostradamus type prediction there richard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 By hitting 75 today, DEN set their record for warmest January day on record. This comes just two months after setting their record for coldest November day on record. Closest monthly records have ever occurred. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Way long term on the 0z GFS, but Nostradamus type prediction there richard.Good to hear. — I don't in fact "check" the models, so don't know what you might be looking at more in particularly. And so, hope some of what you are is something in part at least here more Far West. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 30, 2015 Report Share Posted January 30, 2015 .. Maybe check my post most recent tacked into the "Approaching Pattern Discussion" thread, main "The West" section here. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=66813 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2015 From the model side of things we still don't have much to cheer for. The pattern is very much awash with weak passing systems and neither strong ridging nor troughing for a few days before ridging returns next week. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 30, 2015 Report Share Posted January 30, 2015 .. If I may here Derrick (With / or otherwise looked at, together with, all that I've said or pointed to above here previously more recently.), ... One main variable that I'm looking at, relative to what I'm hearing (and if seeing to some extent.) more only at this point more main "models" output wise—as I don't consult them, .. is the idea, as I view it (qualifying here.), that the force of movement of colder air looked at more generally, more across the board—more fully east to west more hemispheric scope, is decreasing. — Making it more difficult for "the models" to interpolate future movement of cold. (My view.) Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2015 .. If I may here Derrick (With / or otherwise looked at, together with, all that I've said or pointed to above here previously more recently.), ... One main variable that I'm looking at, relative to what I'm hearing (and if seeing to some extent.) more only at this point more main "models" output wise—as I don't consult them, .. is the idea, as I view it (qualifying here.), that the force of movement of colder air looked at more generally, more across the board—more fully east to west more hemispheric scope, is decreasing. — Making it more difficult for "the models" to interpolate future movement of cold. (My view.)It's a good point. Seems like atmospheric signals would be masked a little more without any obvious driving forces right now. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 30, 2015 Report Share Posted January 30, 2015 -.. In fact a third element of what I note where working to follow colder air's broader both movement and distribution, i.e. more than its main more latitudinal and longitudinal propensities where considering these ideas, .. I've found that where and when cold's more over-all force of movement is / appears to be .. decreasing, and having been for a while (A week or so. / Fuller duration more general from 10 days to two weeks.), [that] the main "area" of different main areas, of colder air mass looked at more horizontally, tends to increase notably and significantly. A factor in what I'd suggested above back on the 25th where having pointed to a potentially more "broad-based" character perhaps where looking at cold's spread more southward in places—"beginning" tomorrow. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 - .. So what are you calling this Jared. ? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc21.gif http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-105.27..... — How do people refer to this type of advent more generally, there in and around where you are. ? .. Things more systemic, moving more up from the south farther. (?) Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted February 2, 2015 Report Share Posted February 2, 2015 (.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/177-california-weather-climate/?p=68266 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted February 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2015 A couple of systems moving by tomorrow night through Wednesday morning. No snow but some rain does appear likely in the valleys. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted February 6, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2015 High of 65 in SLC today broke the record for the earliest its ever been that warm, tomorrow looks to be even warmer. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted February 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2015 68F today, another record high. Earliest 68F on record. The earliest 69F (which is the monthly record) isn't until a full 22 days later on the 28th. Completely in a league of its own to see this kind of warmth so soon. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted February 7, 2015 Report Share Posted February 7, 2015 68F today, another record high. Earliest 68F on record. The earliest 69F (which is the monthly record) isn't until a full 22 days later on the 28th. Completely in a league of its own to see this kind of warmth so soon.There has been something really out of whack with the weather patterns across the West for the last 2 or 3 years and this warmth is part of it. At least significant rain is finally falling in places that desperately need it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2015 Report Share Posted February 7, 2015 68F today, another record high. Earliest 68F on record. The earliest 69F (which is the monthly record) isn't until a full 22 days later on the 28th. Completely in a league of its own to see this kind of warmth so soon.How far back does their period of record go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted February 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2015 How far back does their period of record go?I think its about 1930 for the airport location. But before that there was another station somewhere nearby that goes back to about 1880. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted February 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2015 Already 65 so another record high in the books. This morning the low was a mind-blowing 58F, remember the average high is 40F! Even though I don't think that will hold through midnight if it does it would destroy the previous record of 43F and the monthly record of 51F. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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