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Mountain West Discussion

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#2551
Front Ranger

Posted 05 January 2018 - 07:34 PM

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I don't want to jinx it, but it looks like we'll finally get a decent storm here next week with the system moving off the Pacific into CA. Looks juicy, but probably borderline temps for snow.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2552
Mercurial

Posted 08 January 2018 - 01:04 PM

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We keep getting wet, heavy snow on top of our powder.  Every inch of new snow seems to weigh our snowpack downward.  Ski resort problems lol :/



#2553
Mercurial

Posted 08 January 2018 - 01:06 PM

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Also, we have less than 50% cloud cover for the first time in weeks (months?).  If we can keep this up for the rest of the day, I'm counting this as our first sunny day since September/October/whenever we last had a sunny day.  (during the monster ridge last month, we just had fog/inversions the whole time)



#2554
Mercurial

Posted 08 January 2018 - 01:07 PM

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We suck worse than the Pac NW lowlands when it comes to sun.  We're basically always overcast in the winter except when a massive western trough comes through and pushes all the moisture way south of here.  Of course, the same trough will inevitably knock temps way below zero.

 

In unrelated news, NWS point and click looks good here  :)  Warm temps + snow means the gapers are gonna be out in full force bigly next weekend.

 

Tonight
Snow likely after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow. High near 32. South wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Tuesday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Southwest wind around 10 mph becoming east northeast in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 23. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 17. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow. High near 26. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow. Low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Friday
Snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25.

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#2555
Black Hole

Posted 08 January 2018 - 05:10 PM

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Looks like rain to snow across northern Utah tomorrow into Wednesday. Maybe 1-2" in the valley if all goes well. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5"

Total: 13.8"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#2556
Kayla

Posted 09 January 2018 - 08:15 AM

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Our 10 day snow drought is coming to end by tonight here in Bozeman. Expecting up to a foot of snow here by Friday, most of which should fall tonight. NWS is going pretty conservative with 3-6" for Bozeman while the ECMWF/GFS/GEM show 6-10" in town. Looks like the snow could be quite heavy after midnight tonight into tomorrow morning before tapering by late morning. Another system moves in Thursday but it looks like only 1-3" with that one as of right now.

 

Really looking forward to the fresh snow as our snow base here has transformed with the cool nights and warm days we've been having here over the last few days.


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#2557
Front Ranger

Posted 09 January 2018 - 03:50 PM

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I don't want to jinx it, but it looks like we'll finally get a decent storm here next week with the system moving off the Pacific into CA. Looks juicy, but probably borderline temps for snow.

 

I jinxed it! Looks like 0-1" with this storm for me.  <_<

 

Easily the worst winter I've seen here in my 11 years, so far.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2558
Kayla

Posted 09 January 2018 - 04:22 PM

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I jinxed it! Looks like 0-1" with this storm for me.  <_<

 

Easily the worst winter I've seen here in my 11 years, so far.

 

Wow, you guys just can't catch a break! Been seeing lots of Colorado plates up this way. Resorts and ski shops in town have seen a big uptick in business cause the snow is so bad in the rest of the West. 


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#2559
Front Ranger

Posted 09 January 2018 - 05:44 PM

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Wow, you guys just can't catch a break! Been seeing lots of Colorado plates up this way. Resorts and ski shops in town have seen a big uptick in business cause the snow is so bad in the rest of the West. 

 

I don't doubt it. With Ninas, we need deep, full-latitude western troughing like 2007-08, 2011-12, or 2013-14 to do well. I think the second half will be much better than the first half here, similar to 2012-13, 2008-09, 2005-06, 1984-85, etc.

 

Black Hole, how is the snow looking in the ski resorts in your area? I have a trip booked for Park City in a couple weeks.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2560
Kayla

Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:14 AM

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Been getting dumped on here all morning. Looks like about 8" of new snow on the ground since just 5am with heavy snow continuing. 

 

Currently 25F and dropping.


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Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#2561
Mercurial

Posted 10 January 2018 - 03:39 PM

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NICE!

 

In related news, lol at the WWA for the Flathead Valley for tomorrow.  3-6" with up to 12" possible.  Talk about a cop out forecast.  :ph34r:



#2562
Mercurial

Posted 10 January 2018 - 03:52 PM

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For the Flathead Valley, according to NWS Missoula, tomorrow into tomorrow night:

 

WWA: 3-6"

AFD: ~10"

Image they just posted to Facebook last hour: 8-12"

Point and click: 6-14"

 

Lol what a spread.  



