Mountain West Discussion

[wx_statman]

Yeah, that was an oddball with a lot of split flow and slightly unfavorable blocking. The November/December cold period was epic in the Midwest and Rockies but missed greatness here by a few hundred miles.

 

That's right, I remember. Nov-Dec 2000 was actually the coldest on record nationally back to 1895. 

[TT-SEA]

Only meaningful snow of the winter for you in Feb/Mar, though.

Thats OK.

 

I enjoy any winter that does not feature endless rain. I am easy!

[wx_statman]

On the other hand, 2000-01 was at the tail end of a strong, multi-year Nina. Also during rising, very active solar cycle. 

 

However, back on the original hand, the summer of 2000 was fairly similar nationally - though not locally in the PNW.

 

Definitely a polar opposite summer to this year in the PNW. That 1999-2001 stretch was similar to the mid-1970's multi year Nina here, with bland winters but also cool summers. 

[wx_statman]

This is great info. Seems like the main difference this year is that in 2000 we were coming out of a major Niña whereas now we're coming out of weak Niña then to neutral warm and now neutral cold. Tough to find similar ENSO behavior recently. 

 

Yeah, there are definitely enough differences between this year and 2000 that I wouldn't put any money on repeating that winter's progression. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I saw as of last night Have, MT had 14.8" of snow which pretty much doubled their previous October daily record. 

[BLI snowman]

That's right, I remember. Nov-Dec 2000 was actually the coldest on record nationally back to 1895. 

 

Most impressive cold period nationally in the 2000s.

[Kayla]

I saw as of last night Have, MT had 14.8" of snow which pretty much doubled their previous October daily record. 

 

Yeah, will be interesting to see what the final tally is up there once they get their power back on. Really unprecedented for October.

[Scott]

A few photos I took yesterday out the window of the condo:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Definitely a polar opposite summer to this year in the PNW. That 1999-2001 stretch was similar to the mid-1970's multi year Nina here, with bland winters but also cool summers. 

 

Yep. Knowing that, I was kind of surprised to see the overall similarities nationally.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Most impressive cold period nationally in the 2000s.

 

I'd imagine the next 2 after that would be March-May 2008 and October-December 2009.

[wx_statman]

Yep. Knowing that, I was kind of surprised to see the overall similarities nationally.

 

2000.png

 

2017.png

 

Looks like the ridging was displaced further west this summer, but yeah a similar signal overall on the national scale. 

[BLI snowman]

I'd imagine the next 2 after that would be March-May 2008 and October-December 2009.

 

I think October 2009 and August 2004, which were the 4th and 5th coldest on record, respectively.

[wx_statman]

I think October 2009 and August 2004, which were the 4th and 5th coldest on record, respectively.

 

That month was a high-latitude blocking wet dream. Kind of foreshadowed the deep -AO that would follow during the winter of 2009-10. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was living in Oklahoma during October 2009, I believe it was their coolest October on record. Tulsa ran like a -10 monthly departure. 

[Front Ranger]

I was living in Oklahoma during October 2009, I believe it was their coolest October on record. Tulsa ran like a -10 monthly departure. 

 

I remember it was 2nd coldest on record in Denver.

[Guest happ]

Yep. Knowing that, I was kind of surprised to see the overall similarities nationally.

 

2000.png

 

2017.png

 

2017 was a miserable summer I'd like to forget. 2000 produced over 18" [normal rainfall] 

[wx_statman]

Up to 30" may have fallen at Rocky Boy, Montana, to the south of Havre. Depending on the accuracy of the report of course. 

 

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/rockies-snow-montana-colorado-wyoming-early-october-2017

[wx_statman]

I was living in Oklahoma during October 2009, I believe it was their coolest October on record. Tulsa ran like a -10 monthly departure. 

 

That was a good stretch for winter weather in Oklahoma. Two of the greatest snowstorms on record for the state (March 2009 and Feb 2011) plus the state record low in Feb 2011. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That was a good stretch for winter weather in Oklahoma. Two of the greatest snowstorms on record for the state (March 2009 and Feb 2011) plus the state record low in Feb 2011. 

