Mountain West Discussion

[Scott]

March was hot in Mountain West 

 

It was our hottest March in Craig, Colorado:

 

http://www.summitpost.org/images/original/997072.JPG

 

We did manage 3 days of 0F or below, but it was a very remarkably warm month.  The 75F on March 18 was the warmest we have ever gotten that early in the year.   The snow also completely melted from yard earlier than any other date.   I was in Jamaica part of the time, so I don't know the exact date it melted, but when we got back on the 26th, there was no snow at all in the yard.  The next earliest date that the snow has completely melted from the yard was March 31st.

 

We also had four mornings at the official station where it didn't drop below freezing, which is extremely unusual.  38F on the 22nd was also the warmest March low on record at the official weather station.  

[Kayla]

Had very heavy snow here last night that quickly dropped 1-2" of snow as a upper level disturbance moved through. Definitely been an active start to the month!

 

Beautiful sunrise this morning after a low of 21º and after the freezing fog dissipated.

 

[Black Hole]

This was the morning after my snow event a few days ago. All gone now!

[Front Ranger]

No sign of any precip for at least the next week here.  <_>

[Black Hole]

A couple of interesting graphs of the Great Salt Lake level here in Utah. Levels have declined each year for the past few with drought conditions. This year finally provided a well above normal winter and water levels have surged. Hopefully the lake will rise a few more feet given all the snow in the mountains.

[epiceast]

A couple of interesting graphs of the Great Salt Lake level here in Utah. Levels have declined each year for the past few with drought conditions. This year finally provided a well above normal winter and water levels have surged. Hopefully the lake will rise a few more feet given all the snow in the mountains.

Does the Salt Lake level affect anything? I feel like it shouldn't... because it's a salty lake.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Does the Salt Lake level affect anything? I feel like it shouldn't... because it's a salty lake.

Well in 1983 it flooded.

[Black Hole]

Does the Salt Lake level affect anything? I feel like it shouldn't... because it's a salty lake.

The Salt Lake is a part of the local economy. Lots of boaters and salt shrimp fishing. There are parks around and on the lake that do better when the lake is higher. The lake plays a roll in precipitation around here and is responsible on average for 10% of winter precipitation. If the lake is too low then dust blows off of it and causes air quality issues. The lake keeps temperatures somewhat more moderate on average. 

 

Finally, it just looks better when it is full. That's what I know offhand. 

[Scott]

 The lake plays a roll in precipitation around here and is responsible on average for 10% of winter precipitation. 

 

 

I have always thought that this is the biggest factor.  Since the lake is 1/3 of the size it was in the 1980's, I wonder what lake level the 10% is based on?   The lake definitely has a smaller effect the smaller the surface area is.  

 

With a growing population in an already arid area, a 10% loss in average precipitation/snowpack  could have a huge effect on the area.

 

Snowfall has decreased greatly in the last decade in the Salt Lake City area; more so than the surrounding regions.  Lower lake levels definitely contributed some of this, but I wonder how much?

[Black Hole]

I have always thought that this is the biggest factor.  Since the lake is 1/3 of the size it was in the 1980's, I wonder what lake level the 10% is based on?   The lake definitely has a smaller effect the smaller the surface area is.  

 

With a growing population in an already arid area, a 10% loss in average precipitation/snowpack  could have a huge effect on the area.

 

Snowfall has decreased greatly in the last decade in the Salt Lake City area; more so than the surrounding regions.  Lower lake levels definitely contributed some of this, but I wonder how much?

One of my professors at the U of U has done some studies on the factors that affect lake effect, I will try and find those papers as they may interest you. I recall that he found that pattern is much more important than lake size, but even so, its clear that the smaller lake means less intense lake effect at the least, and we've seen that the last few years.

 

I don't know what period the 10% is based on off hand, but I would also be interesting in seeing how much as well. 

[Kayla]

Complicated forecast over the next 48 hours here. Strong cold front moves through this evening bringing heavy rain changing over to snow. The big question is when. NWS seems to think snow levels will not drop until most of the moisture moves through with a dusting to 1" at best. Most of the models show a switch over to snow by 10pm with accumulating snow beginning around 2am.

 

I think we'll see heavy enough precip rates to get 1-3" of snowfall tonight/tomorrow morning.

 

Another shortwave moves through tomorrow night which should be all snow and could drop another 2-4" of snowfall. Active April continues.

[Black Hole]

The same cold front will pass through here but it looks dry, big temperature drop though. 

[Front Ranger]

After a brief respite at the beginning of the month, we're back to May-like temps and bone dry weather here. Been an exceptionally boring last 90 days.

[epiceast]

I have always thought that this is the biggest factor.  Since the lake is 1/3 of the size it was in the 1980's, I wonder what lake level the 10% is based on?   The lake definitely has a smaller effect the smaller the surface area is.  

 

With a growing population in an already arid area, a 10% loss in average precipitation/snowpack  could have a huge effect on the area.

 

Snowfall has decreased greatly in the last decade in the Salt Lake City area; more so than the surrounding regions.  Lower lake levels definitely contributed some of this, but I wonder how much?

How did the lake shrink by 2/3's? That would be an environmental catastrophe I would think(like Aral sea).

[Black Hole]

How did the lake shrink by 2/3's? That would be an environmental catastrophe I would think(like Aral sea).

The lake was at its highest level on record in the 1980s (modern times) so it was bound to come down some. However we have had significant drought for several years which is lowering the level, but also more water is being diverted from the rivers for other projects. In the absence of water diversion the lake would be a good deal higher than it is. 

[Kayla]

Woke up to about 4" of new snow this morning. Once again the NWS here missed this one. As expected, precip rates were high enough for the snow to accumulated at 33-34º during the heaviest precip and then dropped below freezing as the snow continued. Definitely pretty remarkable considering it was 75º yesterday afternoon!

