Mountain West Discussion

[DareDuck]

Yeah the snowfall above 6,000' has been truly impressive. It was a little funny to see some pictures from the fire fighters playing in the snow where 10-12" fell over what was a pretty active fire burning in the Crazy Mountains (Blacktail fire). Tough to find hot spots in nearly knee deep snow!

That's what happened at the Nash fire. 15" of snow so they decided not to send anyone out. Doubt there's much activity anyways.

[Kayla]

We're under a Winter Weather Advisory beginning at 6pm tonight through tomorrow for 1-4" of snowfall in Bozeman. Cold air is slowly settling in with 700mb temps at -5C currently. Upper air and surface temps should continue to drop this evening when we should see the changeover to accumulating snow by late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

 

I'm thinking Bozeman is more likely to see 1-2" of snow with temps being really borderline through the event. I should stay all snow beginning around 6-7pm so I think 3-5" is a good forecast for here.

 

Currently 37F with light rain.

[Black Hole]

Low 50s in SLC today with NW winds blowing. The surface front is to my SE, but the colder air is still to the NW where the upper level front exists. It is stalled out and dumping heavy rain over the NW part of the state. It will weaken but slide into the area this evening with some rain. Up in the mountains a WWA is posted for 4-8" above 7k feet. 

[Front Ranger]

On this last day of official summer, DEN hit 92, one degree short of the record. Thankfully, fall-like weather is on the way, with highs in the 50s expected for Mon and Tue next week.

[Black Hole]

Due to heavy precip dragging down the snow level I am at 37F, but with snow mixing in with the rain. Very unusual for around here and the earliest I have ever seen flakes!

[DareDuck]

We're under a Winter Weather Advisory beginning at 6pm tonight through tomorrow for 1-4" of snowfall in Bozeman. Cold air is slowly settling in with 700mb temps at -5C currently. Upper air and surface temps should continue to drop this evening when we should see the changeover to accumulating snow by late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

 

I'm thinking Bozeman is more likely to see 1-2" of snow with temps being really borderline through the event. I should stay all snow beginning around 6-7pm so I think 3-5" is a good forecast for here.

 

Currently 37F with light rain.

How much did you get?

[Front Ranger]

How much did you get?

 

Probably not much, if anything...looks like the airport has only seen rain and temps in the upper 30s.

[BLI snowman]

I will be in Denver next week. Should bring some PNW drizzle with me.

[Black Hole]

Never turned over to all snow last night, but it was definitely fun and surprising to see snow in the air. We have one more system that will move through on Sat-Sun before things dry out and warm up again...however summer temperatures are definitely over.

[Black Hole]

I will be in Denver next week. Should bring some PNW drizzle with me.

How long will you be out there? I am headed over that way for a few days on October 3rd. 

[BLI snowman]

How long will you be out there? I am headed over that way for a few days on October 3rd. 

 

Until the 30th. Hoping to see some early fall color in the mountains.

[Kayla]

How much did you get?

 

Yeah not much. About 0.5" at the house and downtown didn't see anything. Lots of snow in the air but just not sticking with such warm soil temps and lack of heavier precip rates.

 

Brings my season snowfall total up to a whopping 1.5"! Nontheless, it's been a cold stretch for September. Only 40F/32F yesterday.

[Kayla]

Made it up to Palisade Falls and Hyalite Canyon south of Bozeman yesterday and it sure was beautiful!

 

 

[Black Hole]

Until the 30th. Hoping to see some early fall color in the mountains.

In the mountains to the east of my house I can see plenty of color, and even in the valleys where I live its starting to change over so my guess is that you will do well with that. 

[Front Ranger]

Until the 30th. Hoping to see some early fall color in the mountains.

Anywhere above 8000' is good now.

[Black Hole]

Tonights storm system looks like it could be quite wet. A TROWAL feature will develop with warm and moist air wrapping around from the SE over the area. Heavy precipitation will result. It is cold enough aloft that, as a few nights ago, the snow level may be pushed down to the hills from diabatic cooling. ECMWF shows 1" of snow at my house tonight. 