#2563
Kayla

Posted 10 January 2018 - 06:09 PM

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For the Flathead Valley, according to NWS Missoula, tomorrow into tomorrow night:

 

WWA: 3-6"

AFD: ~10"

Image they just posted to Facebook last hour: 8-12"

Point and click: 6-14"

 

Lol what a spread.  

 

Sounds about right! Bozeman and West Yellowstone gets basically ignored down here by the Great Falls NWS as our climate is so much different than the rest of their area. Oh well, just glad I can read the models myself!


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#2564
Kayla

Posted 10 January 2018 - 06:31 PM

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Ended up with 10" here. We're pretty buried here at this point as you can see. In town Nordic trails are AMAZING with about a 20" base now.

 
16ii8ud.jpg15qrg1w.jpg

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Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#2565
Front Ranger

Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:55 PM

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I miss snow.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2566
Black Hole

Posted 10 January 2018 - 10:03 PM

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I miss snow.

I am heading back to SLC on Saturday. I was sure when I left for 3 weeks I would miss some good storms but nope, just 1.5". What a horrid winter this has been. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5"

Total: 13.8"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#2567
Black Hole

Posted 10 January 2018 - 10:05 PM

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I don't doubt it. With Ninas, we need deep, full-latitude western troughing like 2007-08, 2011-12, or 2013-14 to do well. I think the second half will be much better than the first half here, similar to 2012-13, 2008-09, 2005-06, 1984-85, etc.

 

Black Hole, how is the snow looking in the ski resorts in your area? I have a trip booked for Park City in a couple weeks.

 

If you can elaborate on your thoughts for the 2nd half I would love to hear it.

As for the resorts they are doing surprising "ok" considering the severe lack of winter. It has been cold enough to produce a lot of artificial snow. In that sense the skiing isn't good but its doable. The storm coming up next week should help too. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5"

Total: 13.8"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#2568
Black Hole

Posted 10 January 2018 - 10:08 PM

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Ended up with 10" here. We're pretty buried here at this point as you can see. In town Nordic trails are AMAZING with about a 20" base now.

 
16ii8ud.jpg15qrg1w.jpg

 

What kind of place is this?? I can't believe how much snow you get. Every pattern this winter, no matter what it is, somehow results in you getting dumped on. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5"

Total: 13.8"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#2569
Kayla

Posted 11 January 2018 - 08:10 AM

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What kind of place is this?? I can't believe how much snow you get. Every pattern this winter, no matter what it is, somehow results in you getting dumped on. 

 

Its definitely been a great winter but not completely unheard of for up here...yet! Up to 110" of snowfall on the season at my house when the yearly average is probably about that. 83" of snowfall in downtown Bozeman on the season while they average 90" for the year. Bozeman yearly snowfall record is 158" so they have a ways to go but it is only mid January.

 

So, no doubt we are running well above average but not quite record breaking thus far. We're only about 10 minutes south of Bozeman but the added 500' in elevation and sitting up against the Gallatin Mountain range helps with orographic lift and aiding snowfall totals.  


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Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#2570
Front Ranger

Posted 11 January 2018 - 11:24 AM

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Its definitely been a great winter but not completely unheard of for up here...yet! Up to 110" of snowfall on the season at my house when the yearly average is probably about that. 83" of snowfall in downtown Bozeman on the season while they average 90" for the year. Bozeman yearly snowfall record is 158" so they have a ways to go but it is only mid January.

 

So, no doubt we are running well above average but not quite record breaking thus far. We're only about 10 minutes south of Bozeman but the added 500' in elevation and sitting up against the Gallatin Mountain range helps with orographic lift and aiding snowfall totals.  

 

This reminds me so much of my first winter here, 2006-07. Started early and set all kinds of records as far as total snowfall through Oct-Jan, number of big storms, snow cover (both depth and time), etc. It was a very special winter for the area and I was lucky to get here just in time to experience it. But it definitely has not been the norm!


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#2571
Mercurial

Posted 12 January 2018 - 03:45 PM

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Been a long time since we've had snowpack like this, although the last two winters were pretty good as well (IIRC we had AN snowpack even in the 2015/2016 super nino fiasco, although it melted very quickly in March/April).

 

mt_swepctnormal_update.png


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#2572
crf450ish

Posted 15 January 2018 - 06:30 AM

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Ended up with 10" here. We're pretty buried here at this point as you can see. In town Nordic trails are AMAZING with about a 20" base now.