 

I was in Oregon during March 2009, but there was actually a nice 6" snow event in March 2010, I visited Oklahoma in March 2009 about a week before the snowstorm, it was sunny and in the 70s the whole week I was there. 

 

Winter 2009-10 was very cold and snowy. And then 2010-11 put it to shame. I lived in Bartlesville which hit -27 or -28, Nowata where the record was set was about 15 miles east. Of course I was back in Oregon by then.

[Black Hole]

I am in Boulder for the next couple of days up at NCAR. This is my first time here, but I like the area. 

[Front Ranger]

I am in Boulder for the next couple of days up at NCAR. This is my first time here, but I like the area. 

 

Nice! Just a couple miles from where I work. Tomorrow should be a gorgeous fall day with fresh snow on the mountains.

[wx_statman]

It's a cold night in north-central MT in areas that cleared out with the snow on the ground. 

 

Currently 7 degrees at a CWOP station 5 miles NW of Chester, 8 degrees at Tiber Dam, and 9 degrees in the town of Chester itself. Havre saw a midnight low of 15...will be interesting to see where they end up by morning. 

 

Incidentally, Chester hit 2 degrees on 10/5/2000 in that airmass that I mentioned earlier today. That's their earliest sub-7 reading...the Chester COOP definitely has a shot of breaking that by morning given the other temperatures in the area. 

[Phil]

On the other hand, 2000-01 was at the tail end of a strong, multi-year Nina. Also during rising, very active solar cycle.

 

However, back on the original hand, the summer of 2000 was fairly similar nationally - though not locally in the PNW.

2000/01 was also a -QBO, FWIW. I think that easily outweighs any hangover effects from previous years' ENSO states, assuming such a hangover exists.

[Kayla]

Looks like Havre Airport got down to 7F this morning which blows away the daily record low of 13F set back in...you guessed it, 2000. Bozeman airport made it down 19F and I made it down to 18F.

 

Of note, Bozeman MSU officially recorded 1.4" of snowfall yesterday and a -19 degree temperature departure.

[wx_statman]

Looks like Havre Airport got down to 7F this morning which blows away the daily record low of 13F set back in...you guessed it, 2000. Bozeman airport made it down 19F and I made it down to 18F.

 

Of note, Bozeman MSU officially recorded 1.4" of snowfall yesterday and a -19 degree temperature departure.

 

We don't know that yet. 

 

The 7F obs you see on the metar's are derived from rounded C values. Observation was "-14C", meaning it was anywhere between -14.4C and -13.5C, i.e. all we know is that the reading was between 6.1F and 7.7F. So, if the actual reading was between 7.5F and 7.7F it would still show as "7F" on the raw 5-minute metar's even though the temperature never fell below 8F officially. Need to wait until the 10:53 asos to know the real minimum between the hourly obs. 

 

This is the "C to F" rounding error that we constantly refer to when looking at intermediary metars. 

[wx_statman]

Regardless of whether Havre landed on 7F or 8F this morning, today is the earliest single digits for Havre in a period of record that extends back to 1880. Previously the record was on October 5th, with a reading of 4F on 10/5/1916 and also 6F on 10/5/2000. 

[TT-SEA]

Regardless of whether Havre landed on 7F or 8F this morning, today is the earliest single digits for Havre in a period of record that extends back to 1880. Previously the record was on October 5th, with a reading of 4F on 10/5/1916 and also 6F on 10/5/2000. 

 

Global warming!!  

[BLI snowman]

I am in Boulder for the next couple of days up at NCAR. This is my first time here, but I like the area. 

 

Doing research or just visiting?

[Kayla]

We don't know that yet. 