[Front Ranger]

The cool has arrived here. Currently 51 with rain.

[BLI snowman]

Just got in and it seems like tonight's rain has overachieved a bit. Going to wind up with close to an inch and some pretty low snow levels.

[Front Ranger]

Just got in and it seems like tonight's rain has overachieved a bit. Going to wind up with close to an inch and some pretty low snow levels.

 

Yeah, quite the soaker today. Ended up with .72" in my backyard, with about 5-6 hours of steady rain.

[Black Hole]

I ended up with .67" at my place for this storm, with some parts of SLC seeing about 1.5" of rain.

In the mountains over a foot fell at the higher elevations. 

[Kayla]

The noteworthy long cold stretch continued here today with a 52F/27F day IMBY.

 

Bozeman MSU over the past 12 days has averaged a -11F departure. Pretty impressive for mid-late September!

 

Another below average day tomorrow and Wednesday then should finally warm to near normal for Thursday and Friday. It's been a while!

[Front Ranger]

Not very impressive lows here, but highs of 52, 48, and 53 the past three days. Pretty sharp contrast to the mid 80s to low 90s we saw last week.

[Black Hole]

For the period of September 21-25 I had:
21: 54/37 (.46" and Trace of snow)
22: 50/35 (.05")

23: 52/41 (.21")

24: 44/37 (.45")

25: 61/41 (.01")

Pretty amazing cold stretch for this time of year, especially the high of 44F I observed on the 24th. 

[Front Ranger]

I will be in Denver next week. Should bring some PNW drizzle with me.

 

It's certainly worked out that way! This has probably been the cloudiest stretch here in at least 3-4 months. I've only seen the sun for an hour or two since Friday evening. Looks like it will stay that way for a couple more days.

[BLI snowman]

It's certainly worked out that way! This has probably been the cloudiest stretch here in at least 3-4 months. I've only seen the sun for an hour or two since Friday evening. Looks like it will stay that way for a couple more days.

 

Yeah, it's been cloudy the entire time that I've been here aside from a half hour or so. Figured it would work out that way. Was out at RMNP today and it was totally socked in.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, it's been cloudy the entire time that I've been here aside from a half hour or so. Figured it would work out that way. Was out at RMNP today and it was totally socked in.

 

I've still never been to CO. I had a trip planned to Denver/Rocky Mtn National park last summer but everyone's plans changed. Just not meant to be. 

[BLI snowman]

I've still never been to CO. I had a trip planned to Denver/Rocky Mtn National park last summer but everyone's plans changed. Just not meant to be. 

 

First chance that I've gotten to spend any real time in the area. Denver seems like a pretty decent town but definitely is not on the overall aesthetic level of Portland or Seattle. The outlying areas are a nice variety though and the park is worth it if you get a good couple days to explore.

 

Seeing the NCAR campus in Boulder was also interesting, their public library had lots of good stuff. 

[wx_statman]

First chance that I've gotten to spend any real time in the area. Denver seems like a pretty decent town but definitely is not on the overall aesthetic level of Portland or Seattle. The outlying areas are a nice variety though and the park is worth it if you get a good couple days to explore.

 

Seeing the NCAR campus in Boulder was also interesting, their public library had lots of good stuff. 

 

That's really cool. Probably worth a visit on its own.

[Front Ranger]

First chance that I've gotten to spend any real time in the area. Denver seems like a pretty decent town but definitely is not on the overall aesthetic level of Portland or Seattle. The outlying areas are a nice variety though and the park is worth it if you get a good couple days to explore.

 

Seeing the NCAR campus in Boulder was also interesting, their public library had lots of good stuff. 

 

Yep, been there a few times. Lots of good hikes from there as well.

[Kayla]

Well, all of a sudden it's looking like snow is back in the forecast for here beginning on Monday. The ECMWF was the first to latch onto the idea and now the 00z GFS is showing the same. The ECMWF is a lot more aggressive with snowfall amounts compared to the GFS but either way, it's suddenly looking like it could be a decent early season snow event down to the valley's.