 

Still looks like another shortwave pushes through later this afternoon into tonight that looks to drop another 3-5" of snowfall. 

[Kayla]

Beautiful sunrise this morning!

 

[epiceast]

Woke up to about 4" of new snow this morning. Once again the NWS here missed this one. As expected, precip rates were high enough for the snow to accumulated at 33-34º during the heaviest precip and then dropped below freezing as the snow continued. Definitely pretty remarkable considering it was 75º yesterday afternoon!

 

Still looks like another shortwave pushes through later this afternoon into tonight that looks to drop another 3-5" of snowfall. 

Yea looks like all of the valley got snowfall this time, it snowed quite a bit at the airport it looks like. So how much higher are you than Bozeman proper?

[Kayla]

Yea looks like all of the valley got snowfall this time, it snowed quite a bit at the airport it looks like. So how much higher are you than Bozeman proper?

 

The above picture is actually from our condo right in downtown Bozeman at 4,800'. We're building a new home just south of town at 5,350' where it looks like about 6-8" fell. Pretty decent storm!

[epiceast]

The above picture is actually from our condo right in downtown Bozeman at 4,800'. We're building a new home just south of town at 5,350' where it looks like about 6-8" fell. Pretty decent storm!

Nice! Looks like Butte got a decent dump(.4 qpf), maybe their biggest this season. Has to be a frustrating winter there, so cold and so dry.

[Kayla]

Another 3" of new snow fell here last night. Temps have really dropped off this morning, currently 20º.

 

[epiceast]

Another 3" of new snow fell here last night. Temps have really dropped off this morning, currently 20º.

 

EHr1AvA - Imgur.jpg

I swear you've seen more snow this April than Snowbowl has.

[Kayla]

I swear you've seen more snow this April than Snowbowl has.

 

Yeah it's been a decently active month but still nowhere even close to 2009 or 2011 on a snowfall perspective.

[Black Hole]

Next storm system rolls in tomorrow. Looking for thunderstorms and a few hours of moderate rain tomorrow, most models going 3/4-1" of precip. 

A short break, with another 1/4" or so on Thursday. This has been a nice spring for rain and it looks to continue. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next storm system rolls in tomorrow. Looking for thunderstorms and a few hours of moderate rain tomorrow, most models going 3/4-1" of precip.

 

A short break, with another 1/4" or so on Thursday. This has been a nice spring for rain and it looks to continue.

Plentiful precip is always welcome in the inter mountain west

[Black Hole]

Plentiful precip is always welcome in the inter mountain west

I've gotten so used to drought here its fun to have actual wet weather again! I think this will continue into mid May or so before things start to shut down for the summer. 

[Front Ranger]

Only about 1.4" of precip here since Feb 1. Average is about 3.5".

 

So far, this Feb/Mar/Apr is third driest on record at DEN, behind 2002 and 1982. 2002 ended up being the second driest year in DEN history. 1982 went on to be fairly wet the rest of the year.

[Kayla]

Getting at least a little precip about every other day here this month. 1.5" of precip this month with much more on the way over the next several days. Really starting to green up nicely out there now. 

 

Models are even beginning to hint at another decent snowstorm Thursday night into Friday morning. 

[Black Hole]

I had 2/3" of rain yesterday with some thunderstorms. Next chance of showers tomorrow. 

[Front Ranger]

I had 2/3" of rain yesterday with some thunderstorms. Next chance of showers tomorrow.

Nice. I'm on the wrong side of the mountains this year. Though it does look like we may get some showers over the next couple days.

[Black Hole]

Nice. I'm on the wrong side of the mountains this year. Though it does look like we may get some showers over the next couple days.

 

I've had 5.91" of rain in the last month. It's about as good as it gets around here and looks to continue the next 10+ days. 

[Guest happ]

I've had 5.91" of rain in the last month. It's about as good as it gets around here and looks to continue the next 10+ days. 

 

Wow, I just assumed that Utah was as dry as SoCal in March.

 

Lots of snow melt

[Guest happ]

Snow melt is conspicuous in Colorado but not as bad as New Mexico & Arizona

[Front Ranger]

 

[Black Hole]

Ended up with another 1/4" of rain yesterday. It will be dry for a few days, but I've had 6.16" in the last month now.

Should be dry for a few days but another 1-2" of rain will likely fall Mon-Fri next week with a series of storms. 

[Black Hole]

Still looking like a lot of rain, and perhaps some snow, this week. First chance of showers is this afternoon, but its small. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still looking like a lot of rain, and perhaps some snow, this week. First chance of showers is this afternoon, but its small.

You are still in Provo right?

[Black Hole]

You are still in Provo right?

I was in Provo from 2010-2013

West Valley City from 2013-2015

Bountiful from 2015 to present.

 

As far as climate goes, Bountiful has by far been my favorite. Its NNE of Salt Lake City. 

[Jesse]

I was in Provo from 2010-2013

West Valley City from 2013-2015

Bountiful from 2015 to present.

 

As far as climate goes, Bountiful has by far been my favorite. Its NNE of Salt Lake City.

Bountiful amounts of snow?

[Black Hole]

Bountiful amounts of snow?

 

I am not 100% sure, but I would estimate my house is probably 75 inches or so, but it might actually be higher even. The airport averages like 58 and I know this location is much snowier than there. The PRISM data shows that the airport averages closer to 15" of liquid annually while my area is maybe 23" or so. 

 

This year the total snow is 51.3" at the airport to my 95", so its been quite different. I didn't keep stats last year to know how much the difference was. I will also add that areas further up the hill are significantly snowier than my house, perhaps 15-30% more snow.