 

The 7F obs you see on the metar's are derived from rounded C values. Observation was "-14C", meaning it was anywhere between -14.4C and -13.5C, i.e. all we know is that the reading was between 6.1F and 7.7F. So, if the actual reading was between 7.5F and 7.7F it would still show as "7F" on the raw 5-minute metar's even though the temperature never fell below 8F officially. Need to wait until the 10:53 asos to know the real minimum between the hourly obs. 

 

This is the "C to F" rounding error that we constantly refer to when looking at intermediary metars. 

 

Yeah I'm well aware of the rounding error. I was just noting that "it looks like" they dropped down to 7 degrees this morning somewhere between 0730-0750. Heck, they may have even dropped down to 6 degrees! But yes, we'll know the official report in a little bit.

[wx_statman]

Yeah I'm well aware of the rounding error. I was just noting that "it looks like" they dropped down to 7 degrees this morning somewhere between 0730-0750. Heck, they may have even dropped down to 6 degrees! But yes, we'll know the official report in a little bit.

Ok, sorry for assuming you didn’t know.

 

Usually around here we say “looks like” when something has actually happened. Figure of speech.

[Kayla]

Ok, sorry for assuming you didn’t know.

 

Usually around here we say “looks like” when something has actually happened. Figure of speech.

 

All water under the bridge at this point, they hit 6F this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

All water under the bridge at this point, they hit 6F this morning. 

 

 

Havre, MT is now officially removed from my list of potential places to live!  

[wx_statman]

All water under the bridge at this point, they hit 6F this morning. 

 

Very nice. Hard to believe but they had never been below 12F before tomorrow's date, so they really shattered the early season record. 

[Scott]

Regardless of whether Havre landed on 7F or 8F this morning, today is the earliest single digits for Havre in a period of record that extends back to 1880. Previously the record was on October 5th, with a reading of 4F on 10/5/1916 and also 6F on 10/5/2000. 

 

I just noticed that the record for 10/10/1927 is -18!

[wx_statman]

I just noticed that the record for 10/10/1927 is -18!

 

Where did you see that? The lowest temperature in Havre that month was 10F on the 31st.

 

Havre did record an incredible -16F on October 13, 1881. That's by far their coldest early season temperature on record.

[Kayla]

Pretty potent little low up here today. Forecast was for rain and warmer temperatures today but it's been snowing off on all afternoon and now into this evening.

 

Nothing really sticking but a rather chilly day for early October as I recorded a 38F/18F today. Even Bozeman MSU pulled off a 40F/19F good enough for a -20 departure on the day. It literally feels like we skipped right over Fall and straight into winter this year.

 

So now a very cold start to October continues after the switch was flipped mid last month. As of right now and given the forecast, we may give 1925 (35.2 mean) a run for it's money for second coldest October month on record in Bozeman. The 32.1º mean temp in 1919 will likely be VERY tough to beat however.

[Black Hole]

Doing research or just visiting?

Research. My phd work is using data assimilation to study interactions between the LLJ, cold pools, and convection in the Great Plains. There are some people here who support a data assimilation system called DART and they are showing me how to set it up so I can use it for my work.

[Black Hole]

It was a nice day in Boulder. Sunny and warm. Everybody was saying how miserable its been and they were happy to see some sun. 

[Kayla]

Plenty of record lows set this morning in Central Montana.

 

[wx_statman]

Pretty potent little low up here today. Forecast was for rain and warmer temperatures today but it's been snowing off on all afternoon and now into this evening.

 

Nothing really sticking but a rather chilly day for early October as I recorded a 38F/18F today. Even Bozeman MSU pulled off a 40F/19F good enough for a -20 departure on the day. It literally feels like we skipped right over Fall and straight into winter this year.

 

So now a very cold start to October continues after the switch was flipped mid last month. As of right now and given the forecast, we may give 1925 (35.2 mean) a run for it's money for second coldest October month on record in Bozeman. The 32.1º mean temp in 1919 will likely be VERY tough to beat however.

 

Pretty amazing gradient between the three coldest Octobers in Bozeman.

 

32.1 (1919)

35.2 (1925)

38.0 (1913)

 

You don't often see that anywhere.