[Front Ranger]

First chance that I've gotten to spend any real time in the area. Denver seems like a pretty decent town but definitely is not on the overall aesthetic level of Portland or Seattle. The outlying areas are a nice variety though and the park is worth it if you get a good couple days to explore.

 

Seeing the NCAR campus in Boulder was also interesting, their public library had lots of good stuff. 

 

I agree overall due to the lack of water (Seattle is above Portland to me because of more water, mountains on both sides, and superior skyline), but you've missed the typical mountain backdrop of the area so far due to the cloudiness.

[BLI snowman]

I agree overall due to the lack of water (Seattle is above Portland to me because of more water, mountains on both sides, and superior skyline), but you've missed the typical mountain backdrop of the area so far due to the cloudiness.

 

Yeah, it's also just a lot flatter and less geographically diverse overall than the big PNW cities, with few native trees (Denver is the edge of the grasslands). Denver is unique in that it's kind of a combo between a Midwest aesthetic and a more typical Western one.  I  haven't been able to see the Front Range from the city these last few days, but I think it'll be a bit sunnier later in the week. 

[Black Hole]

Active pattern looks to keep going with multiple rain chances. Some of the troughs coming could be borderline rain/snow for me as well if it works out right.

 

I am pretty sure if this keeps up one of these troughs will deliver and I will see accumulating snow as we get into October; average first accumulating snow at the airport is Nov 8. 

[Kayla]

Trend is definitely our friend with snow chances going up and temps going down for early next week here. North Central MT looks like they could be the big winners with this system with widespread 10-12" of snowfall being shown on the ECMWF now. "Only" around 4" for the Bozeman airport (BZN) but even just a very slight shift south would greatly increase the snow amounts down this way as well.

 

ECMWF spits out a 34F/29F day on Tuesday at BZN. Also shows a low of 16F on Wednesday morning which would be a new record low for the date. Outside chance I could see single digits by Wednesday morning as well.

 

Winter has arrived very early this year! 

[Front Ranger]

Haven't been above 62 here since last Friday. Easily the coolest week of September I've seen in my 11 years here.

[Kayla]

There is definitely a battle going on between the ECMWF and GFS for next weeks system.

 

The ECMWF shows 4-6" of snowfall for Bozeman. The GFS shows just a trace as the moisture just never really wraps around far enough south and the system loses upper level support for the Bozeman area.

 

Meanwhile the 12km NAM looks even further south compared to the ECMWF and drops 4-6" as well through hour 84. Will be interesting to see what the 00z runs show tonight.

[Guest happ]

More from Bear Lake Valley

 

[Kayla]

A pretty major fall snow storm is setting up currently around the Great Falls area this evening. They're under a Winter Storm Warning for 8-12" of snowfall through Tuesday morning. 

 

As for Bozeman it's looking like we'll be on the southern fringes of the storm so we'll see smaller impacts but still noteworthy for this early in the season. I'm already seeing some snow showers beginning tonight but not expecting significant snow accumulations until tomorrow afternoon down here as temps are pretty marginal (36F currently). Expecting about 2-4" in town and 3-5" on my rooftop when all is said and done late Tuesday morning. Temps will likely climb into the low 40's by early afternoon tomorrow but should begin to plummet into the 20's as the snow bands move in during the late afternoon. 

 

Following the storm, Tuesday should be the coldest day and night of the season with highs only topping out in the low to mid 30's and lows dropping into the 10's by Wednesday morning.

[Kayla]

Latest 00z 3km NAM shows a very broad area of snowfall for Montana over the next 36 hours. Going to look quite wintery around here come Tuesday!

 

[TT-SEA]

Latest 00z 3km NAM shows a very broad area of snowfall for Montana over the next 36 hours. Going to look quite wintery around here come Tuesday!

 

Screen Shot 2017-10-01 at 8.31.39 PM.png

 

We talked about this a few days ago when our big storm shown in the models starting tonight and going through Tuesday just vanished.   We win and you win.