16ii8ud.jpg15qrg1w.jpg


That’s how it was at my house in Northeastern wa state last winter. Snowfall after snowfall after snowfall. It was epic. Ended up with a hair under 36” of actual snowpack in my front yard towards the middle of March just before it warmed up and began melting. And it melted quickly! Lol

#2573
Black Hole

Posted 15 January 2018 - 07:18 AM

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The cold air that will be blasting Montana will trickle into Utah a bit on Tuesday but shouldn't do much other than some enhanced canyon winds. 

Next storm system arrives Friday into Saturday. Right now the model spread is between decent and great snowfall but probably at  least something. Most guidance in the 3-6" but a few runs that keep NW flow going longer have had over a foot. We can hope.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5"

Total: 13.8"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#2574
Kayla

Posted 15 January 2018 - 07:27 AM

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That’s how it was at my house in Northeastern wa state last winter. Snowfall after snowfall after snowfall. It was epic. Ended up with a hair under 36” of actual snowpack in my front yard towards the middle of March just before it warmed up and began melting. And it melted quickly! Lol

 

Wow, that's impressive. Even with 110" of snowfall on the season so far our snowpack hasn't gone over 24" as the dry snow compacts quickly here and we've had quite a few downsloping (Chinook winds) events this season mixed in as well. 

 

How much snow pack do you have there now?


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#2575
Kayla

Posted 15 January 2018 - 07:30 AM

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The cold air that will be blasting Montana will trickle into Utah a bit on Tuesday but shouldn't do much other than some enhanced canyon winds. 

Next storm system arrives Friday into Saturday. Right now the model spread is between decent and great snowfall but probably at  least something. Most guidance in the 3-6" but a few runs that keep NW flow going longer have had over a foot. We can hope.

 

That same system looks to come through here Thursday night into Friday and be pretty strong up this way as well. Nice to see it not splitting for once and maintaining its strength into UT/CO!


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Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#2576
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 15 January 2018 - 07:48 AM

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It snows way more in Bozeman than I ever realized! I guess I assumed the climate was a little drier there then it apparently is...

Snowfall

2017-18: 0.8"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#2577
Front Ranger

Posted 15 January 2018 - 11:37 AM

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Actually feels like winter today. Snow showers and 19 degrees currently.
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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2578
Kayla

Posted 15 January 2018 - 07:33 PM

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It snows way more in Bozeman than I ever realized! I guess I assumed the climate was a little drier there then it apparently is...

 

Shhhh...don't tell the snow weenies!! 

 

In all seriousness, even the 90" of yearly snowfall average is probably a little underdone with plenty of M's (missing data) on the climate sheets for Bozeman proper. Even just a couple miles south of downtown you'll see snowfall totals quickly rise to over 100-110" a year on average.

 

Things also really "green up" here come June and stay that way through the summer with a decent amount of summer storms and rain unlike the Portland area where the grasses brown up by late July which makes me sad. 


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Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#2579
crf450ish

Posted 16 January 2018 - 05:07 AM

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Wow, that's impressive. Even with 110" of snowfall on the season so far our snowpack hasn't gone over 24" as the dry snow compacts quickly here and we've had quite a few downsloping (Chinook winds) events this season mixed in as well.

How much snow pack do you have there now?


Not even 10”. 35 degree rain and multiple days with dew points in the 40’s ate up the 15” that was there
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#2580
Front Ranger

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:37 AM

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Low of -4 at DEN this AM, 0 at my house. The -4 ties DEN's coldest low of the winter so far.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2581
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 17 January 2018 - 06:40 AM

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Low of -4 at DEN this AM, 0 at my house. The -4 ties DEN's coldest low of the winter so far.


Pretty weak sauce. I remember being in Denver in late 2015 and it was -14

Snowfall

2017-18: 0.8"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#2582
Front Ranger

Posted 17 January 2018 - 02:01 PM

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Pretty weak sauce. I remember being in Denver in late 2015 and it was -14


Yup.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2583
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 17 January 2018 - 05:49 PM

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It has been quite a crummy season for most of the intermountain west (except for the far north), the southwest, and for California so far. I hope we get a major change in the pattern that brings some beneficial low elevation rains and mountain snow to the Rockies and Sierras. 


  • happ likes this

#2584
Black Hole

Posted 17 January 2018 - 07:07 PM

Black Hole

    Daily Contributor

  • Admin
  • 1344 posts
  • LocationBountiful, Ut 84010 ~4575ft

A decent storm is still on track to roll in here Friday night into Saturday. Most model guidance suggesting 4-8" but some splitting is possible so I won't get too excited yet.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5"

Total: 13.8